Premier League · Villa Park, Birmingham · Matchday 6 · Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Aston Villa v Brentford, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
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Odds correct at 08:46 on 8 Oct. Returns include the stake.
Everything here comes down to Brentford winning without conceding, by one, two or three goals, and Under 3.5 Goals at 4/9 is the leg that keeps the scoreline inside that. The risk comes from Villa’s side of it, because two of their last five Premier League matches went over 3.5 goals, against one of Brentford’s last five. Five matches is a short run to judge on, but Villa have scored under a goal a game across it, so most of the goals would have to come from Brentford.
Both teams have scored in three of Brentford’s last five Premier League matches, and that is the number that argues against Both teams to score: No at 11/8. The bet needs Villa kept out altogether, and they have failed to score in three of their last five, while Brentford have kept two clean sheets in theirs.
Brentford to win at 13/8 is our pick on this fixture, and the other two legs only matter if it comes in. They are unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches (two wins, three draws), have scored in every one at two goals a game, and beat Chelsea 3-0 back on 18 September, the kind of result this bet needs. Villa have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five, conceding nearly two a game. The doubt is the draw, because Brentford have drawn more of those five than they have won, and Villa are the home side.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 5
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last five Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 5 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 19 September 2026)
The record
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 1-1-3 | 2-3-0 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.80 |
Goals per game
Overall
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 0.8 | 2 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 0 |
Goals-line hit rate
Overall
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 60% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 40% | 20% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 0 |
Last 5 meetings (Aston Villa’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Aston Villa wins / draws / Brentford wins | 2-1-2 |
| Goals (Aston Villa / Brentford) | 5 / 4 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 1.8 |
| Both teams scored | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16 | 4 |
| Points | 4 | 9 |
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 1-1-3 | 2-3-0 |
| Goals for-against | 4-9 | 10-4 |
| Goal difference | -5 | +6 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Brentford to win: recent results against the odds
The odds put Brentford’s chance of winning at 36%, and on recent results it comes out at about 50%. Recent results are one guide among several, and Brentford are our pick, as in the bet builder. The recent-results figure comes from only five matches each, so it does not tell us much on its own.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Aston Villa (last 5) | Brentford (last 5) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 2-3-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.8 | 2 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| BTTS % | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Aston Villa
Brentford
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 16 | 4 | 4-9 |
| Brentford | 4 | 9 | 10-4 |
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