Can West Ham earn a vital three points against Burnley?

Last updated: March 9, 2018 by Leon Marshal

Game details

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Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00
Venue: London Stadium
Home Team Form: DLWLL
Away Team Form: DDLDW
Last Meeting: Burnley 1 – 1 West Ham
Competition: Premier League

A string of defeats has landed West Ham back in danger, while Burnley finally got back to winning ways last week. Seven places and ten points separate these two teams who both have something to play for, though for very different reasons.

Rewind the clock back just four weeks ago and it looked like David Moyes had turned things around at West Ham and they would cruise to safety. Three defeats in their last four games have put them right back in the relegation mix however. Last week’s defeat to fellow strugglers Swansea should be a wake up call that West Ham are anything but out of the woods yet. The silver lining is that all three of those defeats have come away from home. West Ham won their last home game against Watford three weeks back and are a better team at the London Stadium. Once again though, the team is plagued by injuries. Winston Reid sustained in a knee injury in the match against Swansea and the news that he is out for the rest of the season is a real hammer blow for a West Ham defence that is also without Obiang and Masuaku who are injured and suspended respectively, while Ogbonna and James Collins are fighting to be fit. Thing look brighter elsewhere, where Michail Antonio is refinding scoring form of former seasons and Marko Arnautovic continues to haunt defences. But this game will be won or lost at the back for West Ham and they have to improve defensively to have any chance of staying up.

Burnley themselves had defensive problems for a long time after long-term injuries to James Tarkowski and Tom Heaton. Both are back now and Burnley grabbed their first win since last December last week against Everton. After a huge run without a win, that will likely motivate the Clarets to finish the season strongly, with a sixth place finish well within their grasp. Scoring goals has always been something of an issue for Burnley. That owes something to their cautious approach, but the two goals they scored last week was the first time Burnley had scored more than once in a match since Boxing Day last year. With West Ham’s defence the worst in the league currently, Burnley may fancy their chances of finally grabbing a few more goals than usual.

Team News

A huge blow for West Ham is the news that Winston Reid will be out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.

That leaves the Hammers looking very thin in defence. Obiang is still injured, while Ogbonna and Collins are fighting to get fit in time for this match.

After long injuries, the Burnley defence is finally back to full strength with James Tarkowski back available.

The injury problems for Burnley are in midfield instead. Defour, Arfield, Brady and Walters are all unavailable.

Expected Line-Ups:

West Ham (4-3-3): Adrián, Rice, Collins, Cresswell, Zabaleta, Kouyaté, Noble, Evra, Lanzini, Hernández, Arnautovic
Subs: Hugill, João Mário, Byram, Hart, Antonio, Cullen, Browne, Ogbonna
Injured: Reid, Byram, Obiang, Fernandes, Carroll
Doubtful: Collins, Ogbonna
Not available: Masuaku
Burnely (4-4-2): Pope, Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Ward, Lennon, Cork, Westwood, Gudmundsson, Hendrick, Barnes
Subs: Nkoudou, Marney, Vokes, Wood, Lindegaard, Bardsley, Long
Injured: Heaton, Defour, Arfield, Brady, Walters
Not available:

So Far This Season

. . .
West Ham So Far This Season Burnley So Far This Season
14th League Position 7th
5 (2) Wins (away) 6 (4)
4 – 1 vs. Huddersfield Biggest Win 3 – 2 vs. Chelsea
4 (5) Draws (away) 4 (6)
0 – 4 vs Everton Biggest Defeat 0 – 3 vs Manchester City
Marko Arnautovic (7) Top Goal Scorer Ashley Barnes (5)
Y61, R2 Discipline Y53, R0
7 Failures to Score 11
7 Clean Sheets 10
58% Both Teams to Score Games 37%
58% Over 2.5 Goals 24%
42% Under 2.5 Goals 76%
  • West Ham have one of the worst goal differences in the league, which could come back to haunt them with so many teams battling to stay in the league.
  • Remarkably, just 24% of Burnley’s games have featured over 2.5 goals. Burnley always keep things tight at the back then, but that also shows they struggle to score, as despite their higher position in the league, they’ve failed to score four more times than West Ham.
  • West Ham also have the worst discipline record in the league. They need to win here and if things don’t go their way, they could pick up more yellow cards.
  • Another remarkable fact is that despite Burnley not winning a game between 12 December and 3 March, they remained in seventh spot in the table the whole time.

Head to Head

Last Five Competitive Meetings Between The Sides
Date Game Result Round First Goal-scorer
14/10/2017 Burnley 1 – 1 West Ham Premier League Antonio 19′
21/05/2017 Burnley 1 – 2 West Ham Premier League Vokes 27′
14/12/2016 West Ham 1 – 0 Burnley Premier League Noble 45′
02/05/2015 West Ham 1 – 0 Burnley Premier League Noble 24′
18/10/2014 Burnley 1 – 3 West Ham Premier League Sakho 49′

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Despite West Ham’s poor results of late, their home form remains strong. Unbeaten at home since before Christmas, West Ham have won twice and drawn twice in their last four home games. West Ham have also beaten Bunley in four of the last five encounters between the two teams, while drawing the other.

However, the Hammers are once again having to contend with a string of injuries in defence, while Burnley will be boyed by finally getting a win. This will be a real battle for West Ham then, who know they still need a few more wins to ensure safety. With the West Ham defence the way it is, we fancy both teams to score as a safe bet here, which you can get at Paddy Power.