Can Burnley stop Manchester City?

Last updated: October 19, 2017 by Leon Marshal

Game details

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Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00pm
Venue: The Etihad
Coverage: Sky Sports
Home Team Form: WWWWW
Away Team Form: WDDWD
Last Meeting: Man City 2 – 1 Burnley
Competition: Premier League

It seems that no-one can stop Manchester City this season. Top teams, such has Liverpool, Chelsea, and Napoli have tried, but none have succeeded. Only Everton have taken a point from the Citizens, but this was really before City properly got going. Burnley too are going about their business well. Unbeaten in six games, they sit pretty in seventh position. They’ve already beaten Chelsea and held both Spurs and Liverpool to a draw this season, but this will be their toughest test.

The Manchester City train showed some signs of slowing against Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday, but they still emerged winners, after a thrilling encounter. Sergio Agüero is back in the squad after a car accident left him injured for a few weeks, so Guardiola may choose to rotate some of his attackers. City have scored 19 goals in their last 4 league games and with home advantage, they are sure to at least get on the score-sheet here.

Sean Dyche and Burnley will be more than satisfied with how things are going so far. They haven’t lost a game since the second week of the season and haven’t conceded more than one goal in a game since the opening day of the season against Chelsea. They won that match and have also drew with Liverpool and Spurs already, showing that they can cut it against the big boys. The plan here will likely be to stop City scoring, but that is much easier said than done. It seems almost inevitable that City will score at least one, so Dyche must have a plan B. No team has figured out how to stop City and truth be told, few are expecting Burnley to earn anything here.

Team News

Sergio Agüero is available again after a rib injury and may slot straight back into the starting 11.

Kevin De Bruyne has five assists in the last five games, while David Silva has four. Both are expected to start.

Chris Wood has three goals already in a Burnley shirt and will be the Clarets key man here. Scoring will be tough though.

Burnley have used just four defenders all season so far. Those four have been key to Burnley’s success and will all have to be at their best if Burnley want to take anything from this match.

Expected Line-Ups:

Man City (4-1-3-2): Ederson, Walker, Stones, Otamendi, Delph, De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Silva, Sterling, Jesus, Agüero
Subs: Bravo, Danilo, Gündogan, Sané, Mangala, Bernardo Silva, Y Touré
Injured: Mendy, Kompany
Not available:
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Pope, Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Ward, Brady, Cork, Defour, Arfield, Hendrick, Wood
Subs: Taylor, Vokes, Barnes, Berg Gudmundsson, Westwood, Lindegaard, Long
Injured: Heaton, Walters
Doubtful: Marney, Wells
Not available:

So Far This Season

. . .
Man City So Far This Season Burnley So Far This Season
1st League Position 7th
3 (4) Wins (away) 1 (2)
7 – 2 vs. Stoke Biggest Win 3 – 2 vs. Chelsea
1 (0) Draws (away) 2 (2)
Biggest Defeat 0 – 1 vs West Brom
Sergio Agüero (6) Top Goal Scorer Chris Wood (3)
Y14, R2 Discipline Y14, R0
0 Failures to Score 2
5 Clean Sheets 3
38% Both Teams to Score Games 50%
62.5% Over 2.5 Goals 12.5%
37.5% Under 2.5 Goals 87.5%
  • City’s unbelievable goal-scoring record continued last week as they put seven past Stoke. Two thirds of their games have featured over 2.5 goals.
  • Burnley have taken the opposite approach; just 12.5% of their games have had over 2.5 goals, as they haven’t conceded more than one goal in a match since the first week of the season.
  • Sergio Agüero is City’s top scorer, but the goals have been coming from all over. Both Sterling and Jesus have six goals, while Leroy Sané has five.
  • Along with not conceding many, Burnley haven’t scored many either. In fact, they haven’t scored more than one goal in any single game since the first game of the season either.

Head to Head

Last Five Competitive Meetings Between The Sides
Date Game Result Round First Goal-scorer
02/01/2017 Man City 2 – 1 Burnley Premier League Clichy 58′
26/11/2016 Burnley 1 – 2 Man City Premier League Sturridge 9′
14/03/2015 Burnley 1 – 0 Man City Premier League Boyd 61′
28/12/2014 Burnley 1 – 6 Man City Premier League Silva 22′
03/04/2010 Bunley 1 – 6 Man City Premier League Adebayor 4′

Conclusion & Betting Tips

You’d have to be very brave – or stupid – to bet against City here. The bookies have them priced super low at around 1/12, so there’s no value to be had. They’ve scored five or more in all but one of their last five league games, so combining them with a high goal margin seems to be the way to go.

That said, as we mentioned earlier, Burnley are resolute defenders and should offer a strong resistance to Manchester City’s attack. Combined with the fact City have played Champions League games and may rest and rotate players, we feel Burnley will limit City to three goals. For this reason, we’re going for a City win + under 3.5 goals, which you can get for 11/8 at Paddy Power