UEFA Nations League · Wembley Stadium, London · Matchday 4 · Tuesday 6 October 2026, 19:45 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for England v Czech Republic, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
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Odds correct at 09:26 on 6 Oct. Returns include the stake.
For this bet to win, England have to win a game in which the Czech Republic also score and the total reaches five goals, and the result is where it starts: England at 1/7 is our pick on this fixture. They have won six of their last ten competitive matches, a 7-0 win over Croatia on 3 October among them, and average 2.78 goals a game across the nine settled in normal time. The draw is the danger, because England’s other results were two defeats and two draws (one decided beyond 90 minutes), and the Czech Republic were level after 90 minutes in three of their own last ten. Those ten brought the visitors a single win, though, and they concede 1.88 a game across the eight settled in normal time.
England’s defence is the threat to both teams to score at 5/4, with four clean sheets in their nine matches decided inside 90 minutes, and the Czech Republic failed to score in two of their eight. Even so, both teams scored in five of those nine England games and in five of the Czech eight, and all this leg asks of the visitors is one goal in an England win, from a side averaging 1.38 a game against one conceding 1.33.
Over 4.5 goals at 7/4 is the leg that asks the most, and it leans on England’s scoring: 2.78 a game across their nine normal-time matches, against a Czech side conceding 1.88 across their eight. All eight of those Czech matches had at least two goals and six went over 2.5, as did six of England’s nine. The step up to five is where it can fall down, since only four of England’s nine and one of the Czech eight reached five goals, and the result this bet needs has come up in two of England’s nine and in none of the Czech Republic’s.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last ten matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 10 competitive internationals, to 3 October 2026)
The record
| England | Czech Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.60 |
Goals per game
Overall
| England | Czech Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2.78 | 1.38 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.33 | 1.88 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
Goals-line hit rate
Overall
| England | Czech Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 89% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 67% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 44% | 25% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides went over 2.5 goals in more than 60% of these matches.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| England | Czech Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 56% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
Last 5 meetings (England’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| England wins / draws / Czech Republic wins | 3-1-1 |
| Goals (England / Czech Republic) | 11 / 4 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 3.0 |
| Both teams scored | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
the group table so far
| England | Czech Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2 | 4 |
| Points | 6 | 0 |
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-0-1 | 0-0-3 |
| Goals for-against | 11-3 | 2-7 |
| Goal difference | +8 | -5 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
England to win: recent results against the odds
The risk. On recent results an England win comes out at about 60%, and the odds say 86%. That gap is the risk in our bet builder.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| England (last 10; goals from 9) | Czech Republic (last 10; goals from 8) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.78 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.88 |
| BTTS % | 56% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 67% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
England
Czech Republic
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 2 | 6 | 11-3 |
| Czech Republic | 4 | 0 | 2-7 |
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