Today's Best Free Football Betting Tips

Arsenal’s 7 wins from their last 10 set the tone. Coventry City arrive unbeaten in their last 3, so this is no stroll, but 1/5 is a banker’s price and the banker’s job is what it does here.

AFC Bournemouth’s 5-4-1 from their last 10 deserves respect, and Manchester City’s 5 wins over the same stretch are solid rather than dominant. 4/9 still reads right at home: this leg anchors the acca, it does not drive the payout.

Manchester United hold the form edge, 5 wins and 2 defeats from their last 10, though Hull City have lost only once in their last 5. 1/2 offers little as a single and plenty inside a 4-fold, which is exactly its role here.

Little between these two on form: Chelsea’s 4 wins from their last 10 shade Fulham’s 3. That is why the away win pays 11/10, and why this leg carries the acca’s value rather than its certainty.

Chelsea edge the form book, 4 wins from their last 10 to Fulham’s 3, yet 11/10 prices them as marginal outsiders. The day’s tip should find value rather than restate a favourite, and this is where it lives.

Both sides have cleared 2.5 goals in 70 per cent of their last 10, and AFC Bournemouth are averaging 3 goals a game across that run. A banker’s price at 4/9, but for once the pattern matches it.

Newcastle United have seen over 2.5 goals in 60 per cent of their last 10, Liverpool in 50 per cent of theirs. Decent rather than emphatic, and 1/2 prices that honestly for a game with this much attacking talent on the pitch.

This one splits the data: 80 per cent of Chelsea’s last 10 cleared 2.5 goals, only 40 per cent of Fulham’s did. Chelsea’s 2.1 goals a game does the heavy lifting, and 8/13 pays fairly for a leg with real work to do.

Fulham’s 3 wins from 10 hardly leap off the page, but Chelsea’s 4-2-4 is no fortress either. In a match this tight the home side at 11/4 is the value swing of the card, and a price like that only needs to land occasionally.

Identical 3-3-4 records over the last 10, so on recent form this is a genuine toss-up with home advantage attached. 5/2 about the host in that sort of contest is the attraction: the price, not the probability, earns the slot.

Tottenham Hotspur have lost once in their last 10 (5-4-1) while Brentford’s 4-4-2 is heavy on draws. The strongest form case on this card, yet away at Brentford it still pays 7/4.