UEFA Nations League · Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka · Matchday 3 · Saturday 3 October 2026, 17:00 kick-off (UK time)
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Croatia v England, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
This builder pays if both sides score, England win and there are four goals or more.
Croatia’s last 10 produced this shape twice and England’s last 9 three times. Past shape, not a forecast.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
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Odds correct at 09:56 on 1 Oct (UK time). Returns include the stake.
Both teams to score, at 2/3, has one clear risk in clean sheets: Croatia kept three in their last ten competitive matches, England three in the nine of their last ten settled in 90 minutes, and England did not concede in Czechia. Set against that, both teams scored in seven of Croatia’s ten games and six of England’s nine, with Croatia letting in 1.5 goals a game and England 1.56, so neither defence has made shutting sides out a habit.
England have the sharper attack, scoring 2.44 goals a game in the nine of their last ten competitive matches that finished inside 90 minutes, against Croatia’s 1.8 in ten, and England to win at 9/10 is our pick on this fixture. The records sit closer together, England’s six wins, two draws and two defeats only a shade better than Croatia’s six wins, one draw and three defeats. England arrive off a 2-0 win over Czechia on Tuesday and drew a blank only once in those nine. Croatia have conceded in seven of their last ten, the opening an England win would be built on.
Four or more goals came in four of Croatia’s last ten competitive matches and four of England’s nine settled in 90 minutes, so most of both sides’ games stayed under the line, and over 3.5 goals, at 9/5, is the leg most likely to fail. It stays in the set because an England win with both teams scoring already means three goals at the very least, so this leg asks for one more. Eight of Croatia’s ten went over 2.5 goals, they lost 4-1 in Spain, and England have averaged 2.44 a game, which is where that extra goal could come from.
Match conditions
What is at stake
Match context checked Thu 1 Oct, 10:35 (UK time); sources linked per line.
Recent form comparison
Five recent-form signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring: attack and defence against three goals a game, so a side scoring more than that fills the ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. They show recent tendencies only; the exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
A form index, not a table: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a defeat, added up oldest match first across every competition in the window. The two lines are each side’s own sequence, not matches played on the same dates. Hover or tap the lines for each result.
Recent form (last 10 competitive internationals, to 29 September 2026)
The record
| Croatia | England | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 6-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.90 | 2.00 |
Goals per game
Overall
| Croatia | England | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.8 | 2.44 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.5 | 1.56 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Goals-line hit rate
Overall
| Croatia | England | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 80% | 89% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 40% | 44% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides went over 2.5 goals in more than 60% of these matches.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. The dials show recent form only.
Both teams to score
| Croatia | England | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 70% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Last 5 meetings (Croatia’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Croatia wins / draws / England wins | 1-1-3 |
| Goals (Croatia / England) | 5 / 8 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.6 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
Final scores, extra time included.
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
England win: recent-form share against the market share
The case against. The recent form reads the England win at 45 per cent, under the market’s 50 per cent, and Croatia come in 6-1-3 over their last ten. That is the risk carried by the bet builder higher up the page. The form share is a historical rate.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Croatia (last 10) | England (last 10; goals from 9) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 6-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.8 | 2.44 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 1.56 |
| BTTS % | 70% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 80% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
Croatia
England
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