Newcastle vs Leeds Betting Tips & Predictions

Premier League 7 January 2026 at 8:15 PM
Newcastle
Top tip Both Teams to Score
Leeds
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  • Newcastle pushing for European spots: With back-to-back victories, Newcastle United are aiming to continue their strong form and strengthen their position for European qualification as they host Leeds at St James' Park.
  • Leeds fighting off relegation: Leeds are struggling, particularly away from home, and will be desperate to turn their form around to avoid slipping deeper into the relegation zone.
  • Tactical clash between Eddie Howe and Daniel Farke: This match will feature two managers with different styles, with Howe’s well-organised Newcastle looking to press their advantage, while Farke’s Leeds side will need to be more solid defensively to withstand the attacking pressure.

Our AI Predictions for the Match Between Newcastle and Leeds

To provide a comprehensive betting perspective, we have analysed predictions from three of the most advanced AI models: ChatGPT and Gemini. Each AI offers its top prediction for the match, clearly presented with its official logo. For those seeking deeper insight, you can click on any prediction to reveal the detailed reasoning and data analysis that led to the AI’s conclusion, ensuring full transparency.

Prediction of AI ChatGPT modelBoth Teams to Score
Odds for This Bet 5/64/54/5
BTTS offers value given both sides boast attacking threats and recent scoring records. Newcastle’s prodigious home attack and Leeds’ counter-attacking options provide frequent goal opportunities at St James’ Park.
Prediction of AI Gemini modelOver 2.5 Goals
Odds for This Bet 5/64/54/5
Gemini prioritises the Over/Under market, finding strong value in a high-scoring encounter. Newcastle United’s attacking prowess at St. James’ Park, coupled with Leeds United’s defensive injuries and their need to score, points towards three or more goals in this match.
Summary and Final Prediction
Leon Marshall Chief Editor at
Last updated: January 6, 2026
Why we chose the prediction we did from the options that were available to us?

Both Teams to Score is a highly recommended bet for this fixture based on recent form and match statistics. Newcastle have been consistent in finding the net at home, scoring in 7 of their last 7 games at St James’ Park, which includes a 2-1 win over Fulham and a 2-2 draw with Chelsea. Leeds, despite their struggles, have also managed to score in their recent games, including a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace and a 3-3 draw with Liverpool. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities defensively, with Newcastle conceding in 4 of their last 6 matches, and Leeds’ defensive frailties being evident, particularly away from home. Given their attacking potential and defensive issues, this match is likely to see goals from both sides, making Both Teams to Score a strong betting option

Value Bets from Our Algorithm

Our value bets are identified by a sophisticated algorithm that analyses a wide array of statistical indicators. It goes beyond simple win-loss probabilities to assess factors like recent team form, head-to-head results, expected goals (xG), and home versus away performance. By also considering market odds and key team news such as injuries and suspensions, the algorithm pinpoints bets that offer genuine value.

Bet 1
  • Match Result — Home Win
  • Probability: 66%
  • Best Odds: 73/100 (1.73) at 10bet
  • Newcastle United’s formidable record at St. James’ Park, combined with their superior squad depth, makes them clear favourites against an injury-hit Leeds side.
Bet 2
  • Both Teams to Score — Our model leans towards Yes.
  • Probability: 60%
  • Best Odds: 5/6 (1.833) at Ladbrokes
  • With Newcastle’s potent home attack and Leeds’ counter-attacking threat led by Dominic Calvert-Lewin, there is a strong likelihood that both sides will score.
Bet 3
  • Over 2.5 Goals
  • Probability: 68%
  • Best Odds: 5/6 (1.833) at 10bet
  • We can expect over 2.5 goals due to both teams’ attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities, with Newcastle averaging 2.6 goals per game at home and Leeds scoring in most of their recent matches, coupled with the fact that both sides have conceded in their recent fixtures.
Bet 4
  • Double Chance — Newcastle United or Draw
  • Probability: 86%
  • Best Odds: 2/11 (1.182) at Ladbrokes
  • Given their strength at home and Leeds’ current injury situation, it is highly improbable that Newcastle United will suffer a defeat in this fixture.

