World Cup Wrap: Spain Champions, Mbappe's Golden Boot

ODDS-ON WITH ADRIAN & ROY: EPISODE 6
World Cup Wrap: Spain Champions, Plus the New Premier League Season’s Odds
Recorded Wed 22 July 2026 | Hosts: Roy Brindley & Adrian Dane | bestbettingsites.co.uk

Roy: Hello and welcome to the Odds-On podcast, brought to you by bookmaker comparison site bestbettingsites.co.uk, with myself, Roy the Boy, and my partner in crime, Adrian Dane. Right, let’s get the terms and conditions out of the way, shall we? This podcast is for those aged eighteen-plus because it contains lots and lots of themes of an adult nature, namely gambling. Now on a serious note, please do bet responsibly. Do not hesitate to visit our help pages if you believe you might have an issue with your gambling, and alternatively you can contact GambleAware.org. Okay, let’s get stuck in with a look back at the World Cup and a look forward to the Premier League. Adrian, it’s over to you.

AD: Right, so the World Cup’s done. Spain are world champions for the second time, sixteen years after two thousand and ten, beating Argentina one-nil after extra time at MetLife Stadium. It came down to just a substitute: Ferran Torres scoring his first goal of the whole tournament, just thirty-nine seconds into the second period of extra time, from eight yards out. It was, of course, helped along by Argentina, who played the last stretch of normal time and all of extra time with ten men. Enzo Fernandez, well known to Premier League fans, picked up a second yellow card for a reckless foul deep into stoppage time. Now, Messi barely got a kick, forty-four touches in the whole final, and he was in tears collecting his runners-up medal. Spain finished the tournament having conceded one goal in eight games, just one. So that kind of tells you the story of the final on its own.

Now the honest bit. Back in episode five I put my name on Argentina and Messi lifting it. I tipped it before a ball was kicked, and I restated it just before the final. It didn’t land. Spain’s defence smothered them, and the red card kind of finished the job off. And I got it wrong. I’ll take that one on the chin, and that’s what this segment is for.

One more thing on the World Cup, because it’s a genuinely good story: England picked up the bronze, beat France six-four in Miami in the third-place play-off. It was an incredible game of football, my highlight of the tournament, and the most goals scored in a World Cup match since nineteen eighty-two. England were four-nil up inside the first half, Declan Rice curling one in early and Ezri Konsa heading home. But of course England didn’t make it easy, and France roared back through an Mbappe double, plus Barcola and Dembele. Bukayo Saka got a hat-trick for England, which was really annoying for me, because my mate Johnnie put him as captain in his fantasy football team, which kind of erased all chances I had of catching him. That aside, a Bellingham strike, his seventh goal of the tournament, set a new England World Cup record, and made it six-four. That’s England’s best World Cup finish since they won the whole thing in nineteen sixty-six. Mbappe’s brace, incidentally, also made him the all-time World Cup top scorer, twenty-two goals and counting, overtaking Messi on the very weekend Messi’s own international career may have just ended.

So for the World Cup, that’s it, four years until anyone kicks a competitive ball again that matters this much. And if for some reason you’ve now got the international bug and you’re wondering when England next get their crack at actual silverware, assuming we politely look past the Nations League for a minute, we’re looking two years down the line to Euro twenty twenty-eight. Again, the good news for us is that it’s co-hosted on home soil across the UK and Ireland, with the final at Wembley, so the narrative writes itself. In fact, the bookies have already opened the outright markets. They’ve got England sitting as third favourites at around nine-to-two, to be honest that’s probably where we were at the beginning of the World Cup, probably fourth favourites. So we’ll just be the usual suspects: France and the newly crowned world champions Spain, both joint favourites at four-to-one. And on paper it’s the ultimate setup for this squad, Bellingham and Saka, they’ll be in their prime, and the tournament is practically in our own back garden. So here we are to suggest that the market expects England to be right in the thick of it again. But as we know all too well with host tournaments, home advantage brings serious expectations, and after falling short in New Jersey the pressure on this group to finally cross the line on home turf is going to be immense.

But anyway, that’s two years away. Football doesn’t stop, because we are just four weeks away from the Premier League kickoff, and the bookies have already priced the whole thing. That’s today’s show. Now, before we get into it, this is a betting show, it’s strictly eighteen-plus, and it’s made by bestbettingsites.co.uk. If you sign up to a bookmaker through one of our links, we may earn a commission, and that’s how this show gets paid for, and as ever I’ve no reason to sell you a loser.

