Newcastle United vs Liverpool Bet Builder & Prediction
Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Newcastle United v Liverpool, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
Our Bet Builder
2 legs
1
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
1/2
2
Match Result
Newcastle United to win
5/2
Combined Bet Builder odds 5.18
Bet £10, compare your returns
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Why we’ve picked these legs
Over 2.5 Goals 1/2
Goals follow both of these sides around. 60 per cent of Newcastle United’s last 10 went over 2.5 and 50 per cent of Liverpool’s did the same, with the pair averaging 3.1 goals a match between them. There is no great edge in the number, 1/2 implies 68 per cent and form says 55, but the leg fits the shape of the match and keeps the builder coherent.
The numbers behind this pick
Newcastle United over 2.5 % (last 10)60%
Newcastle United goals per game1.4
Liverpool over 2.5 % (last 10)50%
Liverpool goals per game1.7
Form is each side’s recent competitive matches, the count shown per stat (reaches into last season before a ball is kicked). Source: our own match data.
Newcastle United to win 5/2
Newcastle United arrive with the stronger recent record: 3 wins from their last 10 in all competitions, while Liverpool have lost 4 of 10. The venue split backs it up: 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in front of their own crowd. At 5/2 the price implies 29 per cent and the form numbers say 35. We are happy to take that side of the line.
The numbers behind this pick
Newcastle United last 10 (W-D-L)3-3-4
Newcastle United at home2-1-2
Liverpool last 10 (W-D-L)3-3-4
Liverpool away0-0-2
Newcastle United wins in last 5 H2H1
Form is each side’s recent competitive matches, the count shown per stat (reaches into last season before a ball is kicked). Source: our own match data.
Match DNA
last 10 · all comps
Head-to-head profile
Newcastle United Liverpool
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Newcastle United Liverpool
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
Stat centre: Newcastle United v Liverpool
The 2026/27 season has not started. These are 2025/26 and recent-form numbers, not 2026/27 form. They update once the new season is under way.
Recent form (last 10 matches, end of 2025/26 plus pre-season, all competitions)
Newcastle United
3W 3D 4L
Liverpool
3W 3D 4L
The record
| Newcastle United | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Newcastle United home / Liverpool away | 2-1-2 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Nick Woltemade Newcastle United
8
Harvey Barnes Newcastle United
7
Hugo Ekitiké Liverpool
11
Cody Gakpo Liverpool
7
Goals per game
Newcastle United Liverpool
1.4
Scored / game
1.7
1.6
Conceded / game
1.8
1
Clean sheets
3
1
Failed to score
1
Overall and venue split
| Newcastle United | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 1.8 | 2 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Venue row is Newcastle United at home and Liverpool away.
Goals-line hit rate
Newcastle United Liverpool
100%
Over 1.5 goals
80%
60%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
30%
Over 3.5 goals
50%
Overall and venue split
| Newcastle United | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 80% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 30% | 50% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
75%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
90%
Over 1.5 goals
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Newcastle United | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 80% | 70% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 80% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
Last 5 meetings (Newcastle United’s view)
LIV4-1NEW
2026-01-31 · Anfield
NEW lost
NEW2-3LIV
2025-08-25 · St. James’ Park
NEW lost
LIV1-2NEW
2025-03-16 · Wembley Stadium
NEW won
LIV2-0NEW
2025-02-26 · Anfield
NEW lost
NEW3-3LIV
2024-12-04 · St. James’ Park
NEW drew
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Newcastle United wins / draws / Liverpool wins | 1-1-3 |
| Goals (Newcastle United / Liverpool) | 8 / 13 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 4.2 |
| Both teams scored | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
2025/26 final table
| Newcastle United | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12 | 5 |
| Points | 49 | 60 |
| Played | 38 | 38 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 14-7-17 | 17-9-12 |
| Goals for-against | 53-55 | 63-53 |
| Goal difference | -2 | +10 |
Points and goals
Newcastle United Liverpool
49
Points
60
53
Goals for
63
55
Goals against
53
Latest match odds
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Home Win
Newcastle United
5/2
best price · BoyleSports
Draw
Draw
3/1
best price · 10Bet
Away Win
Liverpool
1/1
best price · BetFred
Match pulse
market vs form
48%
Liverpool favourites
Newcastle United win
27%
Draw
25%
Liverpool win
48%
Newcastle United win, our form model vs the market price
market 27%
0%form 35% · +8 pts of value60%
The bookmakers favour Liverpool, but our model gives Newcastle United a 35% chance of winning. The odds of 5/2 suggest Newcastle have only about a 27% chance, so our model sees some value in the home win. That is why Newcastle at 5/2 is the main selection in the bet builder.
Full match stats
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
Form: last 10 matches
| Newcastle United (last 10) | Liverpool (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Home / away split | 2-1-2 | 0-0-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| BTTS % | 80% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
Rolling recent-form window; crosses into last season until the new season has played enough matches.
Head-to-head: last 5 meetings
2026-01-31 · Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle UnitedAnfield
2025-08-25 · Newcastle United 2-3 LiverpoolSt. James’ Park
2025-03-16 · Liverpool 1-2 Newcastle UnitedWembley Stadium
2025-02-26 · Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle UnitedAnfield
2024-12-04 · Newcastle United 3-3 LiverpoolSt. James’ Park
Last season : league position
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 12 | 49 | 53-55 |
| Liverpool | 5 | 60 | 63-53 |
Leading scorers, last season
Newcastle United: Nick Woltemade8 league goals in 2025/26
Newcastle United: Harvey Barnes7 league goals in 2025/26
Liverpool: Hugo Ekitiké11 league goals in 2025/26
Liverpool: Cody Gakpo7 league goals in 2025/26
Each club’s leading league scorers from last season. Goals are 2025/26 totals for the club shown.
18+ only. Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. Always gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply to all offers shown.