Alan Smith’s Expert Analysis: Premier League GW16 Predictions & Analysis

Derby Significance

To the fans, it’s the biggest in the country, isn’t it? And we’ve got some great derbies. Of course, we have, the Manchester, North London, Sheffield. But I suppose it’s the fact that it hasn’t happened for a while makes it a little bit more special, particularly for Sunderland being back up in the top flight.

So I’ve been to quite a few of these and brilliant atmospheres and obviously the way Sunderland are going, it gives it that extra bit of spice.

Importance for Both Sides

I think the Newcastle fans would say it’s not a bigger one for Sunderland, and also for their players. Newcastle want to get up that table and get into a Champions League spot. They can leapfrog Sunderland, which would mean a lot, I think, to the fans.

I wouldn’t particularly say that obviously it’s more important for Newcastle, they’ve got other fish to fry in the Champions League and Carabao. But come the day, it’s huge for both sides.

Key Players

Well, Wissa came on, what, he got about 20 minutes, didn’t he, last time out? So that’s good news for him and for Newcastle. Would Eddie Howe feel Woltemade is due a rest? I don’t know. Even if he doesn’t, maybe Wissa could play off the right and duck in and support Woltemade and make runs beyond. That may be something that Eddie Howe’s thinking of. But it’s been a long time coming. They’ve spent a few quid on Wissa, so he’ll be pleased to be back.

It’s been a really great team effort this season from Sunderland. Le Fee in that kind of number 10 position, he’s played in a couple of roles. But he’s obviously a talent. I think in a big game like this, the experience of Granit Xhaka would play a part in the dressing room. He’s seen it all, not just in the dressing room, on the pitch as well. And he’s been such an important player for Sunderland. And I think they’ll need that kind of influence on the day.

Prediction

I’m going to go 2-2. Exciting derby.

Newcastle 2 – 2 Sunderland

Bouncing Back from Villa Defeat

It was a painful one to lose in the last seconds. The game could have gone either way. They can’t beat themselves up too much about it. Villa were obviously on a high and in front of their own fans. They were throwing everything at it. These things happen. It’s a competitive league, but Arsenal have just got to go again.

On paper, it’s fortunate for them that they’ve got Wolves, who are the whipping dogs of the Premier League. But they’ve just got to move on from the Villa loss.

Martin Ødegaard Role and Form

My old team-mate, Martin Keown, gave him the man of the match, didn’t he? I thought he did okay. But I think the problem with Ødegaard, maybe, and for Eze, is incorporating them both in that team. Eze came off at halftime. And you don’t want to lose his creativity. So that’s something that Arteta will be thinking about. Is it either or? Or can he play both of them?

Ødegaard’s a different sort of player from Eze. But it’ll be interesting, the team selection, actually. They’ve obviously got a game tonight as well, so that’ll come into the thinking.

Injury Concerns

Once more, a lot of clubs are getting injuries and Arsenal, I don’t know statistically whether they’re towards the top of the list. But it happened last year as well. But we’ve all said Arsenal can afford to get injuries now and not suffer so much. And I think that’s true still.

Obviously, to lose Gabriel and Saliba, to lose both, is difficult to replace. But in Hincapie and Mosquera, they’ve got two really good players. So you’ve got to get through periods like this, and I think Arsenal’s squad should be deep enough and good enough to get through a spell like this.

Missing Gabriel and Saliba

Who knows if it would have made a difference against Villa? Maybe it would have, the experience to squeeze and not concede too much space. And on the other end, of course, Gabriel particularly is a huge threat on set pieces, free kicks. So you’re bound to miss them.

Saliba’s a Rolls-Royce, reads the game so well, and they’ve got a great partnership. So Arsenal want to try and get them back pretty sharpish.

Champions League Prediction

Brugge have been beaten lately in the Champions League, Bayern, Sporting, and Atalanta. I think Arsenal will win it. Maybe 2-1 to Arsenal.

Next Three Games

I don’t think Wolves will be a hard fixture, but going up to Merseyside, Everton, could be a tricky one, as could Brighton at home. Arsenal could get nine points out of nine, though, and I think probably the worst they will do is get seven points.

Going up to Everton’s new stadium, though, if they’re at it that day, could be a real problem and a big test.

Prediction

4-0 to the Gunners against Wolves.

Arsenal 4 – 0 Wolves

Thierno Barry First Goal

Barry has come to a new league that’s clearly been tough for him; he’s raw, but he’s willing, and you can see he is popular with his teammates. They were delighted for him when he got that goal, after going close before, with the one disallowed at Newcastle.

