Premier League · Stamford Bridge, London · Matchday 9 · Saturday 31 October 2026, 12:30
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Chelsea v Manchester United, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Odds correct at 09:15 on 30 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet wins if Chelsea win a game in which both sides score and there are ten corners or fewer, so the home side have to concede and still finish ahead. Both teams to score, at 11/20, has landed in five of each side’s last eight Premier League matches, but Manchester United failed to score in three of theirs, and that is the case against it. Against that, Chelsea kept only one clean sheet in those eight and conceded 1.88 goals a game, so United should get their chances.
The risk on Under 10.5 corners, priced at 8/11, sits with Chelsea: their last eight matches averaged 11.1 corners between the two teams, and four of the eight went past ten. Manchester United’s matches have run lower, at 9.6 corners a game with five of their last eight ending on ten or fewer, and this leg needs the match to look more like United’s games than Chelsea’s.
Chelsea to win at 5/6 is our pick on this fixture, and the records favour the home side: four wins, a draw and three defeats in their last eight Premier League matches, against one win, four draws and three defeats for Manchester United. Chelsea have scored 2.13 goals a game to United’s 1.25, and United drew three and lost one of their four away matches in that run. Chelsea concede 1.88 a game, which suits the both-teams-to-score leg but means they have to outscore United rather than shut them out, and they lost 2-0 to Tottenham Hotspur on 24 October. United’s four draws in eight are the clearest danger, because a draw beats this bet whatever happens in the other two legs.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 8
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last eight Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 8 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 25 October 2026)
The record
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 4-1-3 | 1-4-3 |
| Chelsea home / Manchester United away | 2-1-1 | 0-3-1 |
| Points per game | 1.62 | 0.88 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2.13 | 1.25 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 2.75 (4) | 1 (4) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 2 (4) | 1.5 (4) |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 |
Venue row is Chelsea at home and Manchester United away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 75% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 75% (4) | 25% (4) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 50% | 25% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 63% | 63% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 75% (4) | 75% (4) |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 |
Last 5 meetings (Chelsea’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 5 |
| Chelsea wins / draws / Manchester United wins | 2-1-2 |
| Goals (Chelsea / Manchester United) | 7 / 7 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.8 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5 | 16 |
| Points | 13 | 7 |
| Played | 8 | 8 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 4-1-3 | 1-4-3 |
| Goals for-against | 17-15 | 10-13 |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
Points and goals
Chelsea to win: recent results against the odds
The risk. On recent results a Chelsea win comes out at about 44%, and the odds say 52%. That gap is the risk in our bet builder.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Chelsea (last 8) | Manchester United (last 8) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 4-1-3 | 1-4-3 |
| Home / away split | 2-1-1 | 0-3-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.13 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| BTTS % | 63% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 75% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
Chelsea
Manchester United
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 5 | 13 | 17-15 |
| Manchester United | 16 | 7 | 10-13 |
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