Can Liverpool jump up the table with a win at Wembley?
Last updated: October 18, 2017 by Leon Marshal
|Home Team Form:||WDWWW|
|Away Team Form:||LDWDD|
|Last Meeting:||Liverpool 2 – 0 Spurs|
While most teams do better at home and struggle to win away, Tottenham have been finding their home fixtures to be a permanent thorn in their side. With the pressure on Pochettino to finally convert Spurs’ growing form into silverware, they will need to improve massively at their temporary home stadium at Wembley in order to have any hope. So far it feels like a curse: Nevermind the endless semi-finals and finals lost against Chelsea, they have only won one league game of their last four at the vast stadium. In comparison they have four for four away. The last win against Bournemouth – ranked second-bottom in the league – may give them cause for celebration, but Liverpool should be a much harder fixture.
The Red’s last match, albeit against a woeful Maribor, cannot help but give them a psychological boost. Assured goals courtesy of Firmino, Salah, Coutinho, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Alexander-Arnold saw them effortlessly beat the Slovenians 7-0. Tottenham faced a much more difficult opponent in the form of Real Madrid, managing to dig in for a well-deserved 1-1 draw. One would suspect that, given both teams played on the same day, that Liverpool will recover a lot quicker and be much fresher than Spurs even if they have to make that long journey down the M40.
Liverpool can also look to history for encouragement. Without a loss against Tottenham since 2012, they will go in confident that they can register at least a draw; a reasonable outcome given Spurs’ home form. Nevertheless, with their main man Sadio Mane still out on injury, Firmino and Salah will have to step up to the plate to impress against Tottenham. Spurs’ on the other hand, will have to rely on Kane to continue his winning form. But it’s the home problem again: Harry, for all his magic, hasn’t had a single goal at Wembley all season. If they lose against Liverpool this weekend then the Wembley problem is going to get a lot bigger.
Ian Wright has said that Tottenham have the ability to win big tournaments, but Daniel Levy needs to ‘step into line’ and start spending more money on top talent.
Rio Ferdinand has erred on the side of caution in comparing the brilliant form of both Kane and Ronaldo, stating that: “Can you compare Cristiano and Harry Kane? Of course not, CR7 has done it at the top level for many years, Kane is just getting started.”
Oxlade-Chamberlain came off the bench to score for Liverpool on Tuesday, and sees future opportunities in the Premier League: “I need to keep developing and learning a new style of play here and get used to that and then whenever I get my opportunities try to do as well as I can.”
Many interesting stats were broken during Liverpool’s huge Champions League win. It was the biggest Champions League away win by a Premier League side, and saw an English side score four goals in the first half of a European game for the first time.
|Tottenham (4-2-3-1):||Lloris, Alderweireld, Sánchez, Vertonghen, Trippier, Davies, Dier, Son Heung-min, Eriksen, Alli, Kane|
|Subs:||Vorm, Llorente, Rose, Foyth, Aurier, Winks, Sissoko|
|Doubtful:||N’Koudou, Davies, Dembele|
|Liverpool (4-3-3):||Mignolet; Gomez, Matip, Klavan, Moreno; Wijnaldum, Henderson, Coutinho; Salah, Sturridge, Firmino|
|Subs:||Karius, Milner, Lovren, Can, Ward, Solanke, Oxlade-Chamberlain|
|Injured:||Mane, Lallana, Clyne, Bogdan|
So Far This Season
|Tottenham So Far This Season||Liverpool So Far This Season|
|5 (4)||Wins (away)||3 (1)|
|0 – 4 vs. Huddersfield||Biggest Win||4 – 0 vs. Arsenal|
|2 (0)||Draws (away)||4 (2)|
|1 – 2 vs Chelsea||Biggest Defeat||0 – 5 vs Man City|
|Harry Kane (6)||Top Goal Scorer||Salah (4)|
|Y12, R1||Discipline||Y13, R1|
|1||Failures to Score||2|
|38%||Both Teams to Score Games||50%|
|50%||Over 2.5 Goals||50%|
|50%||Under 2.5 Goals||50%|
- Tottenham have had no draws away, and Liverpool have had half their draws on the road. Perhaps both teams will draw this weekend?
- With 13 goals after 114 shots on goal this season, Liverpool’s conversion rate is 11.4%. Tottenham are much higher, with a conversion rate of 14.9% with 15 goals after 101 shots on goal.
- Even with his woeful home form, Kane’s goal ratio remains at 0.75 per game. Will he score this weekend?.
- Between both teams, only five goals have come from set piece situations. Will we see someone break the mold this weekend?
Head to Head
|Last Five Competitive Meetings Between The Sides|
|Date||Game Result||Round||First Goal-scorer|
|11/02/2017||Liverpool 2 – 0 Tottenham||Premier League||Mané 16′|
|25/10/2016||Liverpool 2 – 1 Tottenham||League Cup||Sturridge 9′|
|27/08/2016||Tottenham 1 – 1 Liverpool||Premier League||Milner 43′ (pen)|
|02/04/2016||Liverpool 1 – 1 Tottenham||Premier League||Coutinho 51′|
|17/10/2015||Tottenham 0 – 0 Liverpool||Premier League||—|
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Despite my plumping for Liverpool to win, they are the outsiders at William Hill with odds of 9/4 compared to Tottenham’s 6/5. This is what arguably makes backing the Reds a really tasty proposition. You can combine Liverpool to win with both teams to score at odds of 4/1.
As for the goal markets, both teams have scored over 2.5 goals 50% of the time, yet at the same operator the odds for over 2.5 goals is at 13/20 and under 2.5 goals is 23/20. This difference in odds prices means that there is potentially a factor that they haven’t considered, allowing you to get the edge depending on which way you go. Nonetheless, if you really believe Kane will deliver, you will still get very decent odds for him to score and Tottenham to win at 9/4.