Saturday 5 September 2026, 12:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
The 4.5-goals line, taken on the day’s prices. A judgement call on the day rather than a stats one, and 2/9 is the pick of the prices.
Goals follow both of these sides around. 70 per cent of Newcastle United’s last 10 went over 2.5 and 60 per cent of AFC Bournemouth’s did the same, with the pair averaging 4.4 goals a match between them. The market is underrating this one; at 2/3 the price is bigger than the form warrants.
Newcastle United come in 4-3-3 from their last 10 in all competitions, AFC Bournemouth 4-4-2: this pick leans on the match-up rather than the form table. The venue split is part of that case: 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in front of their own crowd. Newcastle United beat Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 on Saturday, exactly the form this pick leans on. The price is about right at 5/4. This pick is about the pattern of the match, not the margin.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
2026/27 is only 2 game(s) old, so this is a small sample: the last 2 shown, read alongside late-2025/26 form.
Recent form (last 2 matches (2026/27 so far), all competitions)
The record
| Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Newcastle United home / AFC Bournemouth away | 2-2-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.60 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 1.67 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
Venue row is Newcastle United at home and AFC Bournemouth away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 70% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 83% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 40% | 40% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 80% | 90% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
Last 5 meetings (Newcastle United’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Newcastle United wins / draws / AFC Bournemouth wins | 0-3-2 |
| Goals (Newcastle United / AFC Bournemouth) | 6 / 10 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 3.2 |
| Both teams scored | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
2026/27 so far, 2 played
| Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6 | 14 |
| Points | 4 | 1 |
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 1-1-0 | 0-1-1 |
| Goals for-against | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
AFC Bournemouth win, our form model vs the market price
The market leans Newcastle United, but the recent form reads it differently: it makes the AFC Bournemouth win a 35 per cent chance, more than the best price allows for. That difference is the value, and it is why 85/40 about AFC Bournemouth catches the eye.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Newcastle United (last 10) | AFC Bournemouth (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Home / away split | 2-2-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| BTTS % | 80% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 6 | 4 | 4-2 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 14 | 1 | 2-3 |
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