UEFA Nations League · Parken, København · Matchday 2 · Sunday 27 September 2026, 17:00 kick-off (UK time)
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Denmark v Wales, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
This builder pays if Denmark win, both sides score and there are 4 goals or more.
Denmark’s last 7 produced this shape once and Wales’ last 8 twice. Past shape, not a forecast.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Odds correct at 13:18 on 24 Sep (UK time). Returns include the stake.
The whole builder needs Denmark to win a match that finishes with four goals or more and both sides on the scoresheet, and the win is the leg the hub has already put its name to at 3/5. Denmark’s World Cup qualifying record reads four wins, three draws and one defeat over eight, unbeaten at home across four (two wins, two draws), with the 2-2 against Czech Republic back on 31 March counting as a draw before they lost on penalties; they score 2.86 a game to Wales’ 2.63 and Wales arrive without their preferred centre-back pairing, both ruled out for the whole window. The case against is real: Wales are 5-2-2 over their last nine in the same competition and Denmark have three injury withdrawals of their own, so the price pays for a side that has won more often than it has lost rather than a pushover.
Both teams scoring is the second condition in the scenario and the one the numbers like least. Wales have found the net in every one of their eight counted World Cup qualifiers, with both sides scoring in five of them, and their missing centre-back pairing helps the Denmark half of the leg. Denmark are the problem: they concede one a game, kept a clean sheet in four of their seven counted matches and saw both teams score in only three, so evens pays for the very real chance that a Danish shut-out kills the builder at the first hurdle.
Four goals or more is the last piece, and it is where the record is friendliest. Denmark’s counted World Cup qualifiers cleared 3.5 goals in five of seven (71 per cent) and 2.5 in six, while Wales went over 3.5 in four of eight, scoring 2.63 a game and conceding 1.38. Only half of Wales’ matches reached four goals, they are reported to be planning a mid-block and counter, which argues against an open game, and the full scenario has landed just once in Denmark’s seven counted games and twice in Wales’ eight, so 5/2 on this leg is the price of a builder that is a considered long-odds opinion rather than a strong fancy.
Team news
Likely approach
What is at stake
Each line is backed by two independent sources checked at the time shown. Anything that changes after that time is not reflected here.
Recent form comparison
Five recent-form signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring: attack and defence against three goals a game, so a side scoring more than that fills the ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. These are recent tendencies, not a rating, and the exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 9
A form index, not a table: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a defeat, added up oldest match first across every competition in the window. The two lines are each side’s own sequence, not matches played on the same dates. Hover or tap the lines for each result.
Recent form (up to their last 9 competitive internationals)
The record
| Denmark | Wales | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 4-3-1 | 5-2-2 |
| Denmark home / Wales away | 2-2-0 | 2-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 1.89 |
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Denmark | Wales | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2.86 | 2.63 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 2.25 | 1.5 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1 | 1.38 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Venue row is Denmark at home and Wales away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Denmark | Wales | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 86% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 86% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 75% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 71% | 50% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Denmark | Wales | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 43% | 63% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Last 4 meetings (Denmark’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 4 |
| Denmark wins / draws / Wales wins | 3-0-1 |
| Goals (Denmark / Wales) | 8 / 2 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.5 |
| Both teams scored | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Denmark win: recent-form share against the market share
The case against. The recent form reads the Denmark win at 36 per cent, under the market’s 59 per cent, and Wales come in 5-2-2 over their last 9. That is the risk carried by the bet builder higher up the page, and part of why the price is 3/5 rather than shorter. The form share is a historical rate, not a forecast.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Denmark (last 8) | Wales (last 9) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 4-3-1 | 5-2-2 |
| Home / away split | 2-2-0 | 2-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.86 | 2.63 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1 | 1.38 |
| BTTS % | 43% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 86% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
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