Can Swansea Contain High-Flying Liverpool?

Last updated: September 27, 2016 by Leon Marshal

Game details

. .

Kick-off: Friday, 8pm
Venue: Liberty Stadium
Coverage: Sky Sports 2
Home form: LLDLL
Away form: LDWWW
Last season: Swansea 3 – 1 Liverpool
Competition: The Premier League

Saturday’s early kick off sees Swansea City host Liverpool at the Liberty Stadium. The home side are heading into crisis mode after a poor start to the season. Just 4 points from a possible 18 sees Swansea languishing in 17th place currently, with just 1 win and a draw to their name. The visitors on the other hand are one of the form teams 6 weeks into the season. A surprise loss to Burnley is the only blip on Liverpool’s record so far, who sit comfortably in 4th, scoring the most goals in the league in the process.

Swansea’s results may have been poor but there are some positives to take from the performances. Their schedule has been harsh – champions Leicester, Man City and Chelsea have all already been played – but there can be no excuses in the Premier League. The Swans are scoring goals and that should only improve when record signing Borja Bastón reaches full fitness and can be included in the starting line up. That may be unlikely this week, which means that Llorente will remain the target man in the Swansea attack.

On the other hand, Liverpool are currently one of the form teams in the league. 11 goals in their last 3 games has made them the league’s top scorers and the 4th best form team in the league. Key to their success is the creativity and attacking instincts of the team’s midfield talent. Sadio Mané, Phillipe Coutinho, Adam Lallana and Roberto Firmino are all scoring and creating goals; so much so that they are keeping striker Daniel Sturridge out of the starting 11. There’s a new found depth to the squad after some great summer signings and many punters are tipping this to be the year that Liverpool finally reach their potential. They’ll have to tighten up in defence if they want to do that however. While they are comfortably winning games, their tactic has had to be outscoring opponents, as the club is without a clean sheet as yet.

Team News

Swansea will be hoping record signing Borja Bastón reaches full fitness soon. He has made cameo appearances in the last 2 matches but is yet to start for the Swans.

Other than this there are no new injury concerns. Van der Hoorn started the last match in defence, though after a shaky performance and a need for improvement in the defensive line, we could see rotation there.

Jürgen Klopp has all his attacking options at his disposal. We may see Sturridge start, but with such a strong performance last time out, the manager may want to stick with the same starting 11

Dejan Lovren missed out last time through illness and was replaced by Klavan but looks to have recovered in time to be available. Simon Mignolet also saw his place in goal lost to summer signing Loris Karius, who is now expected to continue as first choice goalkeeper.

Expected line-ups:

Swansea (4-2-3-1): Fabianski, Rangel, van der Hoorn, Amat, Naughton, Britton, Cork, Sigurdsson, Fer, Routledge, Llorente
Subs: Taylor, Ki Sung-yeung, Mawson, González Tomás, Nordfeldt, Barrow, Montero
Injured: Dier, Emnes
Not available:
Liverpool (4-1-4-1): Karius, Clyne, Matip, Klavan, Milner, Lallana, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Mané, Firmino, Coutinho
Subs: Sturridge, Grujic, Lovren, Lucas, Mignolet, Can, Origi
Injured: Sakho, Gomez, Ojo
Not available:

So far this season

. . .
Swansea this season Liverpool this season
17th League Position 4th
0 (1) (at home) Wins (away) 2 (2)
1-0 vs. Burnley Biggest win 5-1 vs. Hull
1 (0) (at home) Draws (away) 0 (1)
1-3 vs. Man City Biggest Defeat 0-2 vs. Burnley
Leroy Fer (3) Top scorer Phillipe Coutinho (3)
Gylfi Sigurdsson (1) Assist Leader Phillipe Coutinho (3)
Y10, R0 Discipline Y12, R0
2 Failures to score 1
1 Clean Sheets 0
3 Both Teams to Score Games 5
3 Over 2.5 Games 4
3 Under 2.5 Games 2
  • Swansea are in a dismal run of form and will have their work cut out for them to turn things around against Liverpool. Adding to their 1 clean sheet so far seems unlikely against the league’s top scorers.
  • Liverpool are the top scorers in the league and are in fantastic form after winning their last 3. The likes of Phillipe Coutinho and Adam Lallana will be expecting to get on the scoresheet again against a struggling Swansea.
  • Swansea have only managed more than 1 goal in a match once so far this season. Against a free scoring Liverpool they will likely need to up the ante as well as tightening up at the back.
  • It’s just as well that Liverpool are scoring so many as they are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season. Klopp will fancy this as the fixture to change this, so Liverpool may be just a little more defensive than usual.

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings between the two sides
Date Competition Game Result First Goal-scorer
01/05/2016 Premier League Swansea 3 – 1 Liverpool  Ayew 20′
29/11/2015 Premier League Liverpool 1 – 0 Swansea Milner 62′
16/03/2015 Premier League Swansea 0 – 1 Liverpool Henderson 68′
29/12/2014 Premier League Liverpool 4 – 1 Swansea Moreno 33′
28/10/2014 League Cup Livepool 2 – 1 Swansea Emnes 65′

Conclusion & Betting Tips

This one looks pretty straightforward on paper and it’s unlikely that we will see a shock result, although of course we know that nothing in football is certain. We fully expect Liverpool to win and by a few goals and so will be backing Liverpool with a -1 handicap at around evens. Both teams to score also looks highly likely but is priced accordingly, so combining this with a Liverpool win brings the odds up to 8/5 at bet365.