UEFA Europa League · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October 2026, 20:00
Adrian Dane's bet builder for AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Odds correct at 11:12 on 22 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet wins if AC Milan win, the match has two goals or more and the corners stop at nine. Over 1.5 Goals at 2/9 rests mainly on Milan, whose last seven Serie A matches all had two goals or more, with Milan scoring in each and averaging two a game. Bournemouth bring the doubt, since two of their last ten in the Premier League finished on one goal or none. If Milan do take the points, only a lone goal with nothing at the other end beats this leg.
The risk on the corners comes from Bournemouth’s side: two of their last seven Premier League matches went past nine, and those seven averaged just under nine corners between the two teams. Milan’s last seven in Serie A all stayed at nine or fewer, averaging around six corners between the two sides. Under 9.5 corners at 4/5 still has five of those seven Bournemouth matches on its side.
AC Milan to win at 57/20 is our pick on this fixture, built on an unbeaten Serie A run of four wins and three draws in their last seven, the latest a 3-2 win over Atalanta on 18 October. Bournemouth have won only two of their last ten in the Premier League and conceded one and a half goals a game. The draw is the threat, with five of those Bournemouth matches finishing level and Milan drawing three of their four away from home in Serie A. Europe has gone Bournemouth’s way so far, a 2-1 win at Real Sociedad and 3-0 against Sturm Graz, while Milan lost 2-0 at home to Benfica before winning 4-0 at Salzburg. Bournemouth have lost once in five at home, so there is real risk here; we side with Milan for the two goals a game they have scored across those seven Serie A matches.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over up to the last ten league matches for each side. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (up to their last 10 league matches: AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League, AC Milan in Serie A, to 18 October 2026)
The record
| AFC Bournemouth | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 2-5-3 | 4-3-0 |
| AFC Bournemouth home / AC Milan away | 1-3-1 | 1-3-0 |
| Points per game | 1.10 | 2.14 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| AFC Bournemouth | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.2 | 2 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 1.2 (5) | 1.5 (4) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.5 | 1 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 1 (5) | 1.25 (4) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Venue row is AFC Bournemouth at home and AC Milan away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| AFC Bournemouth | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 80% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 40% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 20% (5) | 50% (4) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 30% | 29% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Both teams to score
| AFC Bournemouth | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 70% | 71% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 60% (5) | 100% (4) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Europa League table so far, 2 played
| AFC Bournemouth | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5 | 16 |
| Points | 6 | 3 |
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-0-0 | 1-0-1 |
| Goals for-against | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
Points and goals
The odds put an AC Milan win at about 25%. Recent results are not set against the odds on this page: AFC Bournemouth’s are from the Premier League and AC Milan’s from Serie A, so the two records were not earned against the same opposition.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| AFC Bournemouth (last 10) | AC Milan (last 7) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 2-5-3 | 4-3-0 |
| Home / away split | 1-3-1 | 1-3-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.2 | 2 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 1 |
| BTTS % | 70% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
AFC Bournemouth
AC Milan
AFC Bournemouth
AC Milan
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 6 | 5-1 |
| AC Milan | 16 | 3 | 4-2 |
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