Premier League · Villa Park, Birmingham · Matchday 9 · Saturday 31 October 2026, 20:00
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Aston Villa v Fulham, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Odds correct at 09:15 on 30 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet needs Aston Villa to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0, so every winning score has three goals or fewer and Under 3.5 at 1/2 covers all of them. Fulham’s last eight Premier League matches stayed under that line six times, Villa’s five. None of Villa’s three wins in those eight came by more than one goal, so a Villa win by four or more, the only score that beats this leg inside the bet, would be well beyond anything they have managed.
Aston Villa to win at evens rests on the better Premier League record of the two: three wins, two draws and three defeats in their last eight, against Fulham’s two wins, two draws and four defeats. They also beat Manchester City 2-1 on 24 October. Home form is the snag, with one win, one draw and two defeats from the four of those eight played at home, the same return Fulham took from their four away. Villa’s 1.13 goals a game to Fulham’s one makes this an edge rather than a gap.
Inside this bet, No on both teams to score at 13/10 means a Villa clean sheet, because Villa have to win as well. Villa kept two in their last eight Premier League matches and Fulham failed to score in two of theirs, so this is the longest price of the three legs. The support is Fulham’s attack: one goal a game over those eight, and they have not scored more than once in any of their last five.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 8
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last eight Premier League matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 8 Premier League matches, 2026/27, to 24 October 2026)
The record
| Aston Villa | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 3-2-3 | 2-2-4 |
| Aston Villa home / Fulham away | 1-1-2 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.38 | 1.00 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Aston Villa | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.13 | 1 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 1.25 (4) | 0.5 (4) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 1.5 (4) | 0.75 (4) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 |
Venue row is Aston Villa at home and Fulham away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Aston Villa | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 63% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 63% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 75% (4) | 25% (4) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 38% | 25% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Recent form at a glance (both sides combined)
Each dial combines both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Aston Villa | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 75% (4) | 25% (4) |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 |
Last 5 meetings (Aston Villa’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 5 |
| Aston Villa wins / draws / Fulham wins | 4-0-1 |
| Goals (Aston Villa / Fulham) | 9 / 4 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.6 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
2026/27 table
| Aston Villa | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9 | 15 |
| Points | 11 | 8 |
| Played | 8 | 8 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 3-2-3 | 2-2-4 |
| Goals for-against | 9-12 | 8-10 |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
Points and goals
Aston Villa to win: recent results against the odds
The risk. On recent results an Aston Villa win comes out at about 44%, and the odds say 49%. That gap is the risk in our bet builder.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Aston Villa (last 8) | Fulham (last 8) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 3-2-3 | 2-2-4 |
| Home / away split | 1-1-2 | 1-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.13 | 1 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| BTTS % | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 63% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
Aston Villa
Fulham
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 9 | 11 | 9-12 |
| Fulham | 15 | 8 | 8-10 |
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