Odds-On Ep 7 - Football, Snooker & Horse Racing

ODDS-ON WITH ADRIAN & ROY: EPISODE 7
Odds-On Ep 7 – Football, Snooker & Horse Racing
Recorded Wed 29 / Thu 30 July 2026 | Hosts: Roy Brindley & Adrian Dane | bestbettingsites.co.uk

Roy: Hello and welcome to the Odds-On podcast, with myself, Roy the Boy, and Adrian the Great Dane. Now, this week I’m going to be looking at and talking snooker, and I think I’ve found a great bet on the horses too. But first, Adrian is going to take a look at the beautiful game, at a time when the excitement is starting to build for the forthcoming football season. Now, a reminder: this presentation is for people aged eighteen and older, as it contains gambling themes, lots and lots of them. And so a reminder, you are encouraged to visit GambleAware.org, which provides free advice, self-help tools, education and a helpline if you believe your gambling activities have, or could be, becoming troublesome. Now, my advice: keep your stakes small and keep it fun. But without further ado, Adrian, what do you have for us this week?

AD: Thanks, Roy. Well, the big news for me is that the Premier League has already spent more than a billion pounds this summer, and the British transfer record has been broken twice in a matter of days. But the real story is not only who is buying, it’s who is selling, who is rebuilding, and how the money is changing the promotion race all the way down the EFL. So today: the two record deals, the clubs that have played the market best, the rebuild that worries me the most, and the three EFL prices that deserve a closer look.

Right, so before we get started, the usual disclaimers. This is an eighteen-plus betting show from bestbettingsites.co.uk. We may earn commission if you join a bookmaker through one of our links. Every price is the best sportsbook price I could verify at time of recording, and exchanges are excluded. Prices move, terms vary, and implied probability is a translation of the price, not a guarantee.

So, Manchester City paid a reported one hundred and sixteen million for Elliot Anderson. Then Chelsea, not to be outdone, paid one hundred and seventeen million for Morgan Rogers, one million pound more. So on the outside it looks like theatre, but both deals tell us something serious: proven homegrown Premier League talent has become the most expensive currency in football. So let’s have a quick look at Morgan Rogers and the numbers behind that. He’s twenty-three years old, and according to ESPN he made thirty-two starts, eight goals, five assists. So what are Chelsea buying beyond them goals? Because let’s be honest, eight goals is not really a great deal of goals. Well, it’s Premier League certainty, homegrown status, positional flexibility, and a player entering his peak development years. So on a personal view, I think that Chelsea are not just paying for last season, they’re paying for scarcity. There aren’t many twenty-three-year-old English attackers who are already physically dominant, tactically flexible and productive in the Premier League. So that gets us on to Elliot Anderson, then, and the numbers behind him. He’s also twenty-three. He made thirty-eight appearances, four goals and four assists, and his career output is six goals and ten assists across seventy-five Premier League appearances, and he made seven starts for England at the 2026 World Cup. So why City? He can receive under pressure, carry through midfield, play as a number six or an eight, and he satisfies the homegrown requirement. So Anderson is the safer tactical fit, Rogers is the more explosive match-winner. Both fees are enormous, but neither player is a random luxury purchase.

So that kind of gets us on to the actual transfer market, and it’s hard to disagree that Aston Villa are the best sellers. Nobody’s used the seller’s market better than Aston Villa: Rogers for one hundred and seventeen million, they also sold Youri Tielemans for thirty-six, and then Malen for more than twenty-one million. So that means close to one hundred and eighty million banked, with less than one hundred million reinvested. Now, I do want to move on to Tottenham, but before I do, just a quick word about Johan Manzambi, who Villa have bought. Twenty years old, he played in the Bundesliga, five goals, four assists, and he played a massive two thousand and ninety-four minutes, scored an average rating of seven-point-oh-seven, and he scored three times for Switzerland at the World Cup. So his international record is sixteen caps, six goals. But the reason I want to highlight him is that this is a player I’m going to be backing in the cards market. He got four yellow cards and two red cards in the Bundesliga, which tells me his aggression really needs managing. Now, as we know about the Premier League, often new players come in and they get the marching orders pretty quick. So if I was a betting man, which I am, I would be backing him to be sent off in at least one of his first five games for Aston Villa.

