Premier League · Villa Park, Birmingham · Matchday 8 · Saturday 24 October 2026, 12:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Aston Villa v Manchester City, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Advertising: we earn a commission if you open an account through these buttons. It does not change the picks.
Odds correct at 10:14 on 23 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet wins if there are three goals or more, Manchester City win and the match stays on nine corners or fewer, with Over 2.5 Goals at 8/15 the first part of it. City have scored in each of their last seven Premier League matches, averaging 2.71 goals a game, and five of those seven had three goals or more. Aston Villa are the doubt: three of their last seven finished with two goals or fewer, and they failed to score in three.
Manchester City have won each of their last seven Premier League matches, including all three away from home, and their 3-2 win over Ipswich Town on 17 October is the kind of result this bet needs: a City win with three goals or more. Aston Villa have two wins, two draws and three defeats in the same run, and none of their three home matches brought a win. The case against is that Villa have avoided defeat in four of those seven, so City still have to earn it at 2/3.
The risk on corners comes from Manchester City’s matches, which averaged 9.7 between the two teams and went over 9.5 in four of their last seven in the Premier League. Aston Villa’s matches have run far quieter at 7.4 a game, with six of their seven finishing on nine corners or fewer, and that Villa record is the case for Under 9.5 corners at evens alongside the City win and the goals.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 7
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last seven Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 7 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 17 October 2026)
The record
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 2-2-3 | 7-0-0 |
| Aston Villa home / Manchester City away | 0-1-2 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 3.00 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1 | 2.71 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 1 (3) | 2.67 (3) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.57 | 1 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 1.67 (3) | 0.33 (3) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 0 |
Venue row is Aston Villa at home and Manchester City away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 57% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 57% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 67% (3) | 67% (3) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 43% | 43% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 43% | 57% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 67% (3) | 33% (3) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 0 |
Last 5 meetings (Aston Villa’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 5 |
| Aston Villa wins / draws / Manchester City wins | 3-0-2 |
| Goals (Aston Villa / Manchester City) | 7 / 8 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 3.0 |
| Both teams scored | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12 | 1 |
| Points | 8 | 21 |
| Played | 7 | 7 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-2-3 | 7-0-0 |
| Goals for-against | 7-11 | 19-7 |
| Goal difference | -4 | +12 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Manchester City to win: recent results against the odds
The odds put Manchester City’s chance of winning at 58%, and on recent results it comes out at about 71%. Recent results are one guide among several, and Manchester City are our pick, as in the bet builder. The recent-results figure comes from only seven matches each, so it does not tell us much on its own.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Aston Villa (last 7) | Manchester City (last 7) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 2-2-3 | 7-0-0 |
| Home / away split | 0-1-2 | 3-0-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 1 | 2.71 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.57 | 1 |
| BTTS % | 43% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 57% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
Aston Villa
Manchester City
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 12 | 8 | 7-11 |
| Manchester City | 1 | 21 | 19-7 |
Today’s football tips · All football predictions · Build your own bet
18+ only. Odds correct at the time shown on each card. Odds and bookmaker offers are subject to each bookmaker’s terms; new customers, T&Cs apply. Always gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org