The Premier League results that Shocked the Bookies this Season

Manchester City 0 – Spurs 4 (219/1)

With an implied probability of just 0.45%, Spurs win at the Etihad was the season’s most unexpected result. The margin of defeat against a strongly favoured home team and the number of goals scored contributed to pre-match odds of 219/1.

Nottingham Forest 7 – Brighton 0 (200/1)

Forest’s biggest-ever Premier League victory comes second in our list, with an implied probability of 0.5%. 7-0 was Brighton’s heaviest league defeat in 67 years and had pre-match odds of 200/1. Even more remarkably, the result came just a week after Forest’s 5-0 defeat to Bournemouth (another entry in our list).

Wolves 2 – Chelsea 6 (178/1)

While Chelsea may have been expected to win, the margin of victory and 8 goals scored sees this result come third. Noni Madueke’s second-half hat-trick was the highlight of a thrilling chaotic game which took the bookies by surprise.

Brentford 5 – Wolves 3 (176/1)

Another eight-goal thriller, as Brentford defeated Wolves 5-3 to catch bookies off guard. Wolves and Brentford appear 5 and 4 times in the top 20 shocks respectively, so perhaps it’s no surprise that takes 4th spot in the list.

Fulham 1 – Wolves 4 (139/1)

Wolves’ surprising comeback win over Fulham is their third entry in our list, which exemplifies a chaotic season for the Midlands’ club. Two goals from Cunha in a 4-1 win, despite a pre-match probability of just 0.71%

Spurs 3 – Liverpool 6 (126/1)

Liverpool went into this game as favourites against an injury-riddled Spurs but few expected such a goal fest with a 6-3 victory, with odds of 126/1 reflecting that. This is Spurs’ second appearance in the top 10, albeit on the wrong side of the scoreline this time.

Southampton 0 – Brentford 5 (105/1)

Perhaps a surprising entry given Southampton’s final points total but given Brentford’s away form in the first half of the season, the bookies could be forgiven for expecting a tighter contest. Odds of 105/1 implied a probability of only 0.94% for a 5-0 home defeat for the Saints.

Bournemouth 5 – Nottingham Forest 0 (97/1)

Forest came into this game sitting in third place as the surprise package of the season, so it’s understandable that the bookmakers didn’t foresee such an emphatic Bournemouth victory. The disparity in league position at the time lead to pre-match odds for 97/1 for this score. Forest would respond to the defeat a week later with a 7-0 win against Brighton.

Newcastle 1 – Bournemouth 4 (95/1)

Another big win for Bournemouth in a game they went it to as underdogs. Pre-match odds implied a 1.04% chance of a 4-1 away win, coming in at 9th in our list.

Brentford 4 – Ipswich 3 (94/1)

While Ipswich went into the game still looking for their first league win, the bookies clearly didn’t expect them to put up such a fight.

Wolves

A combination of high scoring games and a few upsets against bigger sides put Wolves top of our list of bookie busters. 3 of the top 10 most unexpected scorelines involved Wolves, with their most unexpected result being the 6-2 home loss to Chelsea.

Spurs

As any Spurs fan will tell you, following Tottenham can be a rollercoaster. Postecoglu’s side were too often on the wrong side of upsets and their gung-ho style of play led to unusually high scoring games. Spurs were, however, on the right side of the season’s most unexpected result- their 4-0 win at the Etihad.

Brentford

Brentford are another that feature 3 times in our top 10 and it’s due to their high scoring games. Brentford’s result against fellow unpredictable side Wolves came in at 4th highest odds with 176/1.

High Scoring Games

From the top 20 results with the highest odds, no game had less than 4 goals. The average number of goals scored in the top 20 was over 6. Nottingham Forest’s 1-0 win at Anfield has the highest odds of a result with less than 2 goals, at 31/1 in 44th place overall.

So, if you want to beat the bookie with a correct score bet, go for a high score.

No Draws

The highest pre-match odds for a result that was a draw was ranked 40th, Newcastle’s 3 all draw with Liverpool, at odds of 36/1.

Don’t sit on the fence if you want to outsmart your bookmaker- pick a team and back them.

Not all Giant Killings

While you’d think the scores with the highest pre-match odds would be bottom half teams beating a Premier League giant, that wasn’t the case. While the two most unpredictable teams finished in the bottom half, 7 of the top 10 most predictable finished in the top half.

So don’t assume a David vs Goliath match up will trip the bookies up.