Premier League · Elland Road, Leeds · Matchday 7 · Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Leeds United v Manchester United, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
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Odds correct at 11:33 on 16 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet needs Leeds United to win without conceding and by no more than four goals, so anything from 1-0 to 4-0, and Under 4.5 Goals at 2/11 covers every one of those scores. It loses only on five or more, which happened once in Leeds United’s last six Premier League matches and once in Manchester United’s. That Manchester United game went to six goals or more, a sign their matches can come apart, though one in six on each side is all the evidence against this leg.
Leeds United to win at 7/5 is our pick on this fixture, and the league record is on their side: two wins, three draws and one defeat in their last six Premier League matches, against one win, three draws and two defeats for Manchester United. Draws are the danger, with both sides sharing the points three times in six, and Leeds were beaten 2-1 by Arsenal on 10 October. At home they are unbeaten in three, winning one and drawing two. Manchester United have not won any of their three league games away from home, drawing two and losing one.
Both teams scored in four of Leeds United’s last six Premier League matches and in four of Manchester United’s, the strongest figure against No on both teams to score at 6/4. Manchester United have not kept a clean sheet in that run, so this leg comes down to Leeds keeping them out, which they have done twice in six while conceding 0.83 goals a game. The visitors have drawn a blank in two of their last six, though their 1.5 goals a game is the reason to treat a Leeds shutout with care.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 6
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last six Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 6 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 10 October 2026)
The record
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Leeds United home / Manchester United away | 1-2-0 | 0-2-1 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.33 | 1.5 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 1.67 (3) | 1 (3) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 0.83 | 1.5 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 0.67 (3) | 1.67 (3) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
Venue row is Leeds United at home and Manchester United away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 67% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 33% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 33% (3) | 33% (3) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 17% | 33% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 67% (3) | 67% (3) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
Last 5 meetings (Leeds United’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 5 |
| Leeds United wins / draws / Manchester United wins | 1-2-2 |
| Goals (Leeds United / Manchester United) | 7 / 10 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 3.4 |
| Both teams scored | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7 | 13 |
| Points | 9 | 6 |
| Played | 6 | 6 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-3-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Goals for-against | 8-5 | 9-9 |
| Goal difference | +3 | +0 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Leeds United to win: recent results against the odds
The risk. On recent results a Leeds United win comes out at about 33%, and the odds say 40%. That gap is the risk in our bet builder. The recent-results figure comes from only six matches each, so it does not tell us much on its own.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Leeds United (last 6) | Manchester United (last 6) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 2-3-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Home / away split | 1-2-0 | 0-2-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.33 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.5 |
| BTTS % | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Leeds United
Manchester United
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 7 | 9 | 8-5 |
| Manchester United | 13 | 6 | 9-9 |
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