World Cup 2026 Betting Tips: England, Scotland & the Group-Stage Verdict

ODDS-ON WITH ADRIAN — EPISODE 2
World Cup 2026: Group-Stage Reaction
Recorded Wed 17 June 2026 | Host: Adrian Dane | bestbettingsites.co.uk

AD: So. England are up and running, and my word, they made us work for it. Four-two against Croatia, the very side that knocked us out back in 2018. A Harry Kane double, a moment of real quality from Jude Bellingham, and Marcus Rashford off the bench to finish it. Twice Croatia pegged us back level, so comfortable it was not, but England got the job done.

AD: And they were not the only headline. Lionel Messi rolled back the years with a hat-trick. Erling Haaland marked his World Cup debut with two. There is a lot to get into tonight.

AD: Quick word before we start. Odds-On is for over-eighteens only. We talk sports betting, and we will mention offers from licensed bookmakers, so please always gamble responsibly. Take your time, and there is free help and tools at GambleAware.org.

AD: First, though, where we are. The opening round is done, and it has given us plenty to chew on.

AD: Right. The opening round of group games is in the books, and it has been anything but routine. England were out tonight, and we will get to them properly. But the headlines this week were not all about England. Scotland made a little piece of history. Spain had a real fright. And there has been a wobble running right through the big European sides.

AD: Tonight I am going to mark my own homework from episode one, because I made some calls last week, and you deserve to know how they are looking. Then the two stories everyone is talking about, Scotland and Spain. The wider European picture. The England reaction. And the offers worth knowing about.

AD: Quick one up front. Odds-On is made by Best Betting Sites, and we may earn a commission when you sign up to a bookmaker through our links. That never changes our verdicts, but you deserve to know the relationship.

AD: So let us start by marking our own card. Last time out I made a few calls. How are they looking?

AD: This is something I want to do every episode from now on. Call it the Ledger. I make calls on this show, so I am going to come back and mark them, out loud, the good ones and the bad ones. No quietly forgetting the misses.

AD: First, the honest health warning. One round of games is a tiny sample. Nobody has won anything, nobody has gone home, and a single result can flatter you or fool you. So this is not a victory lap. It is just me being straight with you.

AD: So what has landed? Two things, nicely. I said Scotland simply had to beat Haiti, that it was the non-negotiable result of their group. They beat Haiti. And I tipped Morocco as a dark horse, a side that turns up expecting to trouble the elite teams, not just make up the numbers. They went and held Brazil. Both of those are looking good.

AD: What is stuttering? Also two. I warned that Spain looked too short at the top of the market, and that their ceiling drops without Lamine Yamal fully fit. They drew nil-nil with Cape Verde. And I called Ecuador a mean, awkward defence, built to frustrate. They lost their opener. So that one is not off to a flyer.

AD: The bigger one that is looking good is the lay-the-European-favourites angle. I said the market overloads on the big European names, and that a World Cup in the Americas tends to favour the South Americans. Well, a lot of Europe has stumbled out of the blocks, while over in the Americas, Argentina strolled out and Lionel Messi helped himself to a hat-trick. More on the European picture shortly.

AD: And then the file I marked pending last week, which we can now fill in. My Haaland and Norway line. I worried that Haaland might be starved of service in an awkward group. Four days in, that looks too cautious. He scored twice on his World Cup debut, Norway beat Iraq four-one, and he looked every inch the problem we all know he is. Happy to be wrong on that one. As for the England calls, I am going to grade those properly in a few minutes, because that is the main event tonight. The short version for the Ledger: they won, so the result was never really the issue. It was the how comfortably part of my call that did not quite land. More on that shortly.

AD: Right. Let us start with the one that has gone exactly to plan, and then some. Scotland.

AD: Scotland beat Haiti one-nil. And look, it was not a classic. It did not need to be. That was the result that was non-negotiable, the one I said they simply had to get, and they got it.

AD: But here is the part that genuinely surprises me. It puts Scotland top of their group after the opening round. Top. Above Brazil, above Morocco, both of whom drew with each other. For a country that has been to eight World Cups before this one, and never, not once, climbed out of the group, leading it after a round is brand new air.

AD: Now let us keep our feet on the ground. My line in episode one was that the realistic ceiling for this side is the last 32, and that the sensible bet was Scotland to qualify, not Scotland to win the thing. A one-nil over Haiti does not change that. If anything, it nudges qualifying a fraction more likely, not less.

AD: What it does is set up Friday. Scotland against Morocco, eleven o’clock our time. Win that, or even draw it, and a place in the last 32 is very much in their own hands. Lose it, and it gets nervy. That is the swing game of their whole tournament.

AD: And that Morocco game matters so much because of what Morocco have just done to Brazil.

AD: Brazil one, Morocco one. Read that back for a second. Brazil, a five-time world champion, dropping points in their opening game. Now, I did flag in episode one that this is a flawed Brazil, only fifth in South American qualifying, rebuilding under Ancelotti. But still. A draw, in game one, to a side plenty of people wrote off as makeweights.