Player Focus Bets

Based on recent form and historical data, our top picks for the Anytime Goalscorer market in this match between Newcastle and Leeds:

  • Bruno Guimarães is an excellent choice for the anytime goalscorer market, thanks to his role as a key creative and attacking force in Newcastle’s midfield. With seven goals in 18 appearances, he has proven himself capable of finding the back of the net regularly from central areas. His ability to make late runs into the box and his strong shot-taking ability (averaging 1.5 shots per game) make him a constant threat, particularly in a Newcastle side that tends to control possession and create chances through the middle. Additionally, his 86.7% passing accuracy and 3 Man of the Match awards underline his importance to the team’s attacking play. Given Leeds’ defensive frailties, particularly in the midfield and defensive transitions, Guimarães is well-positioned to take advantage of any space and be involved in scoring opportunities, whether from open play or set pieces. (Newcastle)
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin is an excellent candidate for the anytime goalscorer market, given his impressive recent run of form. He has scored in six of Leeds’ last eight matches, demonstrating consistent goalscoring ability and a knack for finding the back of the net. With eight goals in 13 starts, Calvert-Lewin has been a pivotal figure in Leeds’ attacking play, averaging 2.1 shots per game and playing a key role in leading the line. His 60.4% shot accuracy further highlights his efficiency in front of goal, making him a dangerous player in a match where Leeds will likely need to capitalise on attacking opportunities against a solid Newcastle defence. (Leeds)

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Newcastle Form and Stats

Last MatchesNewcastle
           
WINS 3
DRAW 1
LOSSES 2
Average Stats (Last 14 Matches)
  • 43 Total goals
  • 71% BTTS
  • 25 Goals scored
  • 18 Goals conceded
  • 71% Over 2.5
  • 29% Under 2.5
  • 04 Jan 2026 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 0Crystal Palace
  • 30 Dec 2025 – Premier League Burnley1 : 3Newcastle United
  • 26 Dec 2025 – Premier League Manchester United1 : 0Newcastle United
  • 20 Dec 2025 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 2Chelsea
  • 17 Dec 2025 – EFL Cup Newcastle United2 : 1Fulham
  • 14 Dec 2025 – Premier League Sunderland1 : 0Newcastle United
           
WINS 4
DRAW 2
LOSSES 0
Average Stats (Last 7 Matches)
  • 19 Total goals
  • 71% BTTS
  • 12 Goals scored
  • 7 Goals conceded
  • 71% Over 2.5
  • 14% Under 2.5
  • 04 Jan 2026 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 0Crystal Palace
  • 20 Dec 2025 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 2Chelsea
  • 17 Dec 2025 – EFL Cup Newcastle United2 : 1Fulham
  • 06 Dec 2025 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 1Burnley
  • 02 Dec 2025 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 2Tottenham Hotspur
  • 22 Nov 2025 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 1Manchester City
           
WINS 2
DRAW 1
LOSSES 3
Average Stats (Last 7 Matches)
  • 18 Total goals
  • 57% BTTS
  • 10 Goals scored
  • 8 Goals conceded
  • 57% Over 2.5
  • 29% Under 2.5
  • 30 Dec 2025 – Premier League Burnley1 : 3Newcastle United
  • 26 Dec 2025 – Premier League Manchester United1 : 0Newcastle United
  • 14 Dec 2025 – Premier League Sunderland1 : 0Newcastle United
  • 10 Dec 2025 – Champions League Bayer Leverkusen2 : 2Newcastle United
  • 29 Nov 2025 – Premier League Everton1 : 4Newcastle United
  • 25 Nov 2025 – Champions League Marseille2 : 1Newcastle United

