Premier League · St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne · Matchday 7 · Saturday 17 October 2026, 17:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Newcastle United v Aston Villa, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
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Odds correct at 11:45 on 16 Oct. Returns include the stake.
Under 4.5 Goals at 1/5 covers every Newcastle win to nil up to 4-0, so this leg only bites on five goals or more. That happened in two of Newcastle’s last six league matches and one of Aston Villa’s, and neither side reached six goals in that run.
Newcastle United to win at 5/4 is the result the rest of this bet hangs on. Over their last six league matches they went two wins, two draws and two defeats, while Aston Villa managed one win, two draws and three defeats, and Newcastle’s 1.67 goals a game sits against Villa’s one. The doubt is what Newcastle let in: 2.17 goals a game across that run, including a 4-1 defeat to Coventry City on 12 October. At home they are unbeaten in three, but two of those were draws.
Both teams scored in five of Newcastle United’s last six league matches and Newcastle kept one clean sheet in that run, so this is the leg most likely to beat the bet. Alongside a Newcastle win it means Aston Villa scoring nothing at all, and the case rests on Villa rather than on Newcastle’s defence: they failed to score in three of their last six league games, and both teams scored in only half of them.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 6
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last six Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 6 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 12 October 2026)
The record
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Newcastle United home / Aston Villa away | 1-2-0 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.83 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.67 | 1 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 2 (3) | 1 (3) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 1.67 (3) | 2 (3) |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 |
Venue row is Newcastle United at home and Aston Villa away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 83% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 100% (3) | 67% (3) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 67% | 50% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides went over 2.5 goals in more than 60% of these matches.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 100% (3) | 33% (3) |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 |
Last 5 meetings (Newcastle United’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 5 |
| Newcastle United wins / draws / Aston Villa wins | 2-1-2 |
| Goals (Newcastle United / Aston Villa) | 7 / 7 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.8 |
| Both teams scored | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11 | 16 |
| Points | 8 | 5 |
| Played | 6 | 6 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Goals for-against | 10-13 | 6-11 |
| Goal difference | -3 | -5 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Newcastle United to win: recent results against the odds
Recent results and the odds agree on a Newcastle United win: about 42% and 43%. So our case rests on the bet builder, not on the match odds alone. The recent-results figure comes from only six matches each, so it does not tell us much on its own.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Newcastle United (last 6) | Aston Villa (last 6) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Home / away split | 1-2-0 | 1-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.67 | 1 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| BTTS % | 83% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 11 | 8 | 10-13 |
| Aston Villa | 16 | 5 | 6-11 |
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