Goals for strikers are the lifeblood, and they do wonders for your confidence. So he will want to go on now and get another couple pretty quickly rather than thinking that one was an outlier. Beto is another option for Everton, but they’ve invested quite a bit of money in Barry, so they’ll be hoping that at 23, he comes good. He’s still learning, but they will be hoping he can develop.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

I was a big fan of his at Leicester. And then at Chelsea, he kind of only got used in the European games, didn’t he? So it was quite tough for him. And now we’re seeing his quality and his goal-getting ability as well. He’s got quite a few lately. So that’s been great news for Everton. And having Grealish on that side, and Dewsbury-Hall coming through. They’ve got more flair now.

They’ve got more potential match winners, which Everton haven’t had for a good number of seasons. And fair play to David Moyes and fair play to him for getting the best out of Grealish. You can see he’s enjoying it. And Dewsbury-Hall certainly is enjoying his football at the moment.

David Moyes Impact

He’s been around the block several times, and he’s doing a great job there. Right man, right place, I think. New era in the club’s history, as you say, and Grealish spoke about him, saying he absolutely loves him. It’d be interesting if they could get hold of Grealish permanently. But he’s a legend at Everton after the two spells he’s had. So he’s a great force for them.

Good Season for Everton

Well, just looking at the table, they got 48 points last season. He helped them get into a safe position. They’re halfway there now on 24. So an increase on that 48 total is obviously an improvement. European place, probably that’s just out of touch. But to be mid-table or just above, I think, would be a very good season for them.

Prediction

2-1 to Chelsea.

Chelsea 2 – 1 Everton

Unai Emery and Villa’s Form

I think tactically obviously Emery’s very good, very diligent, detailed. But as I said earlier, that game could have gone either way. So it’s easy to jump to those kind of conclusions. But now on a roll, absolutely flying Villa. Only three points behind Arsenal now, so do you label them as title challengers? At the moment you do.

I don’t think they’ll have enough in the end. I don’t think they’ve got a squad as good and as deep as Arsenal’s, but they’re in a great position and, as I said, on a great run.

Prediction

1-1.

West Ham 1 – 1 Aston Villa

City’s Title Challenge

From City’s point of view, they’ll be feeling if we can stay in touch, we can stay close to Arsenal, we might have that advantage over them come the final run in. And that’s a challenge for Arsenal, psychologically. And City are showing signs of staying very close to Arsenal. And as you said, they’ve got that winning experience. So that’ll be their aim, just to keep going. And obviously, they’re doing pretty well at the moment.

Prediction

Palace flying. I’ll go 1-1. Tight 1-1.

Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Manchester City

Leeds’ Upturn in Form

Farke has gone to a different shape, hasn’t he? Three at the back last couple of games, and playing two up top. So, being a bit more forthright. He’s had Calvert-Lewin and Nmecha and then Okafor up top.

So, rather than having one centre forward and the two wingers, James, Gnonto or Okafor, he’s gone for those two through the middle, and it’s paid off. They’ve been scoring goals, a lot of goals lately, so fair play to Daniel Farke for making the change and making a really positive one.

Prediction

Brentford have been really poor away but very strong at home, so I’m gonna go Brentford to win it 3-2.

Brentford 3 – 2 Leeds

Scott Parker’s Position

I don’t know what the hierarchy is feeling about it all. I think Leeds’ relative success makes it a little bit more awkward for Scott Parker. They both finished on the same number of points in the Championship last season. So, I think Burnley were always going to struggle to score goals, and they were never going to be able to keep them out the way they did in the championship.

But they’re struggling to score from open play at the moment, a couple of penalties. So they’ve got to find a way, like Leeds, of being more threatening when they get hold of that ball. That’s a big challenge for Scott Parker.

Prediction

Might go for an away win, 2-1 to Fulham.

Burnley 1 – 2 Fulham

Liverpool vs Brighton

Liverpool will be hoping the European win last night will kick them on. Maybe a tight one, 1-0 to Liverpool.

Liverpool 1 – 0 Brighton

Manchester United vs Bournemouth

United were excellent against Wolves, but maybe Bournemouth will slow things down 1-1.

Manchester United 1 – 1 Bournemouth

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham

I think it’d be tough for Spurs in this one. At Forest, they need a win under Sean Dyche in front of their own fans. 2-1 to Forest.

Nottingham Forest 2 – 1 Tottenham