World Cup Last 16, Tour de France, F1 & July Cup: England Conquer the Azteca

ODDS-ON WITH ADRIAN & ROY: EPISODE 4
World Cup 2026: Last-16 Reaction, plus the Tour de France, F1 & the July Cup
Recorded Mon 6 July 2026 | Hosts: Roy Brindley & Adrian Dane | bestbettingsites.co.uk

Roy: Hello and welcome to the Odds-On podcast, brought to you by bestbettingsites.co.uk. A reminder that this presentation is for listeners aged 18 and over, and please always gamble responsibly. If you think you may have issues or problems with your gambling, please do visit GambleAware.org. Okay. This week on the Odds-On podcast we’ll look at the ongoing Tour de France, the state of Formula 1 following a dramatic British Grand Prix, and an intriguing Group 1 sprint, the July Cup at Newmarket this weekend, for the horse racing fans. But first, let’s head over to my good friend Adrian Dane, who’s going to talk all things World Cup, which, fair to say, is warming up quite nicely. Adrian, it’s over to you.

AD: If you’re an England fan, you already know exactly where you were for this one. The Azteca. Two thousand metres up, in a stadium Mexico had never lost a World Cup game at, and England won it, three-two. Before I go a step further: this is a betting show, it’s strictly eighteen-plus, and it’s made by Best Betting Sites. More on that in a moment. But first, the night.

AD: Jude Bellingham scored twice in ninety-eight seconds: a brace inside two minutes, thirty-six and thirty-seven on the clock, the best kind of blur. Harry Kane rolled in a penalty on the hour and teed up Bellingham’s second. And then England made it hard on themselves: Jarell Quansah sent off on fifty-four, and eleven became ten. Forty minutes, a man down, at altitude, in that noise, and they held on. “We stuck together until the last second,” said Bellingham. That is how you make heroes.

AD: And here’s the thing: England weren’t even the biggest shock of the weekend. Because while they were making history, the holders of all that history were falling. Brazil are out. Five-time winners, tournament favourites just two rounds ago, beaten one-two by Norway and Erling Haaland in the last sixteen. And they join a pile: Germany went home to Paraguay, the Netherlands to Morocco, and now the Seleção to Norway. Three of the pre-tournament top six, gone.

AD: We skipped a week, so there are two rounds to catch up on. Let’s do it fast: the damage first, then the bets. First, the housekeeping I promised. This show is made by Best Betting Sites, bestbettingsites-dot-co-dot-uk, and yes, if you sign up to a bookmaker through one of our links, we may earn a commission. That’s how the show is paid for. It also means I’ve no reason to sell you a loser: the only thing that keeps you coming back is me being right, or being honest when I’m wrong. So let’s be both.

AD: The round of thirty-two is finished, all sixteen ties, and the last six all landed. So, I’ll be honest, did most of our calls. We said Spain to win to nil off three clean sheets; they beat Austria three-nil and made it four. Spain were four-to-eleven: a tenner returned thirteen-sixty. The anchor, not the value, but it did the job. Portugal beat Croatia two-one: Ronaldo’s first knockout goal for them, a late VAR reprieve, and Luka Modric sent home. Four-to-five, eighteen quid back off a tenner. Switzerland, two-nil past Algeria: another clean sheet, the solidity play at eleven-to-ten. And Colombia, one-nil over Ghana: win and under, both landed, exactly the shape we called at four-to-seven.

AD: Then the two big stories. Egypt knocked Australia out on penalties: one-one on the night, and Mo Salah, the man whose hamstring was the whole tie, buried a Panenka to settle it. And Argentina? Argentina were nearly the biggest upset in the history of the tournament. Three-two against Cape Verde: the debutants levelled twice, and it took an own goal in the hundred-and-eleventh minute to save them. We told you to shop that Cape Verde price at fourteen-to-one. It very nearly printed. And remember: every price I quote is as of recording.