Starting XI

4-3-3

Possible
Lineup
1 N. Pope
67 L. Miley
5 F. Schär
12 M. Thiaw
3 L. Hall
7 Joelinton
39 Bruno Guimarães
8 S. Tonali
10 A. Gordon
23 Jacob Murphy
9 Y. Wissa
Substitutes
  • 11H. Barnes
  • 4S. Botman
  • 21T. Livramento
  • 37A. Murphy
  • 32A. Ramsdale
  • 41J. Ramsey
  • 2K. Trippier
  • 28J. Willock
  • 27N. Woltemade
Suspension
  • None reported
Injured
  • 1William Osula Ankle injury
  • 2Dan Burn Chest injury
  • 3Emil Krafth Knee injury

Note: Official lineups are typically confirmed 60 minutes before kick-off. These predictions are based on the latest team news and recent selections.

Leeds Form and Stats

Last MatchesLeeds
           
WINS 1
DRAW 5
LOSSES 0
Average Stats (Last 14 Matches)
  • 44 Total goals
  • 79% BTTS
  • 20 Goals scored
  • 24 Goals conceded
  • 64% Over 2.5
  • 36% Under 2.5
  • 04 Jan 2026 – Premier League Leeds United1 : 1Manchester United
  • 01 Jan 2026 – Premier League Liverpool0 : 0Leeds United
  • 28 Dec 2025 – Premier League Sunderland1 : 1Leeds United
  • 20 Dec 2025 – Premier League Leeds United4 : 1Crystal Palace
  • 14 Dec 2025 – Premier League Brentford1 : 1Leeds United
  • 06 Dec 2025 – Premier League Leeds United3 : 3Liverpool
           
WINS 3
DRAW 2
LOSSES 1
Average Stats (Last 7 Matches)
  • 23 Total goals
  • 86% BTTS
  • 14 Goals scored
  • 9 Goals conceded
  • 71% Over 2.5
  • 14% Under 2.5
  • 04 Jan 2026 – Premier League Leeds United1 : 1Manchester United
  • 20 Dec 2025 – Premier League Leeds United4 : 1Crystal Palace
  • 06 Dec 2025 – Premier League Leeds United3 : 3Liverpool
  • 03 Dec 2025 – Premier League Leeds United3 : 1Chelsea
  • 23 Nov 2025 – Premier League Leeds United1 : 2Aston Villa
  • 24 Oct 2025 – Premier League Leeds United2 : 1West Ham United
           
WINS 0
DRAW 3
LOSSES 3
Average Stats (Last 7 Matches)
  • 16 Total goals
  • 57% BTTS
  • 5 Goals scored
  • 11 Goals conceded
  • 43% Over 2.5
  • 43% Under 2.5
  • 01 Jan 2026 – Premier League Liverpool0 : 0Leeds United
  • 28 Dec 2025 – Premier League Sunderland1 : 1Leeds United
  • 14 Dec 2025 – Premier League Brentford1 : 1Leeds United
  • 29 Nov 2025 – Premier League Manchester City3 : 2Leeds United
  • 09 Nov 2025 – Premier League Nottingham Forest3 : 1Leeds United
  • 01 Nov 2025 – Premier League Brighton & Hove Albion3 : 0Leeds United

Starting XI

3-5-2

Possible
Lineup
1 Lucas Perri
44 I. Gruev
15 J. Bijol
23 S. Bornauw
3 G. Gudmundsson
5 P. Struijk
24 J. Justin
11 B. Aaronson
18 A. Stach
19 N. Okafor
9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Substitutes
  • 25S. Byram
  • 42S. Chambers
  • 26K. Darlow
  • 29W. Gnonto
  • 20J. Harrison
  • 8S. Longstaff
  • 14L. Nmecha
  • 10J. Piroe
  • 22A. Tanaka
Suspension
  • None reported
Injured
  • 1Daniel James Thigh injury
  • 2Joe Rodon Foot injury

Note: Official lineups are typically confirmed 60 minutes before kick-off. These predictions are based on the latest team news and recent selections.