So if Villa were the best sellers, then I think you’ve got to give the best buyers award to Tottenham. I can’t believe I’m actually saying that, but Tottenham spent roughly two hundred and thirty million, and the interesting part is the mix: record-level fees for midfield quality, then experienced free transfers to stabilise the squad. So one of the biggest signings they’ve got is Tonali, and he’s twenty-six years old, arguably entering his peak years. He made thirty appearances, twenty-six starts, no goals and two assists last year, played two thousand five hundred and forty-three league minutes with an average rating of seven-point-oh-four. So his value is not really the goal output, it’s the tempo control, the long passing, the defensive positioning and the press resistance. So again, it’s a huge outlay, ninety-two and a half million rising to one hundred million, a huge premium for a controlling midfielder rather than someone who’s going to score you an awful lot of goals. They also bought Mateus Fernandes, twenty-two years old, and he scored three goals, four assists, and an impressive three thousand and twenty-four minutes. His average FotMob rating is seven-point-two-four, and again, high availability, he’s rated strongly for his starts and minutes played. He’s really a workhorse, and he’s going to be able to play through the pressure. The doubt with this one is the eighty-five million fee: you’re pricing in future improvement, and will that happen? Who knows. They’ve also got van Hecke: thirty-six appearances, three goals, three assists and nine clean sheets. The defender made one hundred and eighty-nine clearances, fifty-three tackles and forty-seven interceptions. Now, here’s another one who’s played an awful lot of minutes, three thousand two hundred and eleven, with an average rating of seven-point-one-oh. So he’s durable, he’s a front-foot defender, comfortable with high possession and progressive build-up. The doubt with him is moving from the Brighton structure to a high-pressure back line, and that can expose the decision-making. But as well as spending heavily, they’ve also got the free transfers in. We’ve got Andy Robertson, who left Liverpool after nine seasons. He made three hundred and seventy-eight appearances across all competitions, fifty-six league assists and more than twenty-two thousand league minutes. His role last season was reduced, he made just twenty-four appearances with one goal, but his leadership, his pressing habits and his title-winning experience will be invaluable. At thirty-two years old, though, he’s a bridge signing rather than a long-term answer. Then we have Marcos Senesi. He made thirty-seven appearances, five assists, and he rates about one-point-six-seven tackles, one-point-three-one interceptions and six-point-eight-one clearances per ninety minutes. He left Bournemouth at his contract expiry after one hundred and fourteen Premier League appearances. So why Spurs? Well, an experienced left-footed centre-back, no transfer fee. And the only doubt with him: free does not mean cheap once wages and signing-on fees are included. And then there’s also Martin Dubravka, a veteran Premier League goalkeeper, acquired as cover rather than as a long-term starter. He knows the league very well, low acquisition risk, an experienced dressing-room voice. The doubt with him is limited resale value, and he’s likely just short-term squad rotation.

So one thing that really does concern me this season is going to be Newcastle. They’ve raised roughly one hundred and seventy million from the Tonali, Anthony Gordon and Trippier deals. So the balance sheet looks healthier, but the team sheet frankly doesn’t. So what has left the team? Well, Tonali’s tempo, press resistance and control of them central spaces. Anthony Gordon, his direct running, his transitional speed and ability to stretch a back line. And then Trippier, who can forget his set-piece mastery, his leadership and game management. And then a further risk is that Bruno might be out the door. It’s uncertain, but it looks like he might be joining Arsenal. So who’s come in? Well, they’re really concentrating on the youth. They’ve got Bazoumana Toure, who was signed for forty-two million, and they’ve also added a few other players, but again, it’s all younger players, and they’re looking at future transfer value. So why it may fail early: promising players do not automatically replace leadership, and I think they might struggle this year. Punters do not back balance sheets, they back functioning midfields, and until Newcastle replace the control and experience they’ve sold, I’d be cautious about their price.

Right, before we move on to the EFL, let’s have a quick look at the title odds that are currently available. So you won’t be surprised that Arsenal are still out in front. Six-to-four is the price I’m seeing at Bet365, William Hill, pretty much everyone is offering the same price. Eleven-to-four on Man City, and again, the bookmakers are almost in unison at eleven-to-four, though I see Betway at three-to-one, which is pretty decent. Then we’ve got Liverpool, you’re talking fives, just ahead of Man United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Villa and Newcastle. Now, if you want a big outsider for the title, you can have Hull at three thousand to one, you can have Ipswich at two thousand, the same price as Coventry, and Sunderland at seven hundred and fifty to one. Now, relegation odds, and no big surprises here, to be honest. Hull are one-to-four to go down, one-to-five at William Hill, Unibet and Betfred. And then Ipswich at four-to-six, Coventry at eight-to-thirteen, Sunderland eleven-to-four, Fulham eleven-to-two, and the same price for Leeds.

