Newcastle's European push was effectively ended at Forest last weekend, leaving the Toon with little to play for at home where they have managed only two wins in their last seven Premier League meetings with West Ham.
West Ham travel to St James' Park needing the win to drag themselves out of the relegation zone, averaging just 0.94 points per match on the road this season and sitting two points adrift of Tottenham.
The last 13 meetings between these sides have produced an average of 3.9 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 77 per cent of them and four draws across the run.
Our AI Predictions for the Match Between Newcastle and West Ham
To provide the most comprehensive betting insights, we have leveraged the analytical power of three leading AI models: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT. Each AI has processed the available data to offer a distinct prediction on a key market for this match. Their conclusions are presented clearly below, and you can click on any prediction to reveal the detailed reasoning behind their data-driven analysis.
The market angle on this fixture lands at 1-1. The scoreline has appeared twice in recent head-to-head meetings (February 2023 and the run before that), and with Newcastle’s home record against West Ham showing four draws across the last thirteen, the route the data points to is a tight, level finish. The 8/1-area average across the operators reads as fair value rather than a sentimental pick.
claude
Prediction of AI claude modelBoth Teams to Score in 1st Half: Yes
Both teams need goals and both teams can find them. Newcastle’s home scoring rate sits at 94 per cent and they average 13.4 shots per match, while West Ham have produced seven first-half goals on their travels this season. Add a visitor needing the win to escape the relegation zone and the conditions favour an open first 45.
Gemini
Prediction of AI Gemini modelMatch Result + BTTS: Draw and Yes
The head-to-head record across these two reads four draws in the last thirteen meetings, with both teams scoring in 77 per cent of those clashes. A 1-1 in February 2023 and a 2-2 in October 2023 underline how often this fixture lands on a level scoreline with goals at each end.
The Draw at 10/3 with QuinnBet is the call for me here. Claude’s BTTS first-half angle at 11/5 looks the safer play, but the bigger price on the draw feels worth taking given the context. Newcastle’s European push has been checked by the Forest result, while West Ham look capable of travelling with enough discipline to take a point, despite averaging just 0.94 PPG on the road. The Toon have won only two of their last seven Premier League home meetings with West Ham, and the wider H2H run includes four draws in the last thirteen. At 10/3, the price fits both the data and the mood heading into kick-off.
Value Bets from Our Algorithm
Our value bets are generated by combining insights from advanced research models with key football data points. The algorithm looks beyond simple win-draw-lose outcomes and weighs factors such as recent form, head-to-head records, expected goals (xG), injury news, home and away performance trends, and market odds movement. This data-driven approach identifies betting opportunities where the odds may undervalue the true probability of an outcome.
Our model rates the draw at 28 per cent against an implied 23 per cent from the 10/3, a slight lean backed by four draws in the last thirteen H2H meetings and Newcastle’s two-from-seven home record against West Ham in the Premier League.
Our model rates this at 32 per cent against an implied 27 per cent at 11/4, a fair edge built on H2H meetings averaging 3.9 goals per match and Newcastle’s 95-goal output across 56 matches this season.
The 15/2 implies 12 per cent and our model rates 1-1 closer to 17 per cent, priced a shade short for the H2H pattern of a 1-1 in February 2023 plus four draws across the last thirteen meetings.
Our model gives 19 per cent against an implied 17 per cent from the 5/1, a thin edge reflecting Newcastle’s attacking output (95 goals in 56 matches) against a West Ham defence that has struggled away from home.
Player Focus Bets
Based on recent form and historical data, our top picks for the Anytime Goalscorer market in this match between Newcastle and West Ham:
Bruno Guimaraes is the standout Newcastle anytime scorer angle at 18/5 with Midnite. The Brazilian midfielder has nine goals from twenty-seven appearances at a 7.2 average rating, with regular set-piece arrivals into the box and shot threat from central midfield. Against a West Ham side averaging 0.94 points per match on the road and travelling desperate for a result, the gaps should open up for Newcastle’s deeper playmaker. (Newcastle)
Jarrod Bowen at 9/4 for anytime goalscorer is the West Ham angle. The captain leads the Hammers’ attack with eight goals and ten assists from thirty-six appearances at a 7.0 average rating, and is the primary outlet on a side that has to chase three points to climb above the relegation line. The price reflects his role as the team’s focal point against a Newcastle defence missing Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento. (West Ham)
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10 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United0 : 1Arsenal
02 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueBrentford3 : 0West Ham United
25 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United2 : 1Everton
20 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace0 : 0West Ham United
10 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United4 : 0Wolverhampton Wanderers
05 Apr 2026 –
FA CupWest Ham United4 : 6Leeds United
WINS3
DRAW1
LOSSES2
Average Stats (Last 8 Matches)
32 Total goals
50% BTTS
18 Goals scored
14 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
25% Under 2.5
10 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United0 : 1Arsenal
25 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United2 : 1Everton
10 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United4 : 0Wolverhampton Wanderers
05 Apr 2026 –
FA CupWest Ham United4 : 6Leeds United
14 Mar 2026 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United1 : 1Manchester City
09 Mar 2026 –
FA CupWest Ham United7 : 5Brentford
WINS2
DRAW1
LOSSES3
Average Stats (Last 6 Matches)
14 Total goals
17% BTTS
4 Goals scored
10 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5
02 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueBrentford3 : 0West Ham United
20 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace0 : 0West Ham United
22 Mar 2026 –
Premier LeagueAston Villa2 : 0West Ham United
04 Mar 2026 –
Premier LeagueFulham0 : 1West Ham United
28 Feb 2026 –
Premier LeagueLiverpool5 : 2West Ham United
14 Feb 2026 –
FA CupBurton Albion0 : 1West Ham United
West Ham
Starting XI
Starting XI
4-5-1
Possible Lineup
1Mads Hermansen
2Kyle Walker-Peters
12El Hadji Malick Diouf
15Konstantinos Mavropanos
4Axel Disasi
7Crysencio Summerville
28Tomas Soucek
18Mateus Fernandes
20Jarrod Bowen
19Pablo Felipe
11Taty Castellanos
Note: Official lineups are typically confirmed 60 minutes before kick-off. These predictions are based on the latest team news and recent selections.