So, the diary. The Championship kicks off Friday the fourteenth of August. The Community Shield, Arsenal against Man City, is Sunday the sixteenth, and it’s in Cardiff this year, not Wembley. So let’s have a quick look at how the bookmakers are pricing that game. Match-winner market, over ninety minutes: Arsenal are six-to-four, which is around two-fifty. The draw is thirteen-to-five, which is three-sixty. And Manchester City, slight underdogs, are seven-to-four, which is two-seventy-five. There’s not much in it, really. If you think it’s going to be one-nil to Arsenal, that’s seventeen-to-two. Two-one to Arsenal, that’s nine-to-one. Then Man City’s the same scorelines: one-nil to Man City is nine-to-one, and two-one is also nine-to-one.

One of the most popular markets is the half-time-full-time market. Arsenal to be leading at the break and then to win, sixteen-to-five. If it’s going to be Man City holding on through both halves, seven-to-two. If you fancy a draw at half-time, then a draw at the end and onto penalties, that’s twenty-four-to-five. Draw then Arsenal is eleven-to-two, and draw then Man City is six-to-one. So just to recap: Arsenal are currently slight favourites at six-to-four, Man City close behind at seven-to-four. To win from behind is a market that interests me, it’s a story I can see happening, one team takes the lead but the other fights back. You can get twelve-to-one for either team to do that, and I could quite easily make a case for either team to do that, to be honest.

I know I speak for a lot of fans, but as soon as the final whistle went on the World Cup, all I was thinking about was the Premier League and the restart of domestic football. So with that in mind, let’s have a look at the early odds for the Premier League. A quick warning: every price you’re about to hear is as of recording, best available across the books, check it before you follow me anywhere. And if you need help deciding between two operators, always check out bestbettingsites.co.uk, we’re unbiased, and we’ve got over a decade’s worth of experience helping people find the best betting prices.

Right, so let’s start with Arsenal, then: they’re six-to-four favourites, and I couldn’t find a book offering better, to be honest. The case is simple: they’re the champions, eighty-five points, a first league title in twenty-two years, built on the best defence in the league. While everyone else has torn something up this summer, Arsenal have had the quietest window of the top six, they’ve only made one signing, making a loan deal permanent, they’ve kept the manager, kept the spine, and stability is their whole pitch. The counter-argument, of course, for why six-to-four isn’t shorter, is that the attack still needs a source of goals, and that Champions League final defeat to PSG on penalties tells you the fine margins could still go against them.

Manchester City are second favourites, no surprise there, at five-to-two, but I’d watch that price, because the freshest sheet I’ve seen has them drifting past three-to-one. Now, City finished second last season, seventy-eight points, twelve behind Arsenal, genuine contenders, not also-rans, which is exactly why the price is moving now rather than the table. And do you know why? Pep Guardiola is gone, after ten years. Enzo Maresca is in the hot seat, his old assistant, and given that turbulent Chelsea spell, this could either be a stroke of genius or an absolute disaster for Manchester City. So this is one I’ll be watching very, very closely. It’s fair to say City have backed him: Elliot Anderson from Forest for a hundred and sixteen million, the most expensive Englishman there’s ever been, until Chelsea went and beat that a week later. But Bernardo Silva left on a free, John Stones was released, and the market has cooled slightly since the appointment became real. As we know, following a legend is the hardest job in football, and five-to-two is asking you to pay for talent while carrying succession risk.

Now, it is a strange one, Liverpool, five-to-one, third favourites despite finishing fifth on sixty points. They were twenty-five adrift of the champions, sacked Arne Slot at the end of May, and they’ve lost Mo Salah, who left by mutual agreement a year before his contract was up. His next club isn’t settled, senior defenders have followed him out the door, and Iraola comes in to run a full rebuild. And yet Liverpool are shorter than Manchester United, who finished two places above them. That’s not a form price, that’s a brand price, I’d want a bigger price to consider backing them.

Which kind of takes me on to United, at six-to-one, seven-to-one in some places. Finished third, seventy-one points, eleven clear of fourth-placed Villa, and Michael Carrick took over as interim in January. He lost just two league games the rest of the season, then got the job permanently in May. United have moved early in the transfer market as well, they’ve got Tielemans from Villa, thirty-five million release clause, which is a good bit of business, that. They’ve got Santos in from Chelsea, and squad depth is the question the price is asking, but on last season’s evidence, six-to-one against the team that finished third, above Liverpool, is the more honest quote. Again, squad depth is the one that gets me with them having Champions League next season, I think they might be stretched, so unless there’s a couple more coming in before the end of the window, I think they might struggle.

Now, from a betting perspective, Chelsea at ten-to-one are certainly a team I’m attracted to in the each-way market. At ten-to-one, that’s what the chaos costs: tenth place, fifty-two points, two managers sacked along the way, and now they’ve got Alonso, the fifth permanent boss of this ownership era. Real talent, real risk. Chelsea have broken the transfer record by signing Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa for a hundred and seventeen million. That fee surpassed the previous one set by Elliot Anderson, so a twenty-three-year-old forward signing a seven-year deal with Chelsea, making him the most expensive British player in history. Now, again, with Chelsea it’s a bit like Manchester United last season, with no Europe they’ve got a good run at this league, so could they do it here? Possibly, possibly, I’d be more considering them in the each-way market.