AD: Except Morocco are not makeweights, are they. They are exactly who I said they were. Semi-finalists in 2022, the first African nation ever to get that far, and a team that now walks into these tournaments expecting to take something off the big names. They lined up against Brazil and got their point. That tells you everything.

AD: So what does it mean for Scotland? It means the group has cracked wide open. Brazil suddenly look beatable, at least for a draw. Morocco look the real second force in the group. And Scotland are sitting top of the pile.

AD: Which is exactly why Friday is so big. Scotland against Morocco could decide who finishes in that top two alongside Brazil, and who is left scrapping for one of the best-third-place spots. It is the tie the whole group now turns on.

AD: From a group going to plan, to a favourite who got a proper fright. Let us talk about Spain.

AD: Spain, nil-nil with Cape Verde. Cape Verde. A country of around half a million people, at their first ever World Cup, holding one of the favourites for the whole tournament.

AD: Let me be fair to Spain first, because that is only right. It is one game. Big sides often start slowly at a tournament, feeling their way in. A draw is not a disaster, and they will fully back themselves to win the group from here.

AD: But I am not going to pretend this is not exactly the stumble I flagged. In episode one I made two points about Spain. One, that they looked too short at the very top of the market. And two, that their ceiling drops without Lamine Yamal firing, and he came into this tournament easing back from a hamstring injury. A blank against a debutant nation is that worry showing up early.

AD: And it leaves them below the debutants Cape Verde in their group after one game, with nothing to show for it. That is simply not where a co-favourite expects to be.

AD: So here is the angle. I am not telling you to lay Spain blind off the back of one quiet night. What I am saying is that the case I made last week, that the short European favourites are vulnerable, and there is better value elsewhere, just got itself a little support. If you fancied a European side to go all the way, there are smarter ways in than the win-only outright.

AD: And Spain are not on their own here. There is a wobble running right through the European sides.

AD: This, for me, is one of the quieter stories of the opening round, and it is worth marking carefully, because the picture filled in as the week went on.

AD: With the first round now basically complete, of the sixteen European sides that have played, just seven have won. Now, in fairness, the very biggest names mostly came good in the end. Germany put seven past Curacao. France beat Senegal three-one. England, as we have just seen, got their win. But look at the layer just below them, the sides the market still prices up short. Spain, held nil-nil by a debutant. The Netherlands, held by Japan. Portugal, held by Congo. Switzerland, Belgium and Bosnia, all drawing their openers. And Czechia, Turkey and Croatia, all beaten.

AD: Now here is why that matters to your betting. It is the early evidence for the case I keep coming back to on this show. The market piles in on the big European names, every single tournament, out of pure habit. But the history of World Cups staged in the Americas quietly favours the South American sides. And right on cue, while Europe was drawing and losing, Argentina walked out and Lionel Messi helped himself to a hat-trick. That thesis is breathing.

AD: And the caveat, because I will always give you the caveat. It is one round. It is a tiny sample. Germany and France both look serious. You do not bet the farm on a narrative four days into a tournament. But it is a thread well worth pulling all the way through, and I will keep marking it on the Ledger.

AD: And since we are handing out verdicts tonight, let me give you a brand new one. The Wobble of the Week. And it can really only go to one side. Spain. A co-favourite for the whole tournament, held goalless by Cape Verde, a nation of around half a million people at their very first World Cup. That is the wobble of the round.

AD: So that is our homework, and the wider picture. Now the one you have been waiting for. England.

AD: So. England four, Croatia two. And if you only glanced at the score, you might think job done, routine. It was not routine. It was chaotic, it was open, and at two-all with the game in the balance, it was a proper contest.

AD: Start with the ghost, because it matters. Croatia. The side that knocked England out of that 2018 semi-final, the one that still stings. Eight years on, England have their answer, and there is something in finally laying that one to rest. But the manner of it will give Thomas Tuchel plenty to chew on.

AD: Here is how it went. Harry Kane, from the penalty spot, gave England the lead. Croatia hit straight back through a superb Martin Baturina strike. Kane again, his second, this time from a corner, to make it two-one. Then Petar Musa squeezed in before the break to make it two-all. It took a moment of individual quality from Jude Bellingham, a run and a finish in off the post just after the restart, to put England back in front, and Marcus Rashford, off the bench, sealed it late for four-two.

AD: So the key men. Kane, two goals, and that takes him level with Gary Lineker on ten World Cup goals for England, the most any Englishman has ever scored at a World Cup. That Golden Boot call from last week could not have a better start. Bellingham, back to his brilliant best with the goal that turned the game. The forward line did its job. But the back line shipped two to Croatia, and that is the bit Tuchel will be working on before Ghana.

AD: What does it do to the group? England sit top of Group L after the opening round, three points, four goals scored. They are still strong favourites to win that group. But remember my line from last week. With England, the win was rarely the question. The value was always in how comfortably they would do it, and tonight told us comfortable is not a word for this England defence just yet.

