Europa League · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa · Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October 2026, 20:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for SL Benfica v Celtic, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Advertising: we earn a commission if you open an account through these buttons. It does not change the picks.
Odds correct at 00:40 on 15 Oct. Returns include the stake.
This bet wins if both sides score and the match finishes with three or four goals, which means 1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 2-2 or 3-1 with Benfica’s score first. Under 4.5 Goals at 3/10 is only beaten by a fifth goal, so a four-goal game still wins it, and three of those five scores add up to exactly four. Celtic’s last eight in the Scottish Premiership produced only one match with five goals or more, and they conceded half a goal a game. What could beat it is Benfica’s own scoring: they average three goals a game across their last eight in Liga Portugal, and their 6-1 home win over Hearts in the Europa League on 6 August is the sort of night that sinks this leg.
Only four of Celtic’s last eight in the Scottish Premiership had three goals or more, and Benfica’s 1-1 draw at Hearts in the Europa League on 13 August stopped at two goals. Benfica’s own league games point the other way, with seven of their last eight in Liga Portugal finishing with three goals or more and all eight producing at least two. Over 2.5 Goals at 4/9 asks for that third goal, and every score on this bet’s list has at least three.
Both teams to score at 5/6 needs a goal at each end, and neither attack goes quiet often: Benfica scored in all of their last eight in Liga Portugal, Celtic in seven of their last eight in the Scottish Premiership. The defences are what argue against it, since each side kept four clean sheets in those matches and both teams scored in only three of Celtic’s. Benfica also won 2-0 at AC Milan in the Europa League on 16 September without conceding. Celtic did score in their one Europa League match this season, a 3-1 home defeat by Ferencvárosi on 17 September, and one goal from them is the least this bet needs.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 8
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over each side’s last eight league matches. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (last 8 league matches: SL Benfica in Liga Portugal, Celtic in the Scottish Premiership, to 11 October 2026)
The record
| SL Benfica | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 6-1-1 | 7-0-1 |
| SL Benfica home / Celtic away | 3-1-0 | 4-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.38 | 2.62 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| SL Benfica | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 3 | 2 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 2.25 (4) | 2.5 (4) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 0.88 | 0.5 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 1 (4) | 0.5 (4) |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
Venue row is SL Benfica at home and Celtic away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| SL Benfica | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 88% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 75% (4) | 50% (4) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 63% | 13% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Both teams to score
| SL Benfica | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 50% | 38% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 75% (4) | 50% (4) |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
Last 5 meetings (SL Benfica’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 5 |
| SL Benfica wins / draws / Celtic wins | 3-1-1 |
| Goals (SL Benfica / Celtic) | 6 / 2 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 1.6 |
| Both teams scored | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
Final scores, extra time included.
Europa League table so far, 1 played
| SL Benfica | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7 | 28 |
| Points | 3 | 0 |
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 1-0-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Goals for-against | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
The odds put an SL Benfica win at about 77%. Recent results are not set against the odds on this page: SL Benfica’s are from Liga Portugal and Celtic’s from the Scottish Premiership, so the two records were not earned against the same opposition.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| SL Benfica (last 8) | Celtic (last 8) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 6-1-1 | 7-0-1 |
| Home / away split | 3-1-0 | 4-0-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 3 | 2 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.88 | 0.5 |
| BTTS % | 50% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 88% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
SL Benfica
Celtic
SL Benfica
Celtic
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SL Benfica | 7 | 3 | 2-0 |
| Celtic | 28 | 0 | 1-3 |
Today’s football tips · All football predictions · Build your own bet
18+ only. Odds correct at the time shown on each card. Odds and bookmaker offers are subject to each bookmaker’s terms; new customers, T&Cs apply. Always gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org