Premier League · Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Manchester United v Manchester City, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Both attacks are ticking and neither defence is watertight. BTTS has landed in 60 per cent of Manchester United’s recent matches and 70 per cent of Manchester City’s, with just 4 clean sheets between the sides in that time. 4/9 is a fair price rather than a gift, but the match sets up for it and the leg earns its place.
Manchester United have picked up 1.4 yellow cards a game over their last 7 and Manchester City 1.7 over their last 7, which is 3.1 a match between them. That combined figure falls short of the 3.5 line, so this leg needs a busier game for cards than the recent averages show, and 8/13 prices that in. They commit 10.3 and 9.3 fouls a game respectively, so the referee will be busy either way.
Manchester United have taken 5.4 corners a game across their last 7 and Manchester City 4.4 across their last 7, so the two sides bring about 9.9 a match between them. Under 10.5 sits just above that figure, so this needs both sides to stay around their averages. Manchester City’s own count has ranged from 2 to 8 in that spell. At 8/11 it earns its place on the slip.
Manchester City arrive with the stronger recent record: 6 wins from their last 10 in all competitions, while Manchester United have lost 3 of 10. The venue split backs it up: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat on the road. Manchester City saw off Porto 2-0 on Tuesday and bring that momentum here. 11/10 is a fair price rather than a gift, but the match sets up for it and the leg earns its place.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
2026/27 is only 3 game(s) old, so this is a small sample: the last 3 shown, read alongside late-2025/26 form.
Recent form (last 3 matches (2026/27 so far), all competitions)
The record
| Manchester United | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Manchester United home / Manchester City away | 3-1-2 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Manchester United | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 2.33 | 2 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 |
Venue row is Manchester United at home and Manchester City away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Manchester United | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 90% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 67% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 50% | 30% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Manchester United | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 60% | 70% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 |
Last 5 meetings (Manchester United’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Manchester United wins / draws / Manchester City wins | 2-2-1 |
| Goals (Manchester United / Manchester City) | 5 / 5 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.0 |
| Both teams scored | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
2026/27 so far, 3 played
| Manchester United | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11 | 1 |
| Points | 4 | 9 |
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 1-1-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Goals for-against | 7-6 | 7-2 |
| Goal difference | +1 | +5 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Manchester United win, our form model vs the market price
The market makes Manchester City favourites and our form numbers broadly agree; nothing in the 1X2 is mispriced by more than a point or two, so the value hunting happens in the builder markets higher up the page.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Manchester United (last 10) | Manchester City (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Home / away split | 3-1-2 | 3-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| BTTS % | 60% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 11 | 4 | 7-6 |
| Manchester City | 1 | 9 | 7-2 |
18+ only. Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. Always gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply to all offers shown.