Premier League · Saturday 19 September 2026, 12:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
The recent pattern points low. Only 0 per cent of Tottenham Hotspur’s last 4 cleared 3.5 goals, Aston Villa sit at 25 per cent, and the two have kept 3 clean sheets between them across the window. The recent numbers have this landing more often than 4/11 allows for, and that margin is why the leg is here.
Tottenham Hotspur come in 0-2-2 from their last 4 in all competitions, Aston Villa 0-1-3: this pick leans on the match-up rather than the form table. The venue split is part of that case: no wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in front of their own crowd. Tottenham Hotspur drew 0-0 with Everton on Saturday. There is no hidden value at 1/1; it is simply the right call for how this fixture shapes up.
One clean sheet looks likelier than none here. BTTS has missed in 100 per cent of Tottenham Hotspur’s last 4 and 75 per cent of Aston Villa’s, and the sides have drawn a blank 7 times between them in the window. 11/10 reads a shade generous against the recent record, which is exactly what we want from a builder leg.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
2026/27 is only 4 game(s) old, so this is a small sample: the last 4 shown, read alongside late-2025/26 form.
Recent form (last 4 matches (2026/27 so far), all competitions)
The record
| Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 0-2-2 | 0-1-3 |
| Tottenham Hotspur home / Aston Villa away | 0-1-1 | 0-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.25 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 0 | 0.25 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 0 | 0 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 1 | 2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 |
Venue row is Tottenham Hotspur at home and Aston Villa away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 25% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 0% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 0% | 25% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 0% | 25% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 |
Last 5 meetings (Tottenham Hotspur’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Tottenham Hotspur wins / draws / Aston Villa wins | 1-0-4 |
| Goals (Tottenham Hotspur / Aston Villa) | 5 / 9 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.8 |
| Both teams scored | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
2026/27 so far, 4 played
| Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17 | 19 |
| Points | 2 | 1 |
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 0-2-2 | 0-1-3 |
| Goals for-against | 0-5 | 1-7 |
| Goal difference | -5 | -6 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Aston Villa win, our form model vs the market price
The market makes Tottenham Hotspur favourites and our form numbers broadly agree; nothing in the 1X2 is mispriced by more than a point or two, so the value hunting happens in the builder markets higher up the page.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Tottenham Hotspur (last 4) | Aston Villa (last 4) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 0-2-2 | 0-1-3 |
| Home / away split | 0-1-1 | 0-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 0 | 0.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| BTTS % | 0% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 17 | 2 | 0-5 |
| Aston Villa | 19 | 1 | 1-7 |
18+ only. Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. Always gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply to all offers shown.