Newcastle vs West Ham Head-to-Head Record
02 Nov 2025 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United3 : 1Newcastle United
10 Mar 2025 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United0 : 1Newcastle United
25 Nov 2024 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United0 : 2West Ham United
30 Mar 2024 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United4 : 3West Ham United
08 Oct 2023 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United2 : 2Newcastle United
05 Apr 2023 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United1 : 5Newcastle United
04 Feb 2023 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United1 : 1West Ham United
19 Feb 2022 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United1 : 1Newcastle United
15 Aug 2021 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United2 : 4West Ham United
17 Apr 2021 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United3 : 2West Ham United
12 Sep 2020 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United0 : 2Newcastle United
05 Jul 2020 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United2 : 2West Ham United
02 Nov 2019 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United2 : 3Newcastle United
02 Mar 2019 –
Premier LeagueWest Ham United2 : 0Newcastle United
League Games at Newcastle
Newcastle
West Ham
Goals: Scored1214
Games: Scored5/66/6
Clean Sheets0/61/6
League Games at West Ham
Newcastle
West Ham
Goals: Scored1511
Games: Scored8/86/8
Clean Sheets2/81/8
Current Best Betting Odds for Newcastle vs West Ham
When it comes to betting on this Premier League fixture, getting the best odds can make all the difference to your returns. Below, we’ve compared the top prices available from trusted betting sites for the upcoming clash between Newcastle and West Ham.
For those looking beyond the obvious outcomes in their football betting predictions, we’ve highlighted a few long shot bets for the Newcastle vs West Ham clash. These are higher-risk selections that carry a lower probability of success, but offer the potential for significantly greater odds.
Newcastle vs West Ham Long-Shot Betting
Bet Type
Selection
Odds
Rationale
Long-Shot Bet 1
Newcastle to Win to Nil
4/1 (Bet365)
Newcastle winning without conceding requires both attacking prowess and defensive solidity. A clean sheet adds difficulty but increases the reward significantly. At 4/1, the potential returns justify the risk.
Long-Shot Bet 2
Over 6.5 Total Goals
12/1 (Bet365)
Over 6.5 goals requires a high-scoring affair with at least 7 goals. Both sides' attacking intent and this fixture's history of entertainment make this worth consideration. At 12/1, the potential returns justify the risk.
Long-Shot Bet 3
West Ham Over 3.5 Goals
10/1 (Coral)
This bet backs West Ham to score 4+ goals. Their recent attacking form and the opposition's defensive vulnerabilities make this an intriguing high-reward selection. At 10/1, the potential returns justify the risk.
Bet Builder Suggestions
If you really want to see a return, Bet Builders are a great way to combine different markets into one high-odds selection. These are risky, but when they land, the payout can be massive.
Here are some long-shot Bet Builder ideas for the Newcastle vs West Ham clash:
Tight goal-filled draw angle: Draw + Both Teams to Score Yes + Under 4.5 Goals at around 10/1, the cleanest expression of the H2H pattern across recent meetings.
Newcastle-led narrow win combo: Newcastle to Win + Bruno Guimaraes Anytime Scorer + Both Teams to Score Yes at around 12/1, the alternate scenario if the home side break the draw run.
Open West Ham contribution combo: Jarrod Bowen Anytime Scorer + Both Teams to Score in 1st Half Yes + Over 3.5 Goals at around 15/2, the high-scoring scenario built around West Ham’s primary outlet finding the net.
Quick Betting Angles
These Quick Betting Angles cut through the noise and turn stats into actionable insights for Newcastle vs West Ham on 17 May 2026 at 5:30 PM.
Betting Angle (Both Teams to Score): Both Teams to Score Yes is the play. The H2H thread shows BTTS in 77 per cent of the last thirteen meetings, ten of thirteen in plain terms, including the 3-1 West Ham home win in November 2025 and the 4-3 Newcastle home win in March 2024. The combination markets carry the better price, with Both Teams to Score 2+ Goals at 11/4 the standout angle for the volume.
Betting Angle (Total Goals): The 3.9-goal average across the last thirteen H2H meetings makes the case for goals. Pure Over 2.5 prices below the value floor, so the angle lives in the combination markets, with Both Teams to Score 2+ Goals at 11/4 at Betfred capturing the high-scoring scenario without overpaying.
Betting Angle (Home Advantage): Newcastle’s home advantage breaks down against this opponent specifically. Just two wins in their last seven Premier League home meetings with West Ham, four draws across the run, and the European push closed by the Forest result. Draw at QuinnBet’s 10/3 pairs the H2H data with the price.
Match Information:
Competition: Premier League
Stage: Premier League
Kick-off: 17 May 2026 at 5:30 PM
Sport: Soccer
Where to Watch Newcastle vs West Ham
TV channel:
Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League, Sky Sports Ultra HDR
Online streaming:
Sky Go, Now TV
Free highlights:
Match of the Day 2 (BBC One, Sunday night), Premier League YouTube channel
