Champions League · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October 2026, 20:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Atletico Madrid v Manchester United, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
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Odds correct at 13:46 on 13 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This 2/11 leg caps the bet at four goals, so a 4-1 or a 5-0 loses even though Atletico Madrid have won. None of Atletico Madrid’s last eight La Liga matches had five goals or more, though three of Manchester United’s last ten in the Premier League did, and those are the matches this leg has to avoid. With the other two legs it leaves four winning scores, a 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0 home win.
A 1-0 or a 2-0 to Atletico Madrid loses this bet, and this is the leg that makes it so: at 2/3 it needs three goals or more in the match. Seven of Atletico Madrid’s last eight La Liga matches had at least three goals in total, which is the argument for it, but if Manchester United fail to score, as happened in three of their last ten Premier League matches, the home side have to get three themselves, more than their La Liga average of 2.25 a game. The case against sits with Manchester United: only five of their last ten Premier League matches had three goals or more between the two teams.
All four of the scores this bet needs are Atletico Madrid wins, which makes the 19/20 home win the leg everything else stands on. They have won six, drawn one and lost one of their last eight La Liga matches; Manchester United have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten in the Premier League, and a draw loses this bet as surely as an away win. Those records come from different leagues, so they are a guide and no more. The Champions League so far cuts the other way, Atletico Madrid losing 2-1 at Liverpool on 9 September while Manchester United beat Sabah 4-0 at home on 10 September, but that is one match each. We side with eight league matches over one, and with a team that has lost once in those eight.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over up to the last ten league matches for each side. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (up to their last 10 league matches: Atletico Madrid in La Liga, Manchester United in the Premier League, to 10 October 2026)
The record
| Atletico Madrid | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 6-1-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Atletico Madrid home / Manchester United away | 3-1-0 | 1-3-1 |
| Points per game | 2.38 | 1.60 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Atletico Madrid | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2.25 | 1.8 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 2.5 (4) | 1.2 (5) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1 | 1.3 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 0.75 (4) | 1 (5) |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 |
Venue row is Atletico Madrid at home and Manchester United away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Atletico Madrid | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 88% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 75% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 38% | 40% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Both teams to score
| Atletico Madrid | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 50% | 60% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 50% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 |
Last 2 meetings (Atletico Madrid’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 2 |
| Atletico Madrid wins / draws / Manchester United wins | 1-1-0 |
| Goals (Atletico Madrid / Manchester United) | 2 / 1 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 1.5 |
| Both teams scored | 1 of 2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0 of 2 |
Final scores, extra time included.
Champions League table so far, 1 played
| Atletico Madrid | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 25 | 4 |
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 0-0-1 | 1-0-0 |
| Goals for-against | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
The odds put an Atletico Madrid win at about 50%. Recent results are not set against the odds on this page: Atletico Madrid’s are from La Liga and Manchester United’s from the Premier League, so the two records were not earned against the same opposition.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Atletico Madrid (last 8) | Manchester United (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 6-1-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Home / away split | 3-1-0 | 1-3-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.25 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1 | 1.3 |
| BTTS % | 50% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 88% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
Atletico Madrid
Manchester United
Atletico Madrid
Manchester United
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 25 | 0 | 1-2 |
| Manchester United | 4 | 3 | 4-0 |
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