AD: Now the rest of the last sixteen, and the receipts. We opened on England; here’s what the same round did to your coupon. The big one: Norway two, Brazil one. Brazil were ten-to-eleven favourites, Norway ten-to-three. A tenner on Norway returned forty-four pounds, and Norway have crashed onto the outright board at twenty-one-to-one from nowhere, with Brazil off it completely. England’s win was a betting result too: thirteen-to-eight, twenty-six-forty back off a tenner. Though I’ll be straight with you: we called the Azteca under two-and-a-half, and with five goals, that one lost. You don’t get them all.

AD: And two that went to form: Morocco three-nil against the hosts Canada, Ounahi with a brace, the twenty-twenty-two semi-finalists rolling on at five-to-six; and France one-nil past Paraguay at one-to-five, no fuss. Those returns are receipts: illustrative, in the past, not a tip. Winners and losers both, into the Ledger. Now the four ties still to play, tonight into Tuesday, and this is the bit you’re here for. Prices as of recording, and they will move.

AD: Tonight, eight o’clock: Portugal against Spain. The tie of the round, and here’s the headline: Spain are favourites on the road. Evens, away from home. Portugal ten-to-three, the draw eleven-to-four. Why? Spain have won every game and not conceded a single goal all tournament. Portugal blow hot and cold, but they’ve got the one man who always turns up in these: Ronaldo, who got their first knockout goal last round. The shape I like is Spain’s solidity (a win-to-nil, a low-scoring result) with Ronaldo anytime as the sentiment play if you want a shirt on it. Six-to-one Spain, seventeen-to-one Portugal, for the tournament.

AD: One in the morning: USA against Belgium. As close as the market gets: USA thirteen-to-eight, Belgium fifteen-to-eight, the draw five-to-two. Host momentum against Belgian know-how. But the catch for the USA: Folarin Balogun is suspended, their three-goal man, after his red against Bosnia. In a tie no one can call, the draw-no-bet and the unders make sense.

AD: Five o’clock Tuesday: Argentina against Egypt. Two-to-five Argentina, ten-to-one Egypt. Messi against Salah: the Golden Boot leader against the Panenka hero. But read last week before you pile in at two-to-five: Argentina needed an own goal in the hundred-and-eleventh minute to see off Cape Verde. Egypt are the longest price still standing to win the whole thing (three-hundred-and-fifty-nine to one), and ten-to-one here is a lot of respect. Value hunters will look at Egypt double-chance, or the draw.

AD: And nine o’clock: Switzerland against Colombia. Colombia are the favourites, eleven-to-eight, away; Switzerland eleven-to-four. James Rodriguez is orchestrating an unbeaten run, and the market has Colombia at twenty-six-to-one for the tournament against Switzerland’s ninety-four. Colombia to win, James involved, is the consensus. Would I force it at nine at night, after a full day of favourites? Probably not. But that’s the read.

AD: Two quarter-finals are already locked in, and one of them, for us, is box office. Thursday, eight o’clock: France against Morocco. France eight-to-thirteen, Morocco six-to-one. The two-to-one tournament favourites against the side that keeps finding a way. France are rightly short; Morocco at six-to-one on the night, thirty-five-to-one for the trophy, are your live underdog prices. And Saturday, ten o’clock: this is the one. England, off the Azteca, against Norway. England evens, Norway ten-to-three. And it’s Harry Kane against Erling Haaland: two of the men fighting for the Golden Boot, and only one of them makes the semi-finals. Bookmakers make England a marginal favourite; the anytime-scorer market on both is where all the eyes will be.

AD: So the board, as of this recording. France, two-to-one, and it is theirs to lose on paper. Argentina five-to-one. Spain and England both six-to-one. Portugal seventeen. Norway, in from nowhere, twenty-one. Colombia twenty-six, the USA thirty-three, Morocco thirty-five, Belgium sixty-nine, Switzerland ninety-four, and Egypt right out at three-hundred-and-fifty-nine. The movers tell the story. Norway smashed in after beating Brazil. England shortened from eight-to-one to six off the back of the Azteca. And Brazil and Mexico? Off the board entirely. Twelve teams left, and only one trades shorter than three-to-one. Prices as of recording. This board repriced after every single result, so it will look different by the weekend.

