Everton's European push is hanging by a thread after a five-match winless run, and the Toffees have managed just two home wins at the Hill Dickinson Stadium since Christmas.
Sunderland sit 12th on 48 points and have become awkward visitors, with two of their last three wins coming on the road including March's victory at Newcastle.
The only Premier League meeting between the sides this season finished 1-1, in line with both clubs' 78 per cent scoring rates and a league BTTS rate of 55 per cent.
Our AI Predictions for the Match Between Everton and Sunderland
To provide the most comprehensive betting insights, we have leveraged the analytical power of three leading AI models: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT. Each AI has processed the available data to offer a distinct prediction on a key market for this match. Their conclusions are presented clearly below, and you can click on any prediction to reveal the detailed reasoning behind their data-driven analysis.
Match Details:
Teams: Everton vs Sunderland
League: Premier League
Date: 17 May 2026 at 3:00 PM
Stage: Premier League
ChatGPT
Prediction of AI ChatGPT modelMatch Result – Sunderland to Win
Sunderland priced at 16/5 implies just under 24 per cent, yet the market backdrop favours an upset case. Everton are on a five-match winless run with only two home wins since Christmas, while Sunderland have collected two of their last three wins on the road including the March win at Newcastle. The bookmakers look to be pricing this as a routine home outing for Everton when the underlying numbers point the other way.
claude
Prediction of AI claude modelMatch Result and BTTS – Draw and Yes
Both clubs sit on a 78 per cent scoring rate and the only Premier League meeting between the sides this season finished 1-1. Everton’s form has stalled with five matches without a win and just two home wins since Christmas, while Sunderland’s away record gives the visitors a credible base, so a draw with both teams getting on the scoresheet, the same shape as the November meeting, is the form-driven angle at 4/1.
The only Premier League meeting between these clubs this season finished 1-1 at the Stadium of Light, and the headline projection of 1-1 at 13/2 lines up neatly with that history. Average goals across the H2H sample sit at 2, both sides find the net in roughly 78 per cent of their matches, and Sunderland’s road wins this season have arrived in tight, low-scoring patterns, all of which point at the exact 1-1 outcome as the H2H-led play.
The Draw at 11/4 with Betfred is the bet I want as Everton host Sunderland in a game neither side can afford to lose, but neither looks built to win comfortably. Everton’s home form has tailed off badly since Christmas, with only two league wins at the Hill Dickinson Stadium since the turn of the year and a five-match winless run weakening their European push. Sunderland, meanwhile, have travelled well, taking two of their last three wins on the road, including that famous March victory at Newcastle. The price lines up with this season’s sole H2H meeting and the 1-1 scoreline projected by the match facts. Everton are still being priced short at home, but their habit of dropping points at the new ground tells a different story.
Value Bets from Our Algorithm
Our value bets are generated by combining insights from advanced research models with key football data points. The algorithm looks beyond simple win-draw-lose outcomes and weighs factors such as recent form, head-to-head records, expected goals (xG), injury news, home and away performance trends, and market odds movement. This data-driven approach identifies betting opportunities where the odds may undervalue the true probability of an outcome.
Ndiaye has six league goals from 30 appearances at a 7.1 average match rating, and our model rates his scoring chance at 30 per cent against the 28 per cent implied at 13/5, a thin edge that lines up with his expanded role on Everton’s left with Grealish out.
The 1X2 prices Sunderland at 24 per cent implied for the win but our model puts them at 30 per cent given Everton’s collapsed home form, and the DNB version at 2/1 refunds on the draw which trims the volatility while keeping a fair edge.
The single Premier League meeting between the sides this season finished 1-1 and the match-facts projection points to the same scoreline, with our model rating the exact result at 15 per cent against the 13 per cent implied at 13/2 for a slight but consistent edge.
Two of Sunderland’s last three wins came on the road by tight margins and our model puts their probability of winning by exactly one goal at 21 per cent against the 18 per cent implied at 9/2, a thin lean that pairs with the broader Sunderland-or-draw stance.
Player Focus Bets
Based on recent form and historical data, our top picks for the Anytime Goalscorer market in this match between Everton and Sunderland:
Beto (Everton) – Beto leads the line for Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium and takes on the lone striker role with Jack Grealish ruled out. Even in a side managing just two home wins since Christmas, the Portuguese remains the natural focal point of every chance Everton create and rates as the team’s most likely route to a goal in a fixture the market expects to keep tight.
Brian Brobbey (Sunderland) – Brobbey has six goals from 29 appearances this season at a 6.4 average match rating, leading the Sunderland line as the visitors’ primary scoring threat. With Bertrand Traoré ruled out and Sunderland scoring in 78 per cent of their road fixtures, Brobbey priced at 5/2 with Midnite stands as the most likely Sunderland scorer if the away side find a way past Jordan Pickford.
