Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Under 4.5 goals is the anchor leg. Chelsea and Brighton and Hove Albion have combined for 3.9 goals a game between them recently (2.3 for Chelsea, 1.6 for Brighton and Hove Albion), so there’s room to spare under the line even on an open afternoon. It’s a price-driven pick rather than a stats-driven one, and 1/5 is simply the best of what’s on offer.
Goals follow both of these sides around. Chelsea have gone over 2.5 in 80 per cent of their last 10, Brighton and Hove Albion in 60 per cent of theirs, and between them the pair are averaging 3.9 goals a match. That form makes 8/11 look bigger than it should be.
Brighton and Hove Albion and Chelsea are level on paper: both have gone 5-2-3 in their last 10 matches, so form alone doesn’t split them. History at this fixture does. Brighton and Hove Albion have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two, and they go into this one full of confidence, having beaten Aston Villa 4-0 on Sunday. Chelsea’s home record (4-0-2) is their strongest card, but Brighton and Hove Albion’s head-to-head record here trumps it. 3/1 reads a shade generous against that history, which is exactly what we want from a builder leg.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
2026/27 is only 1 game(s) old, so this is a small sample: the last 1 shown, read alongside late-2025/26 form.
Recent form (last 1 matches (2026/27 so far), all competitions)
The record
| Chelsea | Brighton and Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Chelsea home / Brighton and Hove Albion away | 4-0-2 | 0-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.70 | 1.70 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Chelsea | Brighton and Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 2.5 | 0.25 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.7 | 1 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 1.5 | 1 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 |
Venue row is Chelsea at home and Brighton and Hove Albion away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Chelsea | Brighton and Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 90% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 83% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 40% | 30% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Chelsea | Brighton and Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 80% | 20% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 67% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 |
Last 5 meetings (Chelsea’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Chelsea wins / draws / Brighton and Hove Albion wins | 1-0-4 |
| Goals (Chelsea / Brighton and Hove Albion) | 6 / 13 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 3.8 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% |
2026/27 so far, 1 played
| Chelsea | Brighton and Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6 | 1 |
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Goals for-against | 3-2 | 4-0 |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Brighton and Hove Albion win, our form model vs the market price
The market leans Chelsea, but the recent form reads it differently: it makes the Brighton and Hove Albion win a 40 per cent chance, more than the best price allows for. That difference is the value, and it is why 3/1 on the away win leads the bet builder higher up the page.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Chelsea (last 10) | Brighton and Hove Albion (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Home / away split | 4-0-2 | 0-2-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.7 | 1 |
| BTTS % | 80% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 6 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 3-2 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 3 | 4-0 |
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