Premier League · Anfield, Liverpool · Matchday 9 · Sunday 1 November 2026, 16:30
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Liverpool v Arsenal, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Odds correct at 09:15 on 30 Oct. Returns include the stake.
Everything here rests on Liverpool winning without conceding and by three goals at most, so 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0, and Under 3.5 Goals at 19/50 is the leg that keeps the scoring below four. None of Arsenal’s last eight Premier League matches produced four goals or more. Two of Liverpool’s last eight reached four goals, but both were 2-2 draws, and within this bet the leg only loses on a Liverpool win by four or more without reply. Liverpool did not score more than twice in any of those eight.
Arsenal failed to score in only one of their last eight Premier League matches, and that is the hard part of this leg, because alongside a Liverpool win it needs Arsenal to finish without a goal. No on both teams scoring is 23/20, and the case for it sits with Liverpool’s defence. They kept clean sheets in half of their last eight and conceded an average of one goal a game. Arsenal averaged 1.63 goals a game over their own last eight, which is the number Liverpool’s defence has to beat.
Liverpool to win at 2/1 is our pick on this fixture, and their 2-0 win over Brighton & Hove Albion on 25 October is exactly the kind of result this bet needs. The danger is Arsenal, with seven wins and one defeat from their last eight in the Premier League and three wins from their last four away from home, while Liverpool have won just one of their last four at home. Liverpool have still lost only once in eight, winning four, and a repeat of that Brighton scoreline would win every leg of this bet.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 8
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last eight Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 8 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 25 October 2026)
The record
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 4-3-1 | 7-0-1 |
| Liverpool home / Arsenal away | 1-2-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 2.62 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 1 (4) | 1 (4) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1 | 0.63 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 1.25 (4) | 0.75 (4) |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 |
Venue row is Liverpool at home and Arsenal away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 50% (4) | 25% (4) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 25% | 0% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 38% | 25% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 25% (4) | 0% (4) |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 |
Last 5 meetings (Liverpool’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 5 |
| Liverpool wins / draws / Arsenal wins | 1-3-1 |
| Goals (Liverpool / Arsenal) | 6 / 7 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.6 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4 | 2 |
| Points | 15 | 21 |
| Played | 8 | 8 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 4-3-1 | 7-0-1 |
| Goals for-against | 11-8 | 13-5 |
| Goal difference | +3 | +8 |
Points and goals
Liverpool to win: recent results against the odds
Recent results and the odds agree on a Liverpool win: about 31% and 32%. So our case rests on the bet builder, not on the match odds alone.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Liverpool (last 8) | Arsenal (last 8) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 4-3-1 | 7-0-1 |
| Home / away split | 1-2-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1 | 0.63 |
| BTTS % | 38% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 |
Liverpool
Arsenal
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 4 | 15 | 11-8 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 21 | 13-5 |
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