Premier League · Stamford Bridge, London · Matchday 6 · Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
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Odds correct at 08:46 on 8 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet needs Chelsea to win a match in which AFC Bournemouth also score and the goals reach four, and both teams scoring is the first part of that at 1/2. Both teams have scored in four of Chelsea’s last five Premier League matches and in four of Bournemouth’s last five, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in that run. The case against is that each has also failed to score once in those five, and Bournemouth’s 1.2 goals a game is the lower of the two scoring rates.
Chelsea have won only two of their last five Premier League matches, conceding 2.4 goals a game, and they lost 3-0 to Brentford back on 18 September. AFC Bournemouth have drawn three of their last five, and a draw here sinks the whole bet. Chelsea to win is still our pick on this fixture at 8/11. Bournemouth have not won any of those five and have conceded 1.6 goals a game, while Chelsea have scored two a game.
Over 3.5 goals is 6/5, and Chelsea’s matches make the argument: every one of their last five in the Premier League has had at least three goals and three of the five had four or more, with Chelsea scoring two a game and conceding 2.4. AFC Bournemouth’s matches have got there less often, two in their last five, but if Chelsea win and both teams score, as the rest of this bet needs, that is at least three goals already and one more does it.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 5
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last five Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 5 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 20 September 2026)
The record
| Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 2-1-2 | 0-3-2 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.60 |
Goals per game
Overall
| Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2 | 1.2 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Goals-line hit rate
Overall
| Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 60% | 40% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Last 5 meetings (Chelsea’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Chelsea wins / draws / AFC Bournemouth wins | 2-3-0 |
| Goals (Chelsea / AFC Bournemouth) | 7 / 5 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.4 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10 | 17 |
| Points | 7 | 3 |
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-1-2 | 0-3-2 |
| Goals for-against | 10-12 | 6-8 |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Chelsea to win: recent results against the odds
The risk. On recent results a Chelsea win comes out at about 40%, and the odds say 56%. That gap is the risk in our bet builder. The recent-results figure comes from only five matches each, so it does not tell us much on its own.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Chelsea (last 5) | AFC Bournemouth (last 5) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 2-1-2 | 0-3-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| BTTS % | 80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 10 | 7 | 10-12 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 17 | 3 | 6-8 |
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