Chelsea vs Arsenal Betting Tips & Predictions

EFL Cup 14 January 2026 at 8:00 PM
Chelsea
Top tip Both Teams to Score
Arsenal
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  • EFL Cup Semi-Final: Chelsea and Arsenal face off in the first leg of the League Cup semi-finals, both eager for silverware this season.
  • Tactical Battle: Arsenal have been dominant in recent meetings, but Chelsea's home advantage and key player returns could make this a close contest.
  • Momentum at Stake: Both teams are in good form, with a win crucial for setting up the second leg and keeping their trophy hopes alive.

Our AI Predictions for the Match Between Chelsea and Arsenal

To provide the clearest possible betting insights, we have analysed predictions from three top AI models: ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. Each model offers a distinct prediction on the match, presented as a straightforward bullet point with its logo for easy identification. For a deeper understanding, you can expand each tip to read the detailed reasoning that explains how the AI used data, form, and match statistics to arrive at its conclusion.

Prediction of AI ChatGPT modelBoth Teams to Score
Odds for This Bet 8/117/107/10
BTTS is favoured here due to the attacking talent on both sides and the defensive vulnerabilities exposed by injuries and suspensions in both camps. Chelsea’s frontline options (Palmer, Neto, Delap) can test Arsenal, while Gyokeres, Saka and Martin Odegaard provide Arsenal with substantial goal threat. The fixture format (cup semi-final first leg) encourages open, high-tempo football, supporting a BTTS return.
Prediction of AI claude modelArsenal to Win
Odds for This Bet 127/1005/459/50
Claude prioritises markets that favour Arsenal’s superior squad depth and recent form. Arsenal’s record at Stamford Bridge and their lack of suspensions compared to Chelsea’s missing Caicedo underpin the away win pick. With Gyokeres leading the line and Martinelli in blistering form, Arsenal possess greater attacking quality for this semi-final first leg.
Prediction of AI Gemini modelOver 2.5 Goals
Odds for This Bet 9/109/1017/20
Gemini prioritises the Over/Under market where value is clear. Both Chelsea and Arsenal possess significant attacking talent, with Martinelli in top form for Arsenal and Palmer leading Chelsea’s threats. Defensive concerns for both sides suggest a high-scoring encounter.
Summary and Final Prediction
Leon Marshall Chief Editor at
Last updated: January 13, 2026
Why we chose the prediction we did from the options that were available to us?

I’ve picked Both Teams to Score for this match because both Chelsea and Arsenal have been strong in attack. Chelsea have scored in 90% of their games, particularly at home, so I expect them to find the net here. Arsenal have also been consistent going forward, scoring in 86% of their away matches, including against tough opposition. Both teams have defensive weaknesses too, with Arsenal conceding in 50% of their away games, which makes me confident that both sides will get on the scoresheet in this one.

Value Bets from Our Algorithm

Our value bets are identified by an algorithm that synthesises data from advanced research models and crucial football metrics. This system analyses more than just the final result, considering factors like recent performance, head-to-head history, expected goals (xG), team news, and home/away form. By comparing these statistical probabilities against market odds, it pinpoints bets that offer genuine value.

Bet 1
  • Match Result — Away Win
  • Probability: 44%
  • Best Odds: 127/100 (2.27) at NetBet
  • Arsenal’s superior squad depth and Chelsea’s key suspensions in midfield give the visitors the edge in this first leg.
Bet 2
  • Both Teams to Score — Our model leans towards Yes.
  • Probability: 71%
  • Best Odds: 8/11 (1.727) at Ladbrokes
  • Both sides boast potent attacking lineups but have defensive vulnerabilities, making it highly likely that each team will score.
Bet 3
  • Over 2.5 Goals
  • Probability: 66%
  • Best Odds: 9/10 (1.9) at bet365
  • With attacking talent like Palmer for Chelsea and Martinelli and Gyokeres for Arsenal, a high-scoring game with over 2.5 goals is expected.
Bet 4
  • Double Chance — Arsenal or Draw
  • Probability: 72%
  • Best Odds: 4/11 (1.364) at Ladbrokes
  • Given Chelsea’s personnel issues and Arsenal’s strong form, the Gunners are strongly fancied to avoid defeat at Stamford Bridge.