Right, now it’s time to turn our attention to the EFL, and it’s quite interesting, really, because the Championship have changed how the promotion places work. It’s now two automatic promotion places and six teams in the play-offs for the third place under the new format. So that means you’ve got eight teams that are in the mix at the end of the season, which should hopefully see us enjoying football until the last game of the season in the EFL. In League One it’s the top two automatic and third to sixth in the play-offs, and you’ve got four relegated there. League Two is the top three automatic and fourth to seventh in the play-offs, and two relegated. So several teams can be promoted, so when I talk about the raw implied probabilities, they will not add up to one hundred per cent. So let’s start with the Championship, shall we? West Ham are the favourite, but at what price? The research price is four-to-six, which is an implied probability of about sixty per cent. Now, you’ve got to remember they finished eighteenth in the Premier League on thirty-nine points, comfortably above the other relegated clubs there. The manager, Nuno Espirito Santo, has stayed, reducing the coaching transition risk, but the major exits: Summerville for up to sixty million, and then, say, eighty-five for Mateus Fernandes. So they are cash rich. One of the major positives with them, really, though, is Bowen staying with the club. I’m not sure if it’s that he’s scared of his father-in-law, but anyway, he’s decided to give it at least another season, so that really boosts their chances. So yeah, I think West Ham’s badge is doing more work than the current squad at the price, but I expect them certainly to be in the mix for promotion. If you’re asking me who the value bet is, it’s probably Middlesbrough. They’re priced at four-to-one, which is only a probability percentage of twenty per cent. Well, they finished fifth with eighty points and reached the play-off final, and they’ve got more attacking options now. The major loss is Hayden Hackney, he was last season’s Championship Player of the Season, but again, there’s the proven current-division baseline, and the relegated clubs, they’re still rebuilding, and I think Middlesbrough are going to be there and thereabouts. So I’d rather take a four-to-one about a side that has already produced eighty Championship points than take odds-on against a relegated club whose midfield has been stripped.

Right, let’s finish off today, then, discussing League Two. So no big surprises really: that’s Salford City, five-to-four to get promotion there, just ahead of Bristol Rovers, they’re priced at fifteen-to-eight, ahead of Barnet at twos, Port Vale nine-to-four, Chesterfield nine-to-four, and a special shout-out to Grimsby Town, priced at five-to-two, Grimsby being my hometown club. Just to add to them, they had an absolute stormer last night: they played against Championship local rivals Lincoln, and Grimsby, the Mariners, came away with a five-one win there, leading three-nil at half-time, which was a massive surprise, to me to say the least. Looking at the other clubs, though: again, Barnet at two-to-one, you can probably say they’re the continuity case, that’s a probability of around thirty per cent. They finished eighth last season on seventy-six points, two points short of the play-offs, and their goal difference was plus seventeen, so it shows that they’re an attacking team, and with Dean Brennan remaining in charge, yeah, again, they’re a good outsider bet there. York City is one that I’m not sure about. They’re priced at eleven-to-four. Now, they won the National League with one hundred and eight points, and Ollie Pearce, he scored thirty-four league goals with them, so they could be dark horses. But again, it’s going to be Salford and Bristol Rovers who you feel are going to be the two automatic ones there.

So my three small ante-post leans at research prices: Middlesbrough promotion at four-to-one, Plymouth promotion at nine-to-two, and Barnet promotion at nine-to-four. And then, small positions, not promises. Squads change, prices move, and the market is only a starting position there. So, just to close, then. The biggest winner of the window so far is Aston Villa, the most ambitious buyer is Tottenham, and the club I worry about most is Newcastle. And the EFL value conversation starts with Middlesbrough, Plymouth and Barnet. So money does not only change the Premier League, it changes the betting markets all the way down the pyramid, and the volume often appears before the rebuilds are fully understood. Now, just to recap what I said before: this is an eighteen-plus show. Only ever stake what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, there is free and confidential help available through GambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline. Take time to think, and I’ll see you next week.

