Premier League · Anfield, Liverpool · Matchday 6 · Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Liverpool v Manchester City, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
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Odds correct at 08:46 on 8 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet wins if Manchester City win without conceding, by anything from 1-0 to 4-0, and under 4.5 goals at 2/9 is the leg that sets the upper limit. City average 2.6 goals a game and two of their last five matches had five goals or more, so a high-scoring game cannot be ruled out. Against that, Liverpool have conceded 0.8 a game and kept three clean sheets in those five, and it takes five goals to beat this leg.
Liverpool have not lost in their last five matches, two wins and three draws, and that is the record this leg has to get past. Manchester City to win at 8/5 is our pick on this fixture because they have won five from five, scoring 2.6 goals a game to Liverpool’s 1.4. They have scored in every one of those matches, and three draws in five show how often Liverpool have fallen short of a win. City beat Sunderland 5-3 back on 20 September, an eight-goal game that would have won this leg and sunk the other two.
Only two of Liverpool’s last five matches saw both sides score, and City’s two clean sheets in their winning run were both wins to nil, the result this bet needs. That is the case for both teams to score: No at 13/8, a leg that needs Liverpool to draw a blank when they have done so just once in five. City’s own matches argue the other way: both teams scored in three of their last five, and they have conceded a goal a game.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 5
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last five Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 5 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 20 September 2026)
The record
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 2-3-0 | 5-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 3.00 |
Goals per game
Overall
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 0.8 | 1 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Goals-line hit rate
Overall
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 40% | 40% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Last 5 meetings (Liverpool’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Liverpool wins / draws / Manchester City wins | 2-0-3 |
| Goals (Liverpool / Manchester City) | 5 / 9 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.8 |
| Both teams scored | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6 | 1 |
| Points | 9 | 15 |
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-3-0 | 5-0-0 |
| Goals for-against | 7-4 | 13-5 |
| Goal difference | +3 | +8 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Manchester City to win: recent results against the odds
The odds put Manchester City’s chance of winning at 37%, and on recent results it comes out at about 50%. Recent results are one guide among several, and Manchester City are our pick, as in the bet builder. The recent-results figure comes from only five matches each, so it does not tell us much on its own.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Liverpool (last 5) | Manchester City (last 5) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 2-3-0 | 5-0-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.8 | 1 |
| BTTS % | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
Liverpool
Manchester City
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 6 | 9 | 7-4 |
| Manchester City | 1 | 15 | 13-5 |
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