Newcastle vs Leeds Head-to-Head Record

  • 30 Aug 2025 – Premier League Leeds United 0 : 0 Newcastle United
  • 13 May 2023 – Premier League Leeds United 2 : 2 Newcastle United
  • 31 Dec 2022 – Premier League Newcastle United 0 : 0 Leeds United
  • 22 Jan 2022 – Premier League Leeds United 0 : 1 Newcastle United
League Games at Newcastle
  • Newcastle
  • Leeds
  • Goals: Scored 0 0
  • Games: Scored 0/1 0/1
  • Clean Sheets 1/1 1/1
League Games at Leeds
  • Newcastle
  • Leeds
  • Goals: Scored 3 2
  • Games: Scored 3/3 1/3
  • Clean Sheets 2/3 1/3

Current Best Betting Odds for Newcastle vs Leeds

When it comes to betting on this Premier League fixture, getting the best odds can make all the difference to your returns. Below, we’ve compared the top prices available from trusted betting sites for the upcoming clash between Newcastle and Leeds.

Newcastle vs Leeds
Bookmaker1X2Visit Site
Coral
5/5
Home 7/10
Draw 29/10
Away 19/5
Visit Site
10bet
5/5
Home 71/100
Draw 29/10
Away 41/10
Visit Site
Bet365
5/5
Home 2/3
Draw 14/5
Away 4/1
Visit Site
Ladbrokes
5/5
Home 2/3
Draw 29/10
Away 19/5
Visit Site

Newcastle vs Leeds Bet Builder Betting

If you really want to see a return from our football betting predictions, Bet Builders are a great way to combine different markets into one high-odds selection. These are risky, but when they land, the payout can be massive.

For those looking beyond the obvious outcomes we’ve highlighted a few long shot bets for the Newcastle vs Leeds clash. These are higher-risk selections that carry a lower probability of success, but offer the potential for significantly greater odds.

Here are some long-shot Bet Builder ideas for the Newcastle vs Leeds clash:

  • Newcastle to Win + Over 2.5 Goals + Both Teams to Score (Combined odds: 15/2)
  • Leeds to Score First + Newcastle to Win + Over 3.5 Goals (Combined odds: 11/1)
  • Draw at Half-Time + Newcastle to Win + BTTS (Combined odds: 14/1)

Quick Betting Angles

These Quick Betting Angles cut through the noise and turn stats into actionable insights for Newcastle vs Leeds on 7 January 2026 at 8:15 PM.

  1. Betting Angle (Both Teams to Score): Newcastle’s attack is consistently effective at home, but they are not always defensively perfect. Leeds, despite their challenges, possess the firepower in Dominic Calvert-Lewin to exploit any defensive lapses, making a ‘Both Teams to Score’ outcome highly probable.
  2. Betting Angle (Total Goals): Expect a lively match with 3-4 goals in total. Newcastle are likely to score multiple goals, but Leeds have enough quality in attack to contribute to the scoresheet and push the total over 2.5.
  3. Betting Angle (Home Advantage): Home advantage could indeed benefit Newcastle in this clash, as they’ve demonstrated strong form at St James’ Park, winning seven of their last ten home matches. Their recent victories over teams like Fulham and Nottingham Forest, alongside a solid win against Manchester City, show that they can produce under pressure at home. While they’ve had mixed results, including a 3-2 loss to Liverpool, their overall record and recent form suggest that playing at home gives them a slight edge, particularly against a Leeds side that has struggled on the road.

Where to Watch Newcastle vs Leeds

TV channel:

The match will be broadcast live in the UK on Sky Sports Cricket.

Online streaming:

Streaming is available on the Sky App and Now TV.

Free highlights:

Highlights will be available on the Sky Sports website, the Sky App, the official Premier League YouTube channel and later in the week on Match of the Day (BBC).