Sunday 23 August 2026, 14:00 kick-off
Adrian Dane's bet builder for Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth, with the combined price compared across the top bookmakers and the reasoning behind every leg.
The same bet builder priced at our top bookmakers, best price highlighted.
Goals follow both of these sides around. 70 per cent of Manchester City’s last 10 went over 2.5 and 70 per cent of AFC Bournemouth’s did the same, with the pair averaging 4.9 goals a match between them. There is no great edge in the number, 4/9 implies 69 per cent and form says 70, but the leg fits the shape of the match and keeps the builder coherent.
Manchester City arrive with the stronger recent record: 5 wins from their last 10 in all competitions, while AFC Bournemouth have lost 1 of 10. The venue split backs it up: 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats in front of their own crowd. Manchester City have won 3 of the last 5 meetings too. There is no great edge in the number, 4/9 implies 69 per cent and form says 30, but the leg fits the shape of the match and keeps the builder coherent.
Head-to-head profile
Five signals, both sides, scaled to the same ring. Defence is inverted, further out means fewer goals conceded. Exact numbers live in the stat centre below.
Momentum, points collected, last 10
Cumulative points, oldest match first (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). Hover or tap the lines for each result.
The 2026/27 season has not started. These are 2025/26 and recent-form numbers, not 2026/27 form. They update once the new season is under way.
Recent form (last 10 matches, end of 2025/26 plus pre-season, all competitions)
The record
| Manchester City | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent W-D-L | 5-3-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Manchester City home / AFC Bournemouth away | 3-1-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Top scorers, 2025/26 season
Goals per game
Overall and venue split
| Manchester City | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored / game (overall) | 1.9 | 3 |
| Scored / game (venue) | 2.2 | 2 |
| Conceded / game (overall) | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Conceded / game (venue) | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Venue row is Manchester City at home and AFC Bournemouth away.
Goals-line hit rate
Overall and venue split
| Manchester City | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 (overall) | 90% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 (overall) | 70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 (venue) | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 (overall) | 30% | 50% |
Share of recent matches that went over each line. Both sides above 60% on Over 2.5 is the market to watch.
Form signals (both sides blended)
Dials blend both sides’ recent rates. They read the form, not a bookmaker price.
Both teams to score
| Manchester City | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS % (overall) | 60% | 80% |
| BTTS % (venue) | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
Last 5 meetings (Manchester City’s view)
Head-to-head record
| Meetings | 5 |
| Manchester City wins / draws / AFC Bournemouth wins | 3-1-1 |
| Goals (Manchester City / AFC Bournemouth) | 10 / 6 |
| Avg goals per meeting | 3.2 |
| Both teams scored | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
2025/26 final table
| Manchester City | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2 | 6 |
| Points | 78 | 57 |
| Played | 38 | 38 |
| Won-Drawn-Lost | 23-9-6 | 13-18-7 |
| Goals for-against | 77-35 | 58-54 |
| Goal difference | +42 | +4 |
Points and goals
Full-time result. Best prices across the market.
AFC Bournemouth win, our form model vs the market price
The bookmakers favour Manchester City, but our model gives Bournemouth a 35% chance of winning. The odds of 5/1 suggest Bournemouth have only about an 18% chance, so our model believes they are being underestimated. That makes Bournemouth at 5/1 look like good value.
Everything behind the picks. Tap any section to expand.
| Manchester City (last 10) | AFC Bournemouth (last 10) | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (W-D-L) | 5-3-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Home / away split | 3-1-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.9 | 3 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| BTTS % | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals % | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Pos | Pts | GF-GA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2 | 78 | 77-35 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 57 | 58-54 |
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