Roy: The twenty twenty-six, twenty-seven snooker season has kicked into gear with the Shanghai Masters. Now, this is a non-ranking event, but the prize money is great, meaning all the big-name players are there. That includes Ronnie O’Sullivan, though the Rocket did lose out to Kyren Wilson in the quarter-final stages, however. Xiao Guodong did land a 147 when he beat Neil Robertson in the last-sixteen stage. But then he, that is Neil Robertson, was consequently whitewashed six-nil by the twenty twenty-five world champion, Zhao Xintong. He then, therefore, progressed to the semi-finals, the first player to make the semi-finals. Now, the class-of-ninety-two-ers, John Higgins and Mark Williams, have gone deep, as has the twenty twenty-six world champion, Wu Yize. Now, personally, I think the days of asking when the Chinese players will dominate the sport are pretty much over, and we should accept that the revolution is now well under way. It’s interesting for me that Ronnie O’Sullivan, he praised Liu Linhao, the eighteen-year-old who he beat in the opening round of the Shanghai Masters, and the youngster recorded the highest break of the match. And I think, with Ronnie’s endorsement and that considered, he could be a name for the notebook. Turning to the World Championship, which is scheduled to start next April. Wait for it: it’s only eight months away. And it’s Zhao Xintong and Wu Yize that top the betting, on nine-to-two and thirteen-to-two. So that’s the defending champion and the twenty twenty-five champion. Judd Trump had a really ordinary twenty twenty-five season, and he wasn’t great in twenty twenty-four, twenty-five either, let’s not forget. He only took the German Masters last year. Nevertheless, the bookmakers know his class is in there somewhere, and he’s a seven-to-one shot. As for Ronnie O’Sullivan to win the World Championship yet again, well, if he pulls it off next year, he will land the odds of nine-to-one. That’s a quick look at the snooker. The season’s going to warm up nicely as we progress, but the Shanghai Masters, it’s a good way of deciding, right now, who’s hot and who’s not.

Roy: Horse racing then, and Galway and the Glorious Goodwood festivals conclude this weekend. While there are a couple of group races at the Sussex track, it’s fair to say that neither has kept the best for last. Nevertheless, the cavalry charge, that is the Stewards’ Cup handicap, is one of the most popular races on the calendar, but for me it’s also a minefield. So I’m not looking at the big meetings this weekend, and I’ve come up with a plan. Now, let me ask you a question. Sixty-nine pounds and twenty-three pence. That’s what you would have won if you’d backed every horse this jockey has ridden this season. The question is, what’s his name? Well, that’s Kaiya Fraser. And on Saturday, he’ll travel up to Hamilton to ride just one horse, in the final race on the card. Now, the horse’s name is Defence Missile. Interesting horse. I’ve gone through its form, and he was previously rated eighty. He now runs off of fifty. He popped up just a week ago, scoring on the all-weather at Newcastle at twenty-two-to-one. I think, and I sense, trainer Linda Perratt is going to strike while the iron is hot. Everything considered, with the jockey booking, this has to be my bet of the day. Across in the States, well, we have the Arlington Million. It’s no longer raced at Arlington Park, as that track was demolished, sadly, because it was a monster and it was beautiful. The race now takes place at the lesser-known Colonial Downs. Look out for a Chilean racer here called Gran Oriente. He’s chasing a four-timer, having won on both the east and west coasts of America, successful at Santa Anita and Gulfstream. To win any race at those two tracks, you can’t be a mug. Now, this race is over ten furlongs on the turf, and dare I say it, not all US jockeys are at their finest on the turf, especially over these kinds of distances. Anyway, this horse is assured to stay the trip. He’s won over it before, and he’s raced over further. And in a perfectly framed eight-runner race, I think he can definitely bag an each-way place, and he will be a big price. So, yeah, the bet in North America is Gran Oriente, and up in Scotland, for Kaiya Fraser, one runner, one bet, and that is Defence Missile. Guys, be lucky on the horses this weekend.

Roy: And so that’s a wrap for this week. Thank you so much for joining us here at the Odds-On podcast, courtesy of bestbettingsites.co.uk. I will remind you once again that GambleAware.org has some fantastic self-help tools if you ever run into any sort of problem with your gambling activities. Likewise, at bestbettingsites.co.uk you’ll find plenty of help, advice, tools and organisations that you can go to. At the end of the day, gambling should be fun. Keep it that way by keeping the stakes nice and small. Be lucky, have a great punting weekend, and we, myself and Adrian Dane, will look forward to talking to you then.

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