AD: The individual gong, then: the Golden Boot. Lionel Messi leads it, on seven, after his goal against Cape Verde, and at two-to-five to beat Egypt the volume keeps coming. He’s the one to catch. But here’s a number I can now stand up: Harry Kane is on six. That penalty at the Azteca was his sixth of the tournament, and on Saturday he runs straight into Erling Haaland. Think about that: two Golden Boot contenders, one quarter-final, one of them out. The anytime market on both men for that game is where the eyes will be.

AD: Behind them, I’ll be honest about what I can’t yet prove: Haaland’s goal against Brazil and Mbappe’s against Paraguay aren’t in the feed, so I’ll quote their counts when the tape lands, not before. And keep an eye on Jude Bellingham: a brace in ninety-eight seconds against Mexico, and suddenly he’s in the conversation. Salah keeps the outsider’s ticket, though Argentina next is about the toughest draw there is.

AD: So, what to carry out of tonight. England are into a quarter-final off one of the great nights, and Saturday it’s Kane against Haaland: put it in the diary. Spain to nil in the derby if you fancy it. And remember Balogun is suspended for the USA in the small hours. Messi leads the Boot on seven, Kane’s on six. Everything you’ve heard is priced as of recording, so check it before you follow anyone in, me included. We’re back to weekly from here: full quarter-final review next time.

AD: And to close, the important bit. This is an eighteen-plus show. Only ever stake what you can afford to lose, and take your time over it. If gambling has stopped being fun, take a moment: free, confidential help is at GambleAware-dot-org, or the National Gambling Helpline on oh-eight-oh-eight, eight-oh-two-oh, one-three-three. Take time to think. I’ll see you next week.

Roy: Yeah, thank you, Adrian. The Tour de France is ongoing: two stages are in the history books already, both in Spain. This year’s race kicked off with a team time trial: a bit unconventional, because traditionally the fourth-placed rider over the line is the time that counts, but they changed it around this year. And surprisingly it was Jonas Vingegaard who wore the first yellow jersey and kept it into day two. In that team time trial he posted the fastest time of everyone, which was a bit of a shock, and he held it on stage two, a hilly stage won by Isaac del Toro, the very young Mexican rider, gifted it, to be fair, by Tadej Pogačar. The overall betting still sees Pogačar dominate at 2/7 on; his old friend and foe Jonas Vingegaard is 7/2; and Paul Seixas, the teenage sensation, is third favourite at 14/1. Personally I think that’s a ridiculous price. Do you know he’s the youngest Tour de France competitor since 1937? He’s a precocious, outstanding talent with a huge career ahead of him, but right now I don’t think he’s got the tools to make the podium. If I could play one bet in this race, I’d head to the betting exchanges and lay Paul Seixas for a podium finish. Remco Evenepoel (of the Bora-Hansgrohe, now Red Bull, team) is fourth favourite at 20/1, and I think that’s a fair old price, because he was right with the big boys on stage two, crossing the line just behind Pogačar as they gave the win to del Toro. This race will hot up: there are plenty of markets: young rider, King of the Mountains, and so on. The bookmakers think Pogačar is a done deal; I’m not so sure. It concludes on 26 July on the Champs-Élysées, with two visits to Alpe d’Huez this year, and with another time trial still to come I don’t think we’ll truly know the winner until the penultimate stage on 25 July. My bet, as we stand: lay Paul Seixas for a podium on the exchanges. That’s me on the Tour: a slow burner, but a lot of fun. If you’re a cycling fan, do enjoy this year’s race, because it’s red hot.

