Champions League · Anfield, Liverpool · Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October 2026, 20:00
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Liverpool v Villarreal, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Odds correct at 12:43 on 20 Oct. Returns include the stake.
Both teams to score at 3/5 has both clubs’ league games behind it, with goals at both ends in six of Liverpool’s last ten in the Premier League and six of Villarreal’s last nine in La Liga. Most of Villarreal’s both-scored games ran to four goals or more, though, and this bet needs both sides scoring with three goals at most. Villarreal drew a blank in three of the nine and Liverpool kept three clean sheets in their last ten, so a goal can still go missing at either end.
Under 3.5 at 7/10 is the leg Villarreal make harder, with five of their last nine La Liga matches reaching four goals or more. Liverpool’s games point the other way: three of their last ten in the Premier League went past three goals, and they have scored 1.3 a game. This is not a call for a quiet night. Goals at both ends with three at most, so 2-1 either way or 1-1, is the finish this bet needs, and a 2-1 also lands our Over 2.5 pick on this fixture.
The final score settles the other two legs, so Over 9.5 corners at 5/6 has to come in on its own. Villarreal’s La Liga matches averaged 11.6 corners and went over this line in six of nine, but the case against is on Liverpool’s side: corner figures cover only six of their Premier League matches, which averaged 9.8, a fraction over the line, and three of the six stayed under it.
Recent form comparison
Five measures of recent form for both sides. The further out a point sits, the better: more goals scored, fewer conceded. The exact numbers are in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Three points for a win and one for a draw, added up game by game over up to the last ten league matches for each side. Each line follows that side’s own matches, so the dates do not line up. Hover or tap a line to see each result.
Recent form (up to their last 10 league matches: Liverpool in the Premier League, Villarreal in La Liga, to 17 October 2026)
The record
| Liverpool | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 3-5-2 | 2-3-4 |
| Liverpool home / Villarreal away | 0-4-1 | 1-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Liverpool | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.3 | 1.44 |
| Scored / game (venue, games) | 0.8 (5) | 1.4 (5) |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.4 | 1.44 |
| Conceded / game (venue, games) | 1.4 (5) | 1.4 (5) |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 |
Venue row is Liverpool at home and Villarreal away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Liverpool | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 80% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 (venue, games) | 40% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 30% | 56% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line.
Both teams to score
| Liverpool | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 60% | 67% |
| BTTS % (venue, games) | 60% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 |
Last 4 meetings (Liverpool’s view)
Record in those meetings
| Meetings | 4 |
| Liverpool wins / draws / Villarreal wins | 3-0-1 |
| Goals (Liverpool / Villarreal) | 8 / 3 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.8 |
| Both teams scored | 1 of 4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2 of 4 |
Final scores, extra time included.
Champions League table so far, 2 played
| Liverpool | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5 | 14 |
| Points | 6 | 3 |
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-0-0 | 1-0-1 |
| Goals for-against | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| Goal difference | +4 | +1 |
Points and goals
The odds put a Liverpool win at about 64%. Recent results are not set against the odds on this page: Liverpool’s are from the Premier League and Villarreal’s from La Liga, so the two records were not earned against the same opposition.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Liverpool (last 10) | Villarreal (last 9) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 3-5-2 | 2-3-4 |
| Home / away split | 0-4-1 | 1-2-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.3 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.4 | 1.44 |
| BTTS % | 60% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
Liverpool
Villarreal
Liverpool
Villarreal
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 5 | 6 | 8-4 |
| Villarreal | 14 | 3 | 5-4 |
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