UEFA Nations League · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · Matchday 1 · Friday 25 September 2026, 19:45 kick-off (UK time)
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Italy v Belgium, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
This builder pays if Italy win, Belgium score the opening goal and there are 4 goals or more.
Italy’s last 9 produced this shape twice and Belgium’s last 9 never. Past shape, not a forecast.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Odds correct at 12:30 on 24 Sep (UK time). Returns include the stake.
The whole builder needs Italy to win a match in which Belgium score first and at least four goals go in, and this leg is its foundation. Italy are 7-1-2 over their last ten competitive matches, all World Cup qualifying, with four wins from five at home and the stronger record of the two sides, which supports backing them at 6/5 with the exact combination having come up in two of Italy’s nine counted matches and none of Belgium’s. The case against is Belgium’s 4-5-1 over the same window with a single defeat, while Italy’s confirmed absences (a suspended defender and three injured withdrawals) thin the side that drew 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina on 31 March before losing on penalties, a result that counts as a draw here.
Belgium taking the lead is the twist that lifts the price, and it rests on their scoring rate rather than any pattern of winning from in front: 2.56 goals a game, both teams scoring in six of the nine counted, and three wins and a draw from four away matches in all competitions. Against it, Italy have kept five clean sheets in the nine counted, Belgium have failed to score in two of theirs, and Italy’s 2.56 a game matches Belgium’s exactly, so there is no sharper attack to lean on. Belgium’s last outing was a 2-1 loss to Spain on 10 July, and their approach is confirmed as a high-intensity 4-3-3, the sort of start that could bring the early goal this builder needs before Italy turn it round.
Four goals or more is the leg that stretches this builder, and both sides sit at four of the nine counted matches for over 3.5, which is the strongest argument against it at 2/1. In favour, Italy have gone over 1.5 in every one of the nine counted and over 2.5 in six, scoring 2.56 a game, while Belgium have seen both teams score in six of their nine and also average 2.56. Belgium’s 0.89 goals conceded a game is the tighter defence of the two, so this needs Italy to breach it more than once on top of the Belgian goal the second leg already requires.
Team news
Likely approach
What is at stake
Each line is backed by two independent sources checked at the time shown. Anything that changes after that time is not reflected here.
Recent form comparison
Five recent-form signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring: attack and defence against three goals a game, so a side scoring more than that fills the ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. These are recent tendencies, not a rating, and the exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
A form index, not a table: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a defeat, added up oldest match first across every competition in the window. The two lines are each side’s own sequence, not matches played on the same dates. Hover or tap the lines for each result.
Recent form (last 10 competitive internationals)
The record
| Italy | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 7-1-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Italy home / Belgium away | 4-0-1 | 3-1-0 |
| Points per game | 2.20 | 1.70 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Italy | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2.56 | 2.56 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 2.6 | 3.5 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 0.8 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
Venue row is Italy at home and Belgium away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Italy | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 67% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 60% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 44% | 44% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Italy | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 20% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
Last 5 meetings (Italy’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Italy wins / draws / Belgium wins | 4-1-0 |
| Goals (Italy / Belgium) | 9 / 4 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.6 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Italy win: recent-form share against the market share
The case against. The recent form reads the Italy win at 40 per cent, under the market’s 44 per cent, and Belgium come in 4-5-1 over their last 10. That is the risk carried by the bet builder higher up the page, and part of why the price is 6/5 rather than shorter. The form share is a historical rate, not a forecast.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Italy (last 10) | Belgium (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 7-1-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Home / away split | 4-0-1 | 3-1-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.56 | 2.56 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| BTTS % | 33% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
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