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09 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland0 : 0Manchester United
02 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueWolverhampton Wanderers1 : 1Sunderland
24 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland0 : 5Nottingham Forest
19 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueAston Villa4 : 3Sunderland
12 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland1 : 0Tottenham Hotspur
22 Mar 2026 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United1 : 2Sunderland
WINS1
DRAW1
LOSSES4
Average Stats (Last 6 Matches)
12 Total goals
17% BTTS
2 Goals scored
10 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5
09 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland0 : 0Manchester United
24 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland0 : 5Nottingham Forest
12 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland1 : 0Tottenham Hotspur
14 Mar 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland0 : 1Brighton & Hove Albion
22 Feb 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland1 : 3Fulham
11 Feb 2026 –
Premier LeagueSunderland0 : 1Liverpool
WINS2
DRAW2
LOSSES2
Average Stats (Last 8 Matches)
16 Total goals
50% BTTS
8 Goals scored
8 Goals conceded
25% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5
02 May 2026 –
Premier LeagueWolverhampton Wanderers1 : 1Sunderland
19 Apr 2026 –
Premier LeagueAston Villa4 : 3Sunderland
22 Mar 2026 –
Premier LeagueNewcastle United1 : 2Sunderland
08 Mar 2026 –
FA CupPort Vale1 : 0Sunderland
03 Mar 2026 –
Premier LeagueLeeds United0 : 1Sunderland
28 Feb 2026 –
Premier LeagueAFC Bournemouth1 : 1Sunderland
Sunderland
Starting XI
Starting XI
4-2-3-1
Possible Lineup
22Robin Roefs
17 Reinildo
20Nordi Mukiele
15Omar Alderete
6Lutsharel Geertruida
34Granit Xhaka
27Noah Sadiki
7Chemsdine Talbi
32Trai Hume
28Enzo Le Fee
9Brian Brobbey
Note: Official lineups are typically confirmed 60 minutes before kick-off. These predictions are based on the latest team news and recent selections.
Everton vs Sunderland Head-to-Head Record
10 Jan 2026 –
FA CupEverton1 : 1Sunderland
03 Nov 2025 –
Premier LeagueSunderland1 : 1Everton
20 Sep 2017 –
EFL CupEverton3 : 0Sunderland
25 Feb 2017 –
Premier LeagueEverton2 : 0Sunderland
League Games at Everton
Everton
Sunderland
Goals: Scored61
Games: Scored3/31/3
Clean Sheets2/30/3
League Games at Sunderland
Everton
Sunderland
Goals: Scored11
Games: Scored1/11/1
Clean Sheets0/10/1
Current Best Betting Odds for Everton vs Sunderland
When it comes to betting on this Premier League fixture, getting the best odds can make all the difference to your returns. Below, we’ve compared the top prices available from trusted betting sites for the upcoming clash between Everton and Sunderland.
For those looking beyond the obvious outcomes in their football betting predictions, we’ve highlighted a few long shot bets for the Everton vs Sunderland clash. These are higher-risk selections that carry a lower probability of success, but offer the potential for significantly greater odds.
Everton vs Sunderland Long-Shot Betting
Bet Type
Selection
Odds
Rationale
Long-Shot Bet 1
Sunderland to Win to Nil
7/1 (Bet365)
Sunderland winning without conceding requires both attacking prowess and defensive solidity. A clean sheet adds difficulty but increases the reward significantly. At 7/1, the potential returns justify the risk.
Long-Shot Bet 2
Sunderland (-1)
9/1 (Bet365)
This handicap requires Sunderland to win by more than 1 goal. It's a bold prediction that rewards those expecting a dominant performance. At 9/1, the potential returns justify the risk.
Long-Shot Bet 3
Over 5.5 Total Goals
10/1 (Coral)
Over 5.5 goals requires a high-scoring affair with at least 6 goals. Both sides' attacking intent and this fixture's history of entertainment make this worth consideration. At 10/1, the potential returns justify the risk.
Bet Builder Suggestions
If you really want to see a return, Bet Builders are a great way to combine different markets into one high-odds selection. These are risky, but when they land, the payout can be massive.
Here are some long-shot Bet Builder ideas for the Everton vs Sunderland clash:
Aggressive Sunderland-led angle: Sunderland to win, Brian Brobbey anytime scorer and both teams to score (combined around 15/1). Backs the road upset with an attacking layer.
Goals-and-draw hybrid: Draw, both teams to score and over 1.5 goals (combined around 8/1). Mirrors the 1-1 H2H result with a wider goals net.
Tight-match angle: Under 3.5 goals, both teams to score and Iliman Ndiaye anytime scorer (combined around 9/1). Sticks with the low-scoring read while pricing in Everton’s main attacking outlet.
Quick Betting Angles
These Quick Betting Angles cut through the noise and turn stats into actionable insights for Everton vs Sunderland on 17 May 2026 at 3:00 PM.
Betting Angle (Both Teams to Score): Both teams to score has landed in the only Premier League meeting between the sides this season, a 1-1 result in November, and both clubs hold a 78 per cent scoring rate. The Match Result and BTTS combo of Draw and Yes at 4/1 with Midnite captures the most likely shape of the match, with the implied 20 per cent sitting in the right area for a 1-1 or 2-2 result.
Betting Angle (Total Goals): The match-facts projection points to 1-1 and the H2H average sits at exactly 2 goals per game, with Everton scoring 1.26 a match at home and Sunderland 1.05 on the road. With under 2.5 already discounted from the offered prices, the Correct Score 1-1 at 13/2 with Betfred is the most direct way to lean into the low-scoring read.
Betting Angle (Home Advantage): Everton’s home advantage has all but vanished in 2026, with just two league wins at the Hill Dickinson Stadium since Christmas and only 1.3 points per home game across the season. Sunderland’s 1.0 away PPG closes the gap further, and the Draw at 11/4 with Betfred has a stronger case than the short-priced home win.
Match Information:
Competition: Premier League
Stage: Premier League
Kick-off: 17 May 2026 at 3:00 PM
Sport: Soccer
Where to Watch Everton vs Sunderland
TV channel:
The game will be shown on Sky Sports Premier League
Online streaming:
The game will be streamed via the Sky Sports app.
Free highlights:
The game highlights will be shown on Match of the Day on Sunday night on BBC One.