As regards the rest of the teams, there’s then a cliff. The next highest-priced team are Aston Villa at twenty-five-to-one, and Villa have just won the Europa League, they beat Freiburg three-nil in Istanbul, Emery’s record fifth in that competition, fourth in the league on sixty-five points. They sold Tielemans but moved fast for Gomes from Wolves. Twenty-five-to-one for a top-four side with a trophy-winning manager is the board’s biggest each-way conversation, really, after Chelsea. After that, Newcastle at forty-to-one, twelfth last season on forty-nine points, a quiet mid-table finish, and Tottenham, who the books genuinely cannot agree on, I’ve seen fifty-to-one but I’ve also seen twenty-to-one, the widest split in the market. Now, that split makes more sense once you know Spurs finished seventeenth on forty-one points, just two clear of relegated West Ham. Some books are pricing what Spurs looked like in the run-in, others are pricing the squad on paper, neither’s obviously wrong.

Now let’s have a look at the other side of the table, the relegation board. The market’s saying the new boys, history says not so fast. At the other end, and the first thing to say is that the bookies’ reflex is all three promoted clubs head the market. But if you’d have followed that logic last season, you’d have been wrong not once but twice. Sunderland, a huge surprise package, came up and finished seventh, they’re in the Europa League. Leeds, many said they’d go straight down, but they stayed up comfortably in fourteenth. Only Burnley went straight back down. So hold that thought while I read you these prices.

Hull City, who face Manchester United in the first game of their season, are one-to-four favourites to go down, odds-on, that’s an implied percentage of around eighty percent. They came up the hard way through the play-offs, and the books rate them the thinnest squad of the three. Worth knowing that they opened nearer three-to-ten and have shortened, even while the owner talks about, his words, two hundred million to spend. The market is saying: show me.

Coventry and Ipswich sit together, both odds-on, Coventry around four-to-six, Ipswich four-to-six flat, which feels a bit harsh on Coventry, champions by eleven points, ninety-five points, back in the big time after twenty-five years, Frank Lampard tied down to twenty twenty-nine, and around thirty-five million reportedly spent already. Champions historically travel better than play-off winners. Ipswich’s price carries a different worry, that they lost the architect: Kieran McKenna stepped down in June, off the back of his third promotion in four seasons there, and Gary O’Neil now walks into someone else’s blueprint. That’s the gamble inside the four-to-six.

Now, this one might come as a bit of a surprise, but Sunderland, yes, seventh-placed Sunderland, are next at around five-to-two, anywhere between two-to-one and three-to-one depending on the book. That’s second-season-syndrome pricing plus the Europa League tax: Thursday-Sunday football with, at the time of writing, one signing in, a free transfer, while a nineteen-million-pound striker went the other way. If they don’t strengthen for that schedule, the price is fair, if they do, it’s value against them shortening. Then there’s a three-way bunch at eleven-to-two to six-to-one: Crystal Palace, Leeds and Fulham, and last season’s table backs up the “nothing between them” pricing. Fulham eleventh on fifty-two points, Leeds fourteenth on forty-seven, Palace fifteenth on forty-five, three sides that finished within seven points of each other with nothing at stake either way. Palace and Fulham both start the season under new managers, Leeds sticking with Daniel Farke. Nothing between the three of them on the board, which tells you the bookies are guessing too.

So the board as it stands: Arsenal six-to-four to retain, City drifting behind them, and Liverpool five-to-one the price I’d argue with the most. Hull odds-on for the drop before a ball’s been kicked, but remember, two of last season’s three new boys stayed up. And West Ham eight-to-thirteen to come straight back. Every price I’ve mentioned today is as of recording, and with about four weeks left they will move, so check them before you follow me in.

Now the important bit to close. This is an eighteen-plus show. Only ever stake what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, free, confidential help is available at GambleAware.org, or the National Gambling Helpline. Take time to think, and I’ll see you next week. It’s over to Roy.

Roy: Thanks, Ady. Well, Formula One now, and it’s the Hungarian Grand Prix. This was the first race to go behind the Iron Curtain, way back in nineteen eighty-six. Now it’s a very dated, narrow track, and there have been a lot of shock winners and shock results down the years, notably Pastor Maldonado, who scored for Williams, and Damon Hill in nineteen ninety-seven. Who can forget? He nearly pulled off a two-hundred-to-one shocker, thirty-five seconds in front, got a hydraulic problem and was pipped to finish second. Right, well, if it’s going to be a shocker this time around, we won’t blame the weather, because the forecast is fine. In fact, it will be getting hotter and hotter during the race weekend. But to be fair, heat has not proved an Achilles heel for teams this year. It has done in the past, so I can’t see that affecting things.