Roy: Okay, let’s talk British Grand Prix. Did you see the race? A really exciting contest, the most exciting one I can remember in a long time. The weekend started with a sprint that went to Kimi Antonelli, padding out his championship lead, though Lewis Hamilton put up a good fight for much of it. But the race itself… I don’t think many predicted Charles Leclerc would take it. Exciting stuff, sadly finished behind the safety car, and sadly for Kimi Antonelli fans he had a mechanical and failed to score. That’s the second race in three he’s come away empty-handed. Meanwhile his teammate George Russell has racked up a win, a second and a fourth, and is now 25 points adrift, about half the deficit he had after Canada. It’s a fascinating betting event: pre-season Kimi Antonelli was 9/1 for the title, he’s now 8/13, top price with one of our betting partners; George Russell, 2/1 on after the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, is now 3/1 against; and Lewis Hamilton, third favourite, is a top-priced 6/1. Who’d have seen that, after he was mullered by Leclerc last year? Leclerc is 33/1. That’s the top four in the Drivers’ Championship betting. No Formula 1 next week, but the weekend after is Belgium: Spa-Francorchamps, such a power circuit, should suit Mercedes and might be an Achilles heel for Ferrari. Personally I’m waiting for the Hungarian Grand Prix (Monaco without walls, a tight, twisty, old-school track). I think that could put the cat among the pigeons, and I’ll be looking at the Audis to score points. But that’s two weeks off. Be lucky with your Formula 1 selections, and do think ahead: the best time to back a Formula 1 weekend is pre-flop, to use a poker term: look at the Thursdays, before practice and certainly before qualifying, because that’s where the value usually appears. Right, let’s get off Formula 1 and look at some horse racing, because it’s a big weekend in Newmarket.

Roy: All right, horse racing, and what a great weekend for the sport. Every Saturday in summer is special, but this one especially: meetings at Ascot, Chester, York and Salisbury, an evening card at Hamilton, but the showstopper is Newmarket, an eight-race card featuring the Group 1 July Cup, all on ITV. Great news that the big three are standing their ground in a field of 13 for the famous sprint, and all three scored at Royal Ascot, so this is a classic showdown. Topping the betting is Venetian Sun, owned by Brighton chairman and renowned gambler Tony Bloom; she won the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot as a two-year-old, and although Almaqam proved a bit too good in the 1000 Guineas, she bounced back to take the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup and won again last time at Royal Ascot. Almaqam was another Royal Ascot Group 1 winner, taking the Jubilee Stakes, and notably the William Haggas-trained horse beat rivals from Japan, Australia and France in a driving finish where a quarter of a length covered the field, so that form is either very good or fairly average. The last Royal Ascot Group 1 winner in the field is Mission Central, who took the King Charles III Stakes over five furlongs for Aidan O’Brien: three from three this year, six wins from eight lifetime starts. It’s a hot contest, and not just a three-way battle: Japan’s Satono Reve was beaten a nose by Almaqam at Ascot, and another runner was only three-quarters of a length behind Venetian Sun last time. He could be the improver, because on their previous meeting he was three lengths back, so if he’s found two and a quarter lengths, who’s to say he can’t find a couple more and beat the favourite? As a Group 1 it’s level weights, but there’s weight-for-age: with the allowances Venetian Sun effectively races off bottom weight (she’s three and gets a 3lb fillies’ allowance), so the bookies make her the one to be with. Across at Ascot, the Group 2 Summer Mile is off at 2:27, also on ITV, and here I really like the French-trained Lunch, chasing a remarkable seventh consecutive win. This five-year-old grey has never raced in the UK, but French trainers don’t come to British shores for a day out, and certainly not for the weather, do they? Christophe Ferland, based in Chantilly, trains him; he’s yet to have a UK winner, but from only four runners. My spies tell me this is a serious racehorse: most of his wins are on the all-weather, but he’s matured with age, and as an entire, I suspect they’d love some UK Group-race success on his CV before he’s packed off to stud. Okay, that’s the Odds-On podcast, brought to you by bestbettingsites.co.uk, done and dusted for another week. Happy punting, everyone; we hope you find plenty of winners. On behalf of myself and Adrian Dane, best of luck with your punting in the week ahead. Until next time, be lucky.

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