Premier League · Saturday 19 September 2026, 15:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
The 4.5-goals line, taken on the day’s prices. A judgement call on the day rather than a stats one, and 1/5 is the pick of the prices.
Arsenal arrive with the stronger recent record: 4 wins from their last 4 in all competitions, while Brighton and Hove Albion have lost 1 of 4. The venue split backs it up: 2 wins, no draws and no defeats on the road. Arsenal have won 3 of the last 5 meetings too. The freshest evidence favours Arsenal: Sunderland beaten 2-0 on Saturday. The market is underrating this one; at 8/11 the price is bigger than the form warrants.
Goals follow both of these sides around. 75 per cent of Brighton and Hove Albion’s last 4 went over 2.5 and 50 per cent of Arsenal’s did the same, with the pair averaging 5.2 goals a match between them. 8/11 reads a shade generous against the recent record, which is exactly what we want from a builder leg.
One clean sheet looks likelier than none here. BTTS has missed in 50 per cent of Brighton and Hove Albion’s last 4 and 75 per cent of Arsenal’s, and the sides have drawn a blank 0 times between them in the window. The recent numbers have this landing more often than 11/10 allows for, and that margin is why the leg is here.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
2026/27 is only 4 game(s) old, so this is a small sample: the last 4 shown, read alongside late-2025/26 form.
Recent form (last 4 matches (2026/27 so far), all competitions)
The record
| Brighton and Hove Albion | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 2-1-1 | 4-0-0 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion home / Arsenal away | 1-1-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 3.00 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Brighton and Hove Albion | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 3.25 | 2 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 0.5 | 0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
Venue row is Brighton and Hove Albion at home and Arsenal away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Brighton and Hove Albion | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 100% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 50% | 0% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 75% | 0% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Brighton and Hove Albion | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 50% | 25% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
Last 5 meetings (Brighton and Hove Albion’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion wins / draws / Arsenal wins | 1-2-2 |
| Goals (Brighton and Hove Albion / Arsenal) | 4 / 6 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 2.0 |
| Both teams scored | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% |
2026/27 so far, 4 played
| Brighton and Hove Albion | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5 | 1 |
| Points | 7 | 12 |
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 2-1-1 | 4-0-0 |
| Goals for-against | 13-5 | 8-1 |
| Goal difference | +8 | +7 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
Arsenal win, our form model vs the market price
The market leans Arsenal, but the recent form reads it differently: it makes the Arsenal win a 62 per cent chance, more than the best price allows for. That difference is the value, and it is why 8/11 on the away win leads the bet builder higher up the page.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Brighton and Hove Albion (last 4) | Arsenal (last 4) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 2-1-1 | 4-0-0 |
| Home / away split | 1-1-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 3.25 | 2 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| BTTS % | 50% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 7 | 13-5 |
| Arsenal | 1 | 12 | 8-1 |
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