Arsenal v Tottenham in the North London Derby
Last updated: March 10, 2021 by Leon Marshal
|Last Meeting:||Tottenham 2 Arsenal 0|
The North London derby is our featured game this week. Arsenal dropped points last weekend and are mid-table. Tottenham are back to winning ways, and three points are vital in their quest for European qualification.
Arsenal’s 1-1 draw with Burnley shouldn’t have been much of a surprise. Burnley are the draw masters, and this game was the fifth consecutive home draw for Sean Dyche’s team. It is also Arenal’s fifth consecutive game in which they have conceded at least one goal.
What will hurt Arsenal is that it was a game that was there for the taking. They took the lead in the 5th minute, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scoring from the spot. The 31-year-old has been in good goalscoring form since returning to the team, scoring three goals in three games in all competitions and could have scored two before converting the penalty.
Burnley’s equaliser will be replayed in football blooper showreels for years to come. Arsenal’s Granit Xhaka, under pressure from the Burnley attack, inexplicably opted to try and play his way out of trouble after receiving a short-pass from goalkeeper Bernd Leno. Attempting to play the ball to David Luiz, his ball instead hit Chris Wood’s chest, and the ball rolled into the net. A howler that Xhaka will not want to view again.
The game was far from over in the drama stakes, and the last five minutes of this encounter was as good as any on show at the weekend. Seeking a winner, the closing stages were all about Arsenal, who laid siege to the Burnley goal. Their pressure appeared to have paid off when the referee pointed to the spot and showed Erik Pieters a red card for handball. It appeared that the defender had handled it in real-time, but VAR correctly reversed the decision with replays showing it hit his shoulder. Even at this late stage, the drama wasn’t over; Burnley’s Ben Mee saved a certain goal from Aubameyang and Arsenal’s Dani Ceballos, who is on loan from Real Madrid, hit the post with almost the last kick of the game.
Arsenal’s recent form has been a mixed bag for the Gunners. Since the beginning of the year, they have had wins against West Bromwich (4-0), Newcastle (3-0), Southampton (1-3), Leeds United (4-2) and Leicester (1-3). They have dropped points in five games, three draws (Crystal Palace, Manchester United & Burnley) and suffered losses against Wolves (2-1), Aston Villa (1-0) and Manchester City (1-0).
Arsenal are currently in 10th, averaging 1.41 per game. In their last eight games, they are averaging 1.38, which is a drop of 2.1%. They have only kept a clean sheet at home in 23%, and BTTS at the Emirates is 46%. They have failed to score at home in 46% of games.
While Arsenal struggled to get the winner against Burnley, Tottenham had no difficulties getting past their opponents on Sunday, comfortably beating Crystal Palace 4-1. Justifying pre-game odds of 1/2, two goals from Gareth Bale and Harry Kane ensured an easy Sunday evening at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Christian Benteke did equalise for the visitors with Palace’s only attempt on goal in the first half, but a dominant second half ensured the points.
Tottenham’s recent good form, the win against Burnley, their third consecutive league win, has coincided with the excellent form of former Tottenham player Gareth Bale. When the Welshman joined Read Madrid from Tottenham in 2013, the Spanish giants paid £85m for the player, which is still the 8th highest transfer fee paid for a player in the world.
At the end of January, Spurs went on a bad run, losing six games in eight, including three-in-a-row against Liverpool, Brighton and Chelsea. They beat West Bromwich at the beginning of February before being knocked out of the FA Cup by Everton and losing their next league game against Manchester City. They beat Wolfsberger 4-1 away in the Europa League before suffering another league defeat, this time a 2-1 defeat against local rivals West Ham.
While the recent scalps of Burnley, Fulham, and now Crystal Palace are teams you would expect this star-studded team to beat, it does stop the recent slump. Bale’s contribution is evident; scoring and assisting against Wolfsberger (1st leg), an assist in the loss against West Ham, a goal against Wolfsberger (2nd leg), two goals and an assist against Burnley and the recent double against Palace. His performances only surpassed by those of teammate Kane, who was simply stunning against Palace, scoring two and assisting both of Bale’s goals.
