Premier League · Saturday 29 August 2026, 12:30 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Liverpool v Nottingham Forest, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest are combining for close to three goals a game between them this season, which leaves plenty of daylight under the 4.5 mark. Lines like this rarely get threatened, and 1/5 is simply the best of what is on offer for it.
Liverpool head into this on the better recent run: 3 wins from their last 10 in all competitions against 5 defeats for Nottingham Forest. At home, Liverpool have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 2, and their most recent outing was a 2-2 draw with Newcastle United on Sunday. 1/2 will not excite anyone chasing a bigger price, but it is the correct read of how this fixture sets up.
Goals have followed both sides around this season. Half of Liverpool’s last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, and half of Nottingham Forest’s did too, with the pair averaging 3.0 goals a match between them. 8/13 looks a fair reflection of that, rather than a price with anything spare in it, and this leg is picked for the way the game tends to open up, not for the scoreline.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
2026/27 is only 1 game(s) old, so this is a small sample: the last 1 shown, read alongside late-2025/26 form.
Recent form (last 1 matches (2026/27 so far), all competitions)
The record
| Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Liverpool home / Nottingham Forest away | 3-3-2 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.30 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 1.63 | 1.2 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 1.38 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 |
Venue row is Liverpool at home and Nottingham Forest away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 38% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 50% | 20% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 70% | 50% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 63% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 |
Last 5 meetings (Liverpool’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Liverpool wins / draws / Nottingham Forest wins | 2-1-2 |
| Goals (Liverpool / Nottingham Forest) | 3 / 5 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 1.6 |
| Both teams scored | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% |
2026/27 so far, 1 played
| Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11 | 15 |
| Points | 1 | 0 |
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 0-1-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Goals for-against | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Goal difference | +0 | -1 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Nottingham Forest win, our form model vs the market price
The market leans Liverpool, but the recent form reads it differently: it makes the Nottingham Forest win a 35 per cent chance, more than the best price allows for. That difference is the value, and it is why 11/2 about Nottingham Forest catches the eye.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Liverpool (last 10) | Nottingham Forest (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Home / away split | 3-3-2 | 1-1-3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| BTTS % | 70% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 11 | 1 | 2-2 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15 | 0 | 0-1 |
18+ only. Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. Always gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply to all offers shown.