Can West Ham pull off a shock victory in Manchester?

Last updated: December 1, 2017 by Leon Marshal

Game details

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Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00
Venue: The Etihad
Coverage: Sky Sports
Home Team Form: WWWWW
Away Team Form: DLLDL
Last Meeting: West Ham 0 – 4 Man City
Competition: Premier League

Two teams at opposite ends of the table meet on Sunday afternoon. While City have won all but one of their games this season, West Ham are the league’s current whipping boys.

Manchester City’s relentless winning streak very nearly came to an end on Wednesday evening against Southampton. It took a 96th minute goal by Raheem Sterling to separate the teams and maintain City’s winning run. David Silva was rested for that one, while Jesus and Agüero formed a rare partnership upfront. This was likely down to Leroy Sané’s absence, with the midfielder out with illness. He has been instrumental to the Citizen’s success of late and could be missed if not recovered in time to future. That said, City’s squad – and especially the midfield – is formidable and there are a host of adequate replacements waiting in line. With West Ham’s defensive woes of late, this could be a cricket score.

David Moyes’ picked up his first point as West Ham manager in his first home game last weekend, but he was brought crashing back down to reality after a thumping 4-0 loss to his old team, Everton. The Hammers have the league’s worst defensive record and will be hoping that Jose Fonte returns soon and that Winston Reid’s hamstring complaint doesn’t rule him out. If both of those are absent, you really worry for West Ham in this one. Away trips to Chelsea and Arsenal await after this and its very conceivable that the Hammers will emerge with zero points from those fixtures. It really is worrying times in East London.

Team News

David Silva was rested for the midweek match and should slot straight back into the side.

Leroy Sané was absent on Wednesday through illness. Should he not recover in time, then Sergio Agüero and Jesus could both feature upfront again.

Winston Reid and Jose Fonte could both miss out with injuries. With James Collins also out, the Hammer’s defence is spread thin.

Joe Hart is ineligible to face his parent club, but based on his performances of late, that might not be such a bad thing for West Ham. Adrián should get the chance to impress Moyes.

Expected Line-Ups:

Man City (4-3-3): Ederson, Walker, Kompany, Otamendi, Delph, De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Silva, Sterling, Agüero, Sané
Subs: Bravo, Danilo, Gündogan, Mangala, Bernardo Silva, Jesus, Zinchenko
Injured: Stones, Mendy
Doubtful: Sané
Not available:
West Ham (4-3-3): Adrián, Zabaleta, Reid, Ogbonna, Cresswell, Kouyaté, Obiang, Arnautovic, Lanzini, Masuaku, Carroll
Subs: Martinez, Sakho, Noble, A Ayew, Fernandes, Quina, Rice
Injured: Fonte, Collins, Byram, Antonio, Chicharito
Doubtful: Reid
Not available: Hart

So Far This Season

. . .
Man City So Far This Season West Ham So Far This Season
1st League Position 18th
6 (7) Wins (away) 2 (0)
7 – 2 vs. Stoke Biggest Win 2 – 0 vs. Huddersfield
1 (0) Draws (away) 1 (3)
Biggest Defeat 0 – 4 vs Manchester United
Sergio Agüero (8) Top Goal Scorer Chicharito (4)
Y25, R2 Discipline Y30, R2
0 Failures to Score 6
7 Clean Sheets 3
50% Both Teams to Score Games 42%
71% Over 2.5 Goals 57%
29% Under 2.5 Goals 43%
  • City have scored over 2.5 goals in almost 3/4 of their games. With West Ham’s current defensive woes, you’d expect at least three goals from City here.
  • West Ham have just three clean sheets all season. Against the league’s highest scorers, the chances of improving that number are almost zero.
  • Manchester City also have a good defensive record. The Hammers have scored just twice in their last four games, so City have every chance of making it eight clean sheets.
  • The Hammers have the worst discipline record in the league. Since City will dominate possession and frustrate the visitors, you’d expect that frustration to turn into more cards for West Ham.

Head to Head

Last Five Competitive Meetings Between The Sides
Date Game Result Round First Goal-scorer
01/02/2017 West Ham 0 – 4 Manchester City Premier League de Bruyne 17′
06/01/2017 West Ham 0 – 5 Manchester City FA Cup Touré 44′
28/08/2016 Manchester City 3 – 1 West Ham Premier League Sterling 7′
23/01/2016 West Ham 2 – 2 Manchester City Premier League Valencia 1′
19/09/2015 Manchester City 1 – 2 West Ham Premier League Moses 6′

Conclusion & Betting Tips

There’s really little doubt about the result here and barring an absolute shock, City will emerge comfortable winners. The real question, is how to extract value from the match.

Combining a win with goals is perhaps the best strategy. We’ll be going with a Manchester City win + over 3.5 goals, which you can get at 3/4 at Betway.