AD: So one honest read, and no hard tip. The attack is genuinely exciting. The defence is a worry. And at the very top of the outright market, I still think there is better value than England. One straight read, take it or leave it.

AD: So with England in the books, how does the whole outright board look now?

AD: Let us run down the winner market after that opening round, because there were some real moves.

AD: France are the new favourites, in to around four to one after a comfortable three-one over Senegal. Spain, despite the wobble, are still holding firm at around six to one, which tells you the market is giving them the benefit of one quiet night. Germany, after putting seven on the board, are around sixteen to one.

AD: The South American case is very much alive. Argentina, after Messi’s hat-trick, have come in to around nine to one, and on that evidence you can see why. Brazil, who only drew, are out around fourteen to one.

AD: And England. After the win, they have firmed, in to around thirteen to two, the night’s big mover. Justified by the three points, tempered a little by the defending.

AD: Now read that England price the way we did last week. Thirteen to two is about a thirteen percent chance. And the favourites, France at four to one, are only about a one-in-five shot. That is the nature of a forty-eight team World Cup. Nobody is genuinely short, because nobody is safe. As of recording, of course, and all of these will keep moving.

AD: Enough on the winner. Let us get to the bets for the week ahead.

AD: Before we finish, let us look at the week ahead, and where I think the value sits. And I am going to start one more little habit here: the stat of the week.

AD: The United States, the hosts, beat Paraguay four-one in their opener. Four-one. The host nation turning up with real intent, and a reminder that the home sides can carry a crowd a long way at this tournament.

AD: Now the card for the week. Three tiers, the way we will do it every time, so you can hold me to them next episode. These are best prices across the books as of recording, so do shop around, oddschecker, bestbettingsites, before you take any of them.

AD: The banker. My most disciplined pick of the week, and at the time of recording it lives in the Scotland against Morocco game on Friday. And here the head has to overrule the heart. We have loved Scotland’s start, but Morocco are eight to eleven favourites for a reason. They went toe to toe with Brazil for a one-all draw, they were a semi-final side back in 2022, and Scotland are out at five to one in that match. So the banker is Morocco to win it, eight to eleven. Disciplined, not romantic.

AD: The value bet. This is the each-way mindset I keep banging on about. Backing a side to qualify from its group, or to reach a certain stage, rather than to win the whole thing. You get paid for the run, not just the trophy. And mine ties straight to that stat: the hosts, the United States, each-way at around forty-seven to one for the tournament. After a four-one opener, with a home crowd behind them, I want them to make a deep run, and each-way I am paid if they reach the latter stages, not only if they lift it.

AD: And the outsider. One bigger-priced shout, with a clear reason behind it, and I will always tell you straight that it is a punt, not a lock. Japan, around fifty-nine to one. Last episode I called them the most complete outsider in the field, and they backed it up, holding the Netherlands to a two-all draw. At that price, playing that football, they are a punt I am happy to have a small bet on.

AD: Quick discipline line, because it matters. These are prices at the time of recording, and they will move. No bet is a certainty. It is value and an opinion, that is all it ever is.

AD: If you fancy any of those, here is where to find the best price, and a free bet behind it. Eighteen and over, terms apply, and the full, terms-checked list is over at bestbettingsites.co.uk.

AD: A quick refresh on the offers, because they move, and some of the World Cup specials from episode one were time-limited.

AD: Some of those specials ran only to the twenty-ninth of June, so always check which are still live before you act. Then the standing welcome offers, and as always, shop around, because the amounts shift day to day.

AD: And the bit I have to say, and genuinely want to say, after naming any offer. Those are for new customers, eighteen and over only. Minimum stake, minimum odds and a time limit apply, free-bet stakes are not returned, and full terms are on each bookmaker’s site. Always check them before you bet.

AD: The full, live, terms-checked comparison is at bestbettingsites.co.uk. That is where I would point you.

AD: Before we wrap up, the bit that matters most.

AD: Whatever you back over the next month, set yourself a budget, and stick to it. Decide what you are happy to lose before a ball is kicked, and treat that as the whole of it. Betting should be fun, never a way to make money. Take time to think, and if it stops being fun, then stop.

AD: Over-eighteens only. There is free, confidential help and tools at GambleAware.org, or the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. And if you need to step away properly, you can self-exclude through GamStop. There is no shame in any of it. That is exactly what those tools are there for.

AD: Right. Let us send you off.

AD: What a night. England up and running the hard way, four-two, with Harry Kane already among the goals. That is where we are.

AD: Scotland top their group. Spain have a wobble on. And Europe’s big names still have plenty to prove. Friday it is Scotland and Morocco, for a place in the last 32, and we will be straight back after it.

AD: I am Adrian Dane, this has been Odds-On from Best Betting Sites. Back very soon, and mind how you bet.

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