Now, this race is often called the Monaco without the walls. And as the phrase suggests, overtaking here is not easy. But that could make it a lot of fun this year with the Super Mario style boost buttons that drivers have and all the electronic wizardry. Because of its similarities, many teams do cross-reference this track with data from Barcelona. And that got me to thinking, who was standout in Barcelona? Now, he was luckless, ultimately, but I think he was standout, and that was Nico Hülkenberg. He likes these types of tracks, and I think his Audi car loves these types of tracks, high downforce. Now, let’s not forget his teammate, Gabriel Bortoleto. How do you pronounce that name? Bortoleto, that’s the guy. He’s Argentinian. See, I’m reluctant. Right, Bortoleto. Well, listen, he finished in the top ten in his past two starts, that’s Spa and Silverstone. On paper, not tracks that should suit the Audis, but I think they’ll both perform really, really well this weekend. But at nine-to-four, at the price, Hülkenberg is the better bet of the weekend to finish in the points, that’s a top-ten finish.

Right, now consider this. If you are playing this weekend, there’s some notable stats to look at, and some amazing stats too. Did you know that Lewis Hamilton has not finished outside the top six once this year? Yeah, quite remarkably. Every one of his competitors have had a retirement or a lowly, lowly finish. But he’s been hyper, hyper consistent, Lewis Hamilton. And another one to look at, Isack Hadjar. He’s on a run of six top-six finishes. And he’s outpointed Max Verstappen, his teammate, the great Max Verstappen, overall in the last five races. Now, Hadjar’s thirteen-to-eight for another top six this weekend. The stats certainly suggest that is a value bet. So that’s going to be my next best. Happy punting on the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Roy: Now, I am coming to you live from Blackpool, where the Betfred World Matchplay Championship is taking place. Last night, Luke Littler smashed in a brilliant nine-darter, and he nearly came unstuck when he beat Nathan Aspinall eleven-eight. Now, don’t be fooled. Aspinall played really, really well. But a one-thirteen-point-seven average from Luke Littler, absolutely breathtaking, remarkable stuff. Littler’s in the top half of the draw and he’s now eight-to-fifteen to win the competition. I suppose it’s a case of who will emerge from the bottom half of the draw. Bookies believe it will be Wessel Nijman. He’s an eight-to-one poke now. He needs to overcome Dutch countryman Jan van Geen this evening before meeting either James Wade or Ryan Searle in the quarter-finals.

At thirty-three-to-one, half those odds for the each-way money, I’m taking Ross Smith to make the final. You get a third of those odds, actually, each-way terms, and half your money is on the place part of the bet. But I think thirty-three-to-one is a great price. He’s got to beat Cameron Menzies in the next round, and then he’ll meet Rob Cross or Gerwyn Price. Look at it right now, well, he’s top-priced even money with one of our betting partners, Ladbrokes, to win the World Championship. And with Luke Humphries going off the boil, you know, that might become my saving scheme over the next four to five months. I do think he is the next Phil Taylor. In fact, he’s Phil Taylor on steroids. And now, you know, it’s been long enough now, you can’t see him suddenly taking a form dip. So even money for the World Championship, I think that’s a great bet. But first of all, he’s got to win the Matchplay. Question is, who can beat him?

Roy: Well, it’s almost time for us to wrap up. Let’s make quick mention of the horse race, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. Group One contest worth over a million to the winner, is, of course, the classic clash of the generations. Calandagan is going to top the betting, I would imagine. What a fantastic racehorse, seven million in lifetime earnings already. Can’t believe they gelded him, but the trainer says if they hadn’t gelded him, he wouldn’t have done the great things he’s done. Let’s not forget what he has done: he won the big race, the Dubai Sheema Classic, he won the Japan Cup, and last year at Ascot he took the Champion Stakes. He’s going to start favourite, the bookmakers believe, at six-to-four. We’ve got the Irish Derby winner, Benvenuto Cellini, trained by Aidan O’Brien, of course he’s going to receive weight as a three-year-old. And the Japanese, well, they get cheeky with Masquerade Ball. Excellent CV from this horse, and very much an unknown quantity. Very much a race to savour is the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth every summer at Ascot.

Right, let’s call a halt to proceedings. Thank you so much for joining myself and Aidy at the Odds-On podcast. That final reminder: please always gamble responsibly. Go to GambleAware.org if you think you might have an issue with the gambling. Just make it fun, bet small. Gambling’s a great deal of fun, you just got to keep the stakes low and enjoy yourself with it. Now, listen, till next week, you take care, and happy punting.

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