Player Focus Bets

Based on recent form and historical data, our top picks for the Anytime Goalscorer market in this match between Chelsea and Arsenal:

  • Pedro Neto is a strong candidate for the anytime goalscorer market due to his consistent attacking threat and impressive scoring record. With 5 goals in 19 Premier League appearances this season and a solid average of 1.6 shots per game, he’s proven to be a key contributor for Chelsea in the final third. His ability to play across various attacking positions increases his chances of finding the net, and his high shooting accuracy (84.6%) makes him a reliable option when presented with opportunities. With the right service in this game, Neto is likely to be involved in the scoring.(Chelsea)
  • Viktor Gyökeres is worth considering in the anytime goalscorer market due to his consistent attacking contributions across multiple competitions. With 5 goals in the Premier League alone and an average of 1.6 shots per game, he’s a regular threat in front of goal. His shooting accuracy of 61.8% reflects his ability to convert chances, and with his positioning and involvement in key areas of attack, he’s well-placed to find the back of the net when given the opportunity in this fixture. (Arsenal)

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Chelsea Form and Stats

Last MatchesChelsea
           
WINS 1
DRAW 3
LOSSES 2
Average Stats (Last 14 Matches)
  • 42 Total goals
  • 71% BTTS
  • 25 Goals scored
  • 17 Goals conceded
  • 64% Over 2.5
  • 36% Under 2.5
  • 10 Jan 2026 – FA Cup Charlton Athletic1 : 5Chelsea
  • 07 Jan 2026 – Premier League Fulham2 : 1Chelsea
  • 04 Jan 2026 – Premier League Manchester City1 : 1Chelsea
  • 30 Dec 2025 – Premier League Chelsea2 : 2AFC Bournemouth
  • 27 Dec 2025 – Premier League Chelsea1 : 2Aston Villa
  • 20 Dec 2025 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 2Chelsea
         
WINS 2
DRAW 2
LOSSES 1
Average Stats (Last 5 Matches)
  • 14 Total goals
  • 60% BTTS
  • 9 Goals scored
  • 5 Goals conceded
  • 60% Over 2.5
  • 40% Under 2.5
  • 30 Dec 2025 – Premier League Chelsea2 : 2AFC Bournemouth
  • 27 Dec 2025 – Premier League Chelsea1 : 2Aston Villa
  • 13 Dec 2025 – Premier League Chelsea2 : 0Everton
  • 30 Nov 2025 – Premier League Chelsea1 : 1Arsenal
  • 25 Nov 2025 – Champions League Chelsea3 : 0Barcelona
           
WINS 2
DRAW 2
LOSSES 2
Average Stats (Last 9 Matches)
  • 22 Total goals
  • 67% BTTS
  • 13 Goals scored
  • 9 Goals conceded
  • 56% Over 2.5
  • 11% Under 2.5
  • 10 Jan 2026 – FA Cup Charlton Athletic1 : 5Chelsea
  • 07 Jan 2026 – Premier League Fulham2 : 1Chelsea
  • 04 Jan 2026 – Premier League Manchester City1 : 1Chelsea
  • 20 Dec 2025 – Premier League Newcastle United2 : 2Chelsea
  • 16 Dec 2025 – EFL Cup Cardiff City1 : 3Chelsea
  • 09 Dec 2025 – Champions League Atalanta2 : 1Chelsea

Starting XI

4-2-3-1

Possible
Lineup
1 Robert Sanchez
3 Marc Cucurella
29 Wesley Fofana
23 Trevoh Chalobah
24 Reece James
17 Andrey Santos
25 Moises Caicedo
7 Pedro Neto
8 Enzo Fernandez
10 Cole Palmer
9 Liam Delap
Substitutes
  • 12Filip Jorgensen
  • 5Benoit Badiashile
  • 4Tosin Adarabioyo
  • 21Jorrel Hato
  • 41Estevao
  • 11Jamie Gittens
  • 40Facundo Buonanotte
  • 49Alejandro Garnacho
  • 20Joao Pedro
Suspension
  • 1Mykhailo Mudryk
Injured
  • 1Levi Colwill Knee Injury
  • 2Romeo Lavia Thigh Injury
  • 3Dario Essugo Thigh Injury

Note: Official lineups are typically confirmed 60 minutes before kick-off. These predictions are based on the latest team news and recent selections.

