Will Arsenal Spoil Tottenham’s Premier League Hopes?

Last updated: April 27, 2017 by Leon Marshal

Game details

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Kick-off: Sunday, 4.30pm
Venue: White Hart Lane
Coverage: Sky Sports 1 (HD, Ultra HD)
Home Form: WWWWWW
Away Form: LDWLW
Last Meeting: Arsenal 1 – 1 Tottenham
Competition: English Premier League

Few teams dislike each other as much as Tottenham and Arsenal. While traditionally Arsenal have had the upper hand, leading them to tauntingly call their annual success over Spurs “St Totteringham’s Day”, Tottenham are now poised to finish ahead of Arsenal for the first time since 1995. Yet they have a hugely significant test this weekend; taking on the gunners at White Hart Lane.

Tottenham also have the added pressure of chasing champions Chelsea, still four points away. Their past eight premier league matches have ended in a win, showing incredible nerve to keep clawing back into seemingly foregone matches. Wednesday’s game against Crystal Palace was typical of that never-give-up spirit, managing to find that one crucial goal after a brilliant piece of skill by Christian Eriksen. But history has a way of chasing the Spurs, who always seem to choke at the fag-end of the season.

Arsenal face a much different challenge. With the added shame of being behind their fiercest rivals, and still holding onto hope of a fourth place finish, they will need to bring out all their big guns in order to challenge Spurs greatest ever Premier League team. For Arsene Wenger, he will see this as a massive opportunity to silence the critics, and reestablish Arsenal as a major premier league force. Expect him to bring out his best Arsenal side.

If the previous few head-to-heads between the teams – four out of the last five games ending in draws – has taught us anything, this ought to be a tight affair. Nevertheless, the stakes have rarely been this high. Tottenham have already beaten their total points tally of last season, and the chances of them chasing Chelsea – perpetually unable to keep a clean sheet – remain much higher than the one-in-a-lifetime Leicester team last year. With Tottenham going for the gold and Arsenal wanting to stop that from happening, expect tensions to ride high and the goals to come aplenty.

Team News

Arsenal may be without powerhouse defender Laurent Koscielny after he picked up a knock against Leicester.

Star striker Alexis Sánchez should play this weekend, despite his nasty throw-in altercation with Christan Fuchs.

Mousa Dembele remains a major doubt this weekend after twisting his ankle against Crystal Palace.

Danny Rose is expected to return to fitness on the 30th, but it is unlikely he will play.

Expected Line-Ups:

Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Lloris; Davies, Vertonghen, Alderweireld, Walker; Dier, Wanyama; Son, Alli, Eriksen; Kane
Subs: Janssen, Nkoudou, Trippier, Sissoko, Wimmer, López, Walker
Injured: Vorm, Winks, Lamela
Doubtful: Rose, Dembele
Not available:
Arsenal (3-4-2-1): Cech; Gabriel, Holding, Gibbs; Bellerin, Ramsey, Xhaka, Monreal; Özil, Oxlade-Chamberlain; Sánchez
Subs: Giroud, Walcott, Welbeck, Martinez, Elneny, Coquelin, Mertesacker
Injured: Mustafi, Cazorla
Doubtful: Koscielny
Not available:

So Far This Season

. . .
Tottenham This Season Arsenal This Season
2nd League Position 7th
22(7) Wins (away) 18 (7)
5-0 vs. Swansea Biggest Win 1-5 vs. West Ham
8 (6) Draws (away) 6 (3)
2-0 vs. Liverpool Biggest Defeat 3-0 vs. Crystal Palace
Kane(20) Top Goal Scorer Sánchez (19)
Y54, R0 Discipline Y54, R2
4 Failures to Score 3
9 Clean Sheets 7
45% Both Teams to Score Games 66%
52% Over 2.5 Goals 72%
48% Under 2.5 Goals 28%
  • Michael Oliver will take charge of this fixture. Of the 17 Arsenal games he has refereed, they have won only three of them.
  • Wenger has denied claims Arsenal will play to only stop Tottenham’s title bid, stating that: “What is most important is that we go there, try to win the game and focus on our performance.”
  • Alexis Sáchez has been on fire for Arsenal this season. William Hill are giving him tasty odds of 29/20 to score anytime.
  • Dele Alli, recently awarded the PFA best young player of the year, has been Tottenham’s star man. Bet365 are giving him odds of 11/2 to score last.

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings between the two sides
Date Competition Game Result First Goal-scorer
06/11/2016 English Premier League Arsenal 1 – 1 Tottenham Wimmer (o.g.) 42′
05/03/2016 English Premier League Tottenham 2 – 2 Arsenal Ramsey 39′
08/11/2015 English Premier League Arsenal 1 – 1 Tottenham Kane 32′
07/02/2015 English Premier League Tottenham 2 – 1 Arsenal Özil 26′
27/09/2014 English Premier League Arsenal 1 – 1 Tottenham Chadli 15′

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Tottenham are the bookies’ favorite for this game, with odds of 20/23 for the win at Coral. Yet, with each successive win, the odds of them carrying on this form become more and more unlikely. Punters looking for real value might do well to bet on Arsenal to win or draw, with highly reasonable odds of 10/11 offered. Yet given Harry Kane’s love of goals, Betway are offering brilliant odds of 33/1 for him to score first and Tottenham to win 1-0.

Perhaps the most lucrative value can be found in the over/under 2.5 goals market. Added together, both teams are likely to play in games with 3 goals or more 62% of the time. While there isn’t much value to be found betting on over 2.5 goals by itself, if you back an Arsenal win at the same time, then William Hill give very decent odds of 7/2. If you want to stay safe and bet on a result that has been seen the last four out of five head-to-heads, the same operator are offering a draw and both teams to score for a highly decent 16/5.