Under 3.5 Goals 4/11
The scoreline side of this bet rides on Arsenal winning without conceding, by 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0, so three goals is the most this bet can carry. Under 3.5 at 4/11 loses only on four or more, and none of Arsenal’s last seven Premier League matches reached four, their more open home games included. Everton’s matches are the worry, with two of their last seven going to four goals or more.
The numbers behind this pick
Arsenal over 3.5 % (last 7)0%
Arsenal scored / conceded per game (last 7)1.57 / 0.71
Everton over 3.5 % (last 7)29%
Everton scored / conceded per game (last 7)1.14 / 1
Form covers each side’s last seven Premier League matches. Source: official match results, compiled by BestBettingSites.co.uk.
Arsenal to win 4/9
Arsenal to win at 4/9 is our pick on this fixture, built on six wins from their last seven Premier League matches and three from three at home. The result this bet needs is the tight kind, like the 1-0 over Nottingham Forest on 18 October, not the more open home wins Arsenal have been producing. Everton have lost only one of their last seven, with two wins and four draws, and all three of their away matches finished level. Arsenal have to beat a side that is hard to beat, and do it without conceding.
The numbers behind this pick
Arsenal last 7 (W-D-L)6-0-1
Arsenal at home3-0-0
Everton last 7 (W-D-L)2-4-1
Everton away0-3-0
Arsenal wins in last 5 meetings (final scores)3
Same matches as above.
Both teams to score: No 3/4
Both teams scored in two of Arsenal’s three home matches in this run, and that is the danger for BTTS No at 3/4. Across all seven, Arsenal kept four clean sheets and both sides found the net in only two. Everton drew a blank in two of their last seven and saw both teams score in three, so this leg leans on Arsenal keeping them out rather than on Everton’s attack misfiring.
The numbers behind this pick
Arsenal BTTS % (last 7)29%
Everton BTTS % (last 7)43%
Arsenal clean sheets (last 7)4
Everton failed to score (last 7)2
Everton clean sheets (last 7)3
Arsenal failed to score (last 7)1
Same matches as above.
Over 3.5 cards 1/1
Over 3.5 cards at evens adds a line that does not depend on the score: five of Arsenal’s last seven matches went over it, averaging 4.6 cards across both teams, and four of Everton’s seven did, at four a match. The case against sits with Everton: three of their seven stayed under the line, and two of Arsenal’s did as well.
The numbers behind this pick
Arsenal matches over 3.5 cards (last 7)5 of 7
Arsenal matches, cards per match (last 7)4.6
Everton matches over 3.5 cards (last 7)4 of 7
Everton matches, cards per match (last 7)4
Same matches as above. Cards are both teams’ players’ yellow and red cards from each match’s official statistics; a second yellow counts as one yellow and one red.