Arsenal Form and Stats

Last MatchesArsenal
           
WINS 5
DRAW 1
LOSSES 0
Average Stats (Last 14 Matches)
  • 58 Total goals
  • 71% BTTS
  • 39 Goals scored
  • 19 Goals conceded
  • 71% Over 2.5
  • 29% Under 2.5
  • 11 Jan 2026 – FA Cup Portsmouth1 : 4Arsenal
  • 08 Jan 2026 – Premier League Arsenal0 : 0Liverpool
  • 03 Jan 2026 – Premier League AFC Bournemouth2 : 3Arsenal
  • 30 Dec 2025 – Premier League Arsenal4 : 1Aston Villa
  • 27 Dec 2025 – Premier League Arsenal2 : 1Brighton & Hove Albion
  • 23 Dec 2025 – EFL Cup Arsenal9 : 8Crystal Palace
           
WINS 5
DRAW 1
LOSSES 0
Average Stats (Last 8 Matches)
  • 30 Total goals
  • 50% BTTS
  • 19 Goals scored
  • 11 Goals conceded
  • 50% Over 2.5
  • 25% Under 2.5
  • 08 Jan 2026 – Premier League Arsenal0 : 0Liverpool
  • 30 Dec 2025 – Premier League Arsenal4 : 1Aston Villa
  • 27 Dec 2025 – Premier League Arsenal2 : 1Brighton & Hove Albion
  • 23 Dec 2025 – EFL Cup Arsenal9 : 8Crystal Palace
  • 13 Dec 2025 – Premier League Arsenal2 : 1Wolverhampton Wanderers
  • 03 Dec 2025 – Premier League Arsenal2 : 0Brentford
           
WINS 4
DRAW 1
LOSSES 1
Average Stats (Last 6 Matches)
  • 19 Total goals
  • 67% BTTS
  • 13 Goals scored
  • 6 Goals conceded
  • 67% Over 2.5
  • 33% Under 2.5
  • 11 Jan 2026 – FA Cup Portsmouth1 : 4Arsenal
  • 03 Jan 2026 – Premier League AFC Bournemouth2 : 3Arsenal
  • 20 Dec 2025 – Premier League Everton0 : 1Arsenal
  • 10 Dec 2025 – Champions League Club Brugge0 : 3Arsenal
  • 06 Dec 2025 – Premier League Aston Villa2 : 1Arsenal
  • 30 Nov 2025 – Premier League Chelsea1 : 1Arsenal

Starting XI

4-3-3

Possible
Lineup
1 David Raya
49 Myles Lewis-Skelly
6 Gabriel Magalhães
2 William Saliba
12 Jurrien Timber
41 Declan Rice
36 Martín Zubimendi
8 Martin Ødegaard
19 Leandro Trossard
14 Viktor Gyökeres
7 Bukayo Saka
Substitutes
  • 13Kepa Arrizabalaga
  • 4Ben White
  • 16Christian Nørgaard
  • 23Mikel Merino
  • 10Eberechi Eze
  • 11Gabriel Martinelli
  • 9Gabriel Jesus
  • 20Noni Madueke
  • 29Kai Havertz
Suspension
  • None reported
Injured
  • 1Piero Hincapie Reyna Thigh Injury
  • 2Max Dowman Ankle/Foot Injury
  • 3Riccardo Calafiori Questionable
  • 4Cristhian Ibarguen Questionable

Note: Official lineups are typically confirmed 60 minutes before kick-off. These predictions are based on the latest team news and recent selections.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Head-to-Head Record

  • 30 Nov 2025 – Premier League Chelsea 1 : 1 Arsenal
  • 16 Mar 2025 – Premier League Arsenal 1 : 0 Chelsea
  • 10 Nov 2024 – Premier League Chelsea 1 : 1 Arsenal
  • 23 Apr 2024 – Premier League Arsenal 5 : 0 Chelsea
  • 21 Oct 2023 – Premier League Chelsea 2 : 2 Arsenal
  • 02 May 2023 – Premier League Arsenal 3 : 1 Chelsea
  • 06 Nov 2022 – Premier League Chelsea 0 : 1 Arsenal
  • 24 Jul 2022 – Club Friendlies Arsenal 0 : 4 Chelsea
  • 20 Apr 2022 – Premier League Chelsea 2 : 4 Arsenal
League Games at Chelsea
  • Chelsea
  • Arsenal
  • Goals: Scored 6 9
  • Games: Scored 4/5 5/5
  • Clean Sheets 0/5 1/5
League Games at Arsenal
  • Chelsea
  • Arsenal
  • Goals: Scored 5 9
  • Games: Scored 4/4 3/4
  • Clean Sheets 1/4 2/4

Current Best Betting Odds for Chelsea vs Arsenal

When it comes to betting on this EFL Cup fixture, getting the best odds can make all the difference to your returns. Below, we’ve compared the top prices available from trusted betting sites for the upcoming clash between Chelsea and Arsenal.