Arsenal are currently in 7th, averaging 1.67 per game. In their last eight games, they are averaging 1.50, which is a drop of 10.2%. They have only kept a clean sheet away 31% of the time, and BTTS on the road is 54%. They have failed to score away in 23% of games.
Arsenal has lost three and drawn two in the last six games.
Emile Smith-Rowe is the only injury doubt for Arsenal. A hip injury makes him 50/50.
Tottenham are in better form, with four wins in six and three consecutive victories.
Tottenham have injury doubts over two players; Giovani Lo Celso and Serge Aurier.
|Arsenal (4-2-3-1):||Leno, Cedric, Luiz, Gabriel, Bellerin, Partey, Xhaka, Saka, Odegaard, William, Aubameyang|
|Subs:||Rúnarsson, Tierney, Holding, Soares, Chambers, Nelson, Azeez, Pepe, Nketiah|
|Tottenham (4-3-3):||Lloris, Aurier, Alderweireld, Dier, Reguilon, Sissko, Højbjerg, Bale, Ndombele, Son, Kane|
|Subs:||Sanchez, Doherty, Davies, Lo Celso, Moura, Bergwijn, Lamela, Rodon, Winks, Alli|
|Doubtful:||Lo Celso, Aurier|
So Far This Season
|Arsenal This Season||Tottenham This Season|
|11 (5)||Wins (away)||13 (6)|
|0 – 4 v West Brom||Biggest Win||1 – 6 v Manchester United|
|5 (3)||Draws (away)||6 (3)|
|0 – 3 v Aston Villa||Biggest Defeat||3-0 v Manchester City|
|Aubameyang (9)||Top Goal Scorer||Kane (16)|
|Y38, R5||Discipline||Y36, R1|
|46%||Failures to Score||23%|
|46%||Both Teams to Score Games||46%|
|54%||Over 2.5 Goals||43%|
|46%||Under 2.5 Goals||57%|
- The two sides have met 191 times; Arsenal dominates the derby with 80 wins against Tottenham’s 61 wins, and 50 draws between them. Recent games are evenly split.
- Arsenal drew 1-1 in their last game, Tottenham won 4-1 in theirs.
- Arsenal’s recent form is 2% lower than their season average, but the goals scored is up 15.4%.
- Tottenham’s recent form is 10.2% lower than their season average, and the goals scored are down 11.8%.
Head to Head
|Last 5 meetings between the two sides|
|Date||Competition||Game Result||First Goal-scorer|
|06-12-2020||EPL||Tottenham 2 – 0 Arsenal||Son 12’|
|12-07-2020||EPL||Tottenham 2 – 1 Arsenal||Lacazette 16’|
|01-09-2019||EPL||Arsenal 2 – 2 Tottenham||Eriksen 10’|
|02-03-2019||EPL||Tottenham 1 – 1 Arsenal||Ramsey 16’|
|19-12-2018||EFL||Arsenal 0 – 2 Tottenham||Son 30’|
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Arsenal started their game against Burnley full of purpose and could easily have been three or four up before conceding a horror goal which stunned the Gunners, who had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Results have not been great, with three defeats in six. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is likely to be the danger man, having netted three in three games.
Tottenham’s three consecutive wins in the league mean they are three points away from Europa League qualification and five away from Chelsea in 4th. Harry Kane and Gareth Bale are starting to build up a good relationship, both players scoring a brace in the 4-1 win over Crystal Palace. Kane also provided two assists in that game, and both players are likely to be a threat against Arsenal, who only keep a clean sheet at home in a fifth of their games.
Although often accused of being too defensive with the attacking players they have, we expect an attacking performance from Tottenham, who we believe will outscore Arsenal in this one. A straight to win bet @ 13/8 with bet365 is worth backing, with the hope of an early pay-out if Tottenham takes a two-goal lead anytime. A Tottenham win and BTTS is priced @ 4/1, which also appeals.