Premier League · Saturday 29 August 2026, 17:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Goals have been in short supply for both sides lately. Tottenham Hotspur have cleared 3.5 in just 20 per cent of their last 10, Newcastle United in 40 per cent, and between them they have kept 5 clean sheets across that stretch. Under 3.5 fits the shape of this fixture more often than 1/2 suggests.
Both attacks are ticking and neither defence is watertight. BTTS has landed in 50 per cent of Tottenham Hotspur’s recent matches and 80 per cent of Newcastle United’s; Tottenham Hotspur have kept just 4 clean sheets in that run and Newcastle United have been held scoreless only once. Both teams to score looks bigger than 4/7 given that pattern.
Tottenham Hotspur are the stronger side on the season’s overall run, 6 wins from their last 10 and just 1 defeat, but this fixture reads differently. Newcastle United have won 3 of the last 5 meetings and Tottenham Hotspur have not beaten them once in that sequence. Newcastle United’s away form is patchier, 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats on the road, yet the freshest form point belongs to them: West Bromwich Albion beaten 3-2 in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. At 2/1, this pick leans on the head-to-head pattern and that recent momentum, not the wider league form.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
2026/27 is only 1 game(s) old, so this is a small sample: the last 1 shown, read alongside late-2025/26 form.
Recent form (last 1 matches (2026/27 so far), all competitions)
The record
| Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur home / Newcastle United away | 4-3-0 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.10 | 1.20 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 2 | 1 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 0.71 | 2 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Venue row is Tottenham Hotspur at home and Newcastle United away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 80% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 50% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 43% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 20% | 40% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 50% | 80% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 57% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Last 5 meetings (Tottenham Hotspur’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Tottenham Hotspur wins / draws / Newcastle United wins | 0-2-3 |
| Goals (Tottenham Hotspur / Newcastle United) | 5 / 9 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.8 |
| Both teams scored | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
2026/27 so far, 1 played
| Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 18 | 10 |
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 0-0-1 | 0-1-0 |
| Goals for-against | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Goal difference | -3 | +0 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Tottenham Hotspur win, our form model vs the market price
The market leans Tottenham Hotspur, but the recent form reads it differently: it makes the Tottenham Hotspur win a 50 per cent chance, more than the best price allows for. That difference is the value, and it is why 6/4 about Tottenham Hotspur catches the eye.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Tottenham Hotspur (last 10) | Newcastle United (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Home / away split | 4-3-0 | 1-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| BTTS % | 50% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 18 | 0 | 0-3 |
| Newcastle United | 10 | 1 | 2-2 |
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