Chelsea vs Arsenal
Bookmaker1X2Visit Site
NetBet
5/5
Home 37/20
Draw 9/4
Away 127/100
Visit Site
Coral
5/5
Home 19/10
Draw 12/5
Away 137/100
Visit Site
Bet365
5/5
Home 9/4
Draw 12/5
Away 23/20
Visit Site
10bet
5/5
Home 49/20
Draw 12/5
Away 59/50
Visit Site
Ladbrokes
5/5
Home 21/10
Draw 12/5
Away 5/4
Visit Site

Chelsea vs Arsenal Long-Shot Betting

For those looking beyond the obvious outcomes in their football betting predictions, we’ve highlighted a few long shot bets for the Chelsea vs Arsenal clash. These are higher-risk selections that carry a lower probability of success, but offer the potential for significantly greater odds.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Long-Shot Betting
Bet TypeSelectionOddsRationale
Long-Shot Bet 1Over 12.5 Corners11/2 (Ladbrokes)With both teams likely to press high and create chances, a high corner count is possible. Over 12.5 corners offers value for those expecting an attack-minded match with sustained pressure. At 11/2, the potential returns justify the risk.
Long-Shot Bet 2Correct Score: 3-233/1 (Bet365)This 3-2 scoreline predicting a Chelsea victory offers excellent long-shot value. With 5 total goals, it reflects an open, attacking contest. The odds provide substantial returns if both teams' recent scoring form translates into this specific outcome. At 33/1, the potential returns justify the risk.
Long-Shot Bet 3Chelsea to Score First6/5 (Bet365)Backing Chelsea to open the scoring offers value if they start the match on the front foot. Early goals can shift momentum and this selection rewards those anticipating an aggressive start. At 6/5, the potential returns justify the risk.

Bet Builder Suggestions

If you really want to see a return, Bet Builders are a great way to combine different markets into one high-odds selection. These are risky, but when they land, the payout can be massive.

Here are some long-shot Bet Builder ideas for the Chelsea vs Arsenal clash:

  • Chelsea to Win + Over 2.5 Goals + Both Teams to Score (Combined odds: 15/2)
  • Arsenal to Score First + Chelsea to Win + Over 3.5 Goals (Combined odds: 11/1)
  • Draw at Half-Time + Chelsea to Win + BTTS (Combined odds: 14/1)

Quick Betting Angles

These Quick Betting Angles cut through the noise and turn stats into actionable insights for Chelsea vs Arsenal on 14 January 2026 at 8:00 PM.

  1. Betting Angle (Both Teams to Score): Both Teams to Score looks like a solid angle here given how regularly both sides are finding the net and the fact neither defence has been watertight in recent matches. With Chelsea scoring in the majority of home games and Arsenal carrying a strong attacking threat on the road, goals at both ends feel more likely than a one-sided outcome.
  2. Betting Angle (Total Goals): The Total Goals market leans towards Over 2.5 given both teams’ attacking form and recent high-scoring games. Chelsea and Arsenal have been involved in matches with plenty of goals, and with both sides capable of scoring multiple times, it’s hard to see this one staying under 2.5, especially with the attacking talent on display.
  3. Betting Angle (Home Advantage): Home advantage is likely to play a role, as Chelsea have shown strong results at Stamford Bridge, winning several key fixtures in front of their fans. However, they have also had mixed results at home this season, suggesting that while the crowd can be a boost, Arsenal’s quality on the road could still pose a significant challenge.

Where to Watch Chelsea vs Arsenal

TV channel:

The Chelsea vs Arsenal League Cup Semi-Final First Leg will be shown on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football.

Online streaming:

Highlights will be available on the official League Cup YouTube channels, ITV and Sky and sports news platforms shortly after full-time.

Free highlights:

Highlights are usually available on official league channels and sports